This is the most open endgame I've seen in my rather short career. Since joining this game in Fall 1907, I've played this game mostly on instinct. I've had to gamble on my assessments of people much more than I'd like. To summarise my performance, I rode my luck to a greater extent than I controlled my destiny. Thankfully, I had plenty of luck!
In Fall 1907, Russia had 11 centres, Turkey 8, France 8, England 4 and Italy 3. Survival for more than even two years was out of my hands. When I joined, a juggernaut was in full swing, with the previous Italy acting pretty much as Turkey's minion. Despite Russia being the overwhelming favourite for the solo, with England at his mercy, Turkey was unshakeable in his loyalty to his senior partner.
Italy's situation reminded me of an article about Janissaries in The Diplomacy Pouch. A Janissary is a smaller nation whose own chance of success is gone, used by Turkey to act as its vanguard in return for a guarantee of survival till the endgame. I don't like surviving at the whim of another, and I wasn't very impressed that Italy had got himself into this situation. Whatever the deal beforehand, my treasonous attempts to get Turkey to turn on his ally marked me for death, and the Sultan took an isolated Naples in my first season.
Two things kept me alive. Firstly, Jason handed Marseilles to me, letting me remain at 3 centres. Secondly the obstinate Turkey proved his arrogance by going on holiday for 2 weeks without telling the GM, forcing his removal. Laurence joined in his place and proved much more open to persuasion. He attacked Russia and the heat was off me.
The first misjudgement I made was how poor a player the former Russia was. As the hot favourite to win, I expected him to be pretty sharp, but clearly he came upon the lead by accident, because he never spotted the stab. This was despite Laurence disbanding a crucial unit in the fight against France instead of retreating, then building units in Constantinople and Ankara. I had counted on Russia pulling back his forces to counter the implicit declaration of war and stopping Turkey doing too well out of the situation. He completely missed the signs, though, and Turkey suddenly had 4 gains. The shock was too much for the rather amateur Russia - he resigned in a fit of pique and Charles joined us.
To avoid a Turkish whitewash, I had to reverse my allegiance after only one season, co-operating with Charles to contain Turkey's attack. Fortunately, I had persuaded Laurence to operate a blitzkrieg approach - going for territory over centres and driving straight through the likes of Vienna. This left him open to a sneak attack from me, which he didn't spot for an extra season, since we had agreed I would take Trieste and Vienna anyway. Charles' immediate retreat to protect his home centres was well performed but he let slip his tactical priorities in doing so, which may have helped me later in the game.
Laurence's defences were nightmarish to predict. I don't think Charles and I managed it once, despite heavy co-operation to that end. His manoeuvres were mecurial, but occasionally counter-productive. I remember one year he managed to lure a Russian army into Rumania and destroy it, very cleverly opening up a route into Ukraine. However, this gave Charles the fleet build he needed to stop a maverick Turkish fleet taking Norway, and eventually gave Russia dominance in the North Sea area. Still, he caused no end of troubles. I managed to flank him and make slow gains only through weight of numbers in the southeast.
The other major player was France. I assessed Jason as an ambitious, but flexible diplomat. He was clever enough to sacrifice a home centre to keep me going, but also to accept advice from me in my first season when I stumbled upon an invulnerable defence of Spain. However, I sensed that if he made no progress in Germany, he would look for opponents elsewhere. Half of his units were stalemated against Russia, who could have done with using them against Turkey, so the seeds of a truce were already sown. After the demise of England, it was fairly obvious that, sooner or later, he would get bored of an unwinnable war and come after me.
Again, good fortune came to my aid. Laurence had sent his fleets northwards from the Mediterranean to attack Russia from two sides. Instead of pulling them back, crushing me and securing his defences, he preferred attack as the best form of defence. He caused havoc in the northern seas: I assume his plan was to gain centres quickly in order to build units for his defence. Fortunately, he never managed this, and in his attempts to sustain his centre count, he attacked France. This meant that France was distracted long enough from attacking me for me to build my strength and plan my own attack. I had expected a Franco-Turkish alliance, which would have crushed me eventually, but it never emerged.
