1. USC
2. Oregon
3. Oregon St
4. Arizona St
5. Cal
6. Washington St
7. Arizona
8. Washington
9. UCLA
10. Stanford
Pac-10 preview
I'm baffled by the complete lack of quality teams going into the season. I've long since defended the Pac-10 against those who don't respect the league because they don't watch any of their games. The Pac-10 race is usally exciting, and the teams are usually of a high caliber, though they suffer from being all about equal in talent. OK, but in 2004, if USC doesn't win the conference title, they should be ashamed of themselves.There's some good teams of a lower-top 25 caliber: Oregon, Oregon State, and Cal. Other than that, it's a wasteland of rebuilding projects and truly terrible teams. The two Washington schools both might field their worst teams in about a decade. The Arizona schools have already hit rock bottom, but even dramatic improvement only brings them to lousy. UCLA is wandering in the desert. Stanford is, well, Stanford. It's a bad conference, people. I usually defend them, but this year, I've got to agree with the majority.
ARIZONA. If Mike Stoops is half the coach his brother is, expect
Arizona to have a winning season this year. OK, that’s asking a bit
much, but it’s not like the cupboard is bare. Looking at the roster,
it’s tough to understand how the team was as bad as it was. They’ve
got some good safeties, okay line play, and a legit running back in
Mike Bell. The schedule is tough (no Stanford), but five or six wins
is possible.
ARIZONA ST. What the hell happened? We picked these guys to win the
Pac-10 and they just got their asses kicked. Walter’s still a good QB
and there’s talent everywhere, so it’s an open question to which season
was the fluke: 2002 or 2003? A weak defensive line just sunk the
defense, but I think the offense will rebound. They’ll put up lots of
basketball scores and pull an upset or two, but without a pass rush
they won’t play on January 1.
CAL. When a team like Cal is a consensus pick to finish 2nd in the
conference, you’ve got problems. They don’t stink, but this is a
pretty pedestrian team. Rodgers is a really good QB and he’s got a
great receiver in McArthur, but the running game is so-so. The defense
is decent against the run and absolutely terrible against the pass.
Color me
underwhelmed.
OREGON. The defense, a bugaboo of recent years, has improved to the
point it’s no longer a running joke. The return of Ngata from injury
shores up the d-line. And the offense looks ready to go. Clemens
finally is the undisputed starter, and the running game could improve
by leaps and bounds. This team could either collapse or make a run at
the conference title, keyed by the absence of USC from the schedule.
It’s one
of the more interesting teams in the nation.
OREGON ST. Derek Anderson had a rough year last year, and he’s a
supremely talented QB prone to very dumb play. They weren’t a good
rushing team even with Jackson, so now that he’s gone, they are in deep
trouble. The defense is pretty good, but prone to giving up big plays.
If Anderson learns to throw to his teammates, they are a USC upset
away from roses.
STANFORD. Guh. Aside from a 38-point outburst against ASU’s lousy
pass defense, this offense just couldn’t score. And the defense was
little more than blocking sleds for opposing offenses. This is a bad
team and there’s not much hope for improvement. They just aren’t any
good.
UCLA. Eight starters return from one of the worst offenses in the
country. They couldn’t run, throw, or block, but they did turn the
ball over a lot. The defense is solid, which will keep the Bruins out
of the lower division, but there’s really not any reason to think
they’ll win seven games.
USC. This team is loaded at the glamour positions, but there’s a huge
concern no one is talking about. They return exactly one starter on
the offensive line, and they will play four underclassmen this season.
The
offense won’t suddenly fall apart, but it will slow down a bit.
However, a
complete joke of schedule still gives them a shot at an
undefeated season.
WASHINGTON. I’m a big fan of line play as the key to a good team, and
Washington has terrible units on both sides of the ball. Like USC,
they’ve got playmakers at the glamour positions, just the Huskies
playmakers aren’t nearly as good. The lines will absolutely kill this
team.
WAZZU. A classic rebuilding year. Six starters total return.
There are
underclassmen starting everywhere (though the line is
surprisingly senior-laden). Honestly, we have no idea how good these
players are, so unless you’ve been sitting in on Wazzu practices,
neither do you. Expect them to take some lumps while they get
experience.
GIOIA'S TWO CENTS If you don’t pick USC, you’re a moron, because they’re clearly the best team in this conference. I have a feeling they’ll lose the opener @ VaTech. Even so, they’ll cruise through the schedule until November, racking up 7 in a row until the media decides to crown them the comeback kids or whatever. In short, the writers still think they won the championship last year, so we can expect them to feed us an endless polemic likening USC to Hektor, breaker of horses. OSU has a very tough schedule, so I suspect 5th is more likely for them than 3rd.