At this point, the game was very even. We all had between 7 and 11 units, with centres changing hands regularly. This ended the first phase of the endgame - the failure of the juggernaut - and the second phase could have seen anyone victorious.
Turkey and Russia were deadlocked in the east; France and Russia were deadlocked in the west. I was the only one with complete freedom. With the builds from my gains against Turkey, I responded to Jason's retaking of Marseilles with a counter-attack that proved very successful. Now, however, I was spread very thinly, and for a while my strategy was a little unsure. Charles became miffed with me for choosing to take Tunis with overwhelming force rather than send a fleet into a forward position. From that point I believe he began to lose faith in my commitment to the anti-Turkey alliance.
I noticed a movement of Russian forces from the Turkish front to Central Europe. At the same time, Charles' communications dried up suddenly. This made me very paranoid. If Turkey and Russia made peace, I'd face all three countries at once. I immediately (a little too quickly, maybe) offered a truce to Turkey in return for helping him break through against Russia. It was a huge gamble, because it involved him looking like he was moving away from Russia to attack me. At the same time, France appeared in Tyrolia (by accident or design? I couldn't tell) and I was on the edge of ruin should a Franco-Turkish alliance materialise. I banked on Laurence's cavalier spirit, arguing that to take Charles' home centres would be a greater victory than simply grabbing my neutral centres.
Again I was lucky. Although I came very close to losing a centre to France (a last minute change of orders one season managed to block a French attack in the nick of time), Turkey duly broke through against Russia; I drove France back and moved on Russia for the first time, taking the pivotal Munich.
My dash for the solo arose when Charles suddenly upped his diplomacy again. I'd never really wanted to attack Russia, and only did so because of pressure from Laurence, so I accepted the chance to make peace. Now, though, I was in the much more beneficial position of owning Munich. For the second time, I set about attacking Turkey in alliance with Russia. At this stage I wasn't sure whether to go for the solo, but two things made up my mind. Firstly, Laurence was still concentrating on attacking Russia more than defending. Secondly, Charles appeared to be distracted by real life concerns.
Apart from the reduced conversation - a good sign of distraction from a diplomat as polished as Charles - what gave me this idea was his rather peculiar move of F BAL - Lvn. Perhaps he wanted to keep his armies back to retake Munich, but an army in Livonia might have given him the chance to retake his home centres, which was why I urged a convoy. I decided that Charles was the only one who had the diplomatic enthusiasm to organise a stop-the-leader alliance, and that I should take my opportunity before he noticed the danger.
In Spring 1915 I made moves that I hoped were sufficiently unthreatening to Russia. Laurence appears to have a predisposition to attack the enemy unit rather than defend the spaces. Taking advantage of this gave me 16 centres, with Charles grabbing Munich back without warning. I expected no less, and spent hours devising a plan to take me to 18 centres by the end of 1916.
The best plan I could come up with relied heavily on no player having the time or inclination to look that far ahead, plus a certain amount of dispute in the stop-the-leader alliance. It also pivoted round overstressing to Charles the value of Munich, which I had already decided would not be a target SC unless all else failed. I hoped this would get me Belgium and stop him blocking off lines of retreat to Holland and Kiel.
As it happened, the stop-the-leader alliance appeared to be gratifyingly fractious. They needed to co-ordinate by Spring 1915 to stop me, by Fall 1915 to slow me down. But the other three nations continued to protect their own interests, I suspect through lack of energy, and I dealt with them separately. Charles took vital time out to destroy the Turkish Fleet in Barents Sea and I was able to overwhelm the Russian and French forces by applying pressure at more points than they could cover. Russia could only cover a couple of Holland, Munich, London and Edinburgh, so I went for them all. I couldn't hope to overcome Turkey's forces in South Eastern Europe, but his need to keep units protecting his Russian centres hindered his defences. This allowed me to balance my losses in Austria and the Balkans with gains in Turkey itself. Fall 1916 took a long time to adjudicate, but I already knew I had won.
In summary, the game probably could have done with a little more communication, but I'm glad for the lack, since that made it possible for me to win. I quite enjoyed it though, especially for coming back from the brink. Thanks for the game everyone, and thanks to Ian for keeping things going smoothly until real life took priority.