In past weeks I went over the American League “Swamp Things”, so I refer you back to those articles for more detailed explanations and definitions. Basically below is 15 or so National League players I think have a good chance to surprise and achieve beyond their expectation. Here we go, as usual in no particular order, but my first guy is someone I’m getting truly psyched about.
Name          Age      Comments
1. A. Rios    29        I love this guy more and more. In spring he’s the 4th outfielder but let’s take a look at what has to happen for him to get fulltime status. The Giant outfield is a malcontent aging Barry Bonds making contract threats, the always-fragile aging Eric Davis, and the fast fading Marvin Bernard. His competition is the dinosaur S. Dunston and the AAAA Calvin Murray. I say Rios gets 400-500 at bats and hits 30 taters .280-.300 with double digit steals, .370 OB .520 Slg.

2. Houston Pitchers (especially Elarton, Dotel, Reynolds, Wagner and Miller.) It is quite fashionable to compare Enron to Coors and people are jumping off Astros pitchers faster than a “Big Hurt” back peddle. I quote Stats Inc. Scouting Notebook 2001 edition; “Enron Field’s effect on offense is highly exaggerated. The Astros had a home-road run differential of +72. The Rockies, a truly mediocre offensive club had a home-road run differential of +298.”  It’s an offensive park but not that much. Bad pitchers pitched badly every where i.e. Lima. To top it off they are pushing the fences back more this year. Scott Elarton is the most exciting and promising young starter in the NL. (Until Ankiel proves he’s not going Steve Blass on us). The fact that people are dumping him means you must get him.

3. A Ochoa  29  I had this guy in a couple of leagues and every year I watched him get bounced from team to team and in his 100-200 at bats he put up solid numbers with that -4 arm. Fact is he’s been a stud since his minor league days and this year the road is open to play every day. My only concern is the platoon-mad Boone trying to prove how brilliant he is. 20-20 with 100 RBI and +.300 average possible.

4. E Durazo 27 The way I see it between the insanely stupid move of signing Grace and his wrist injury - he’s available pretty cheap. Wrist injuries historically take awhile to FULLY heal, so he may start slow, but appears to be healing quickly. If you’re rebuilding, definitely take the chance. Arizona will try to find at bats for him in the outfield etc. He as a big year in him and it’s coming. A trade would be nice.

5. S Rain  25  What a freak! Mysteriously cut from the pitching poor Cubbies and signed by the Royals to a minor league contract on the really pitching poor Royals. Well, Tony Muser cut him 2 days into camp as he missed 2 meetings and was late to practice both days saying only. “I’m too old for this s***.” So Steve has a bit of an attitude problem. It was also evident from reports that he was released by Cubs for the same reasons. He was just resigned by the Cubs and last year had the best skill set on the roster to close. With Gordon gimpy, he sits in a prime position to inherit a job if he shows up.

6. K. Millar 29  I love this guy one of the best over-looked cards in the set. The assumption is he has no job with Lee set at 1b. I refer you back to his card and see the adequate play at 1b, 3b, OF and I say he has a nice future as a utility guy with real thump...maybe not in Florida but somewhere.

7. P LoDuca/A Pena 29/25- Watch the Dodger camp carefully this spring. Kreuter is listed as the starter. Yeah right, no way he holds up over 162. LoDuca has the inside track on #2 and first shot at starter WHEN Kreuter fails. He’s got a little pop and good bat control. He’s not a long-term solution. Pena is who interests me as he has always been listed as the top catching prospect in their system but never got a real shot. I think he has a bit of the negative attitude as well. An interesting point is he’s out of options and can’t be sent down. The Dodgers have already announced they will keep 3 catchers because of this. I smell trade.

8. E Gagne 25 The young super star pitchers break our hearts and we are slow to forgive. There are 100’s of them (see R Halladay in AL). The LA press and fans were murder on him but I think he’s going to be a pretty good pitcher still. Maybe not this year but in a couple. In 1997 he was over-worked -197 ings and it effected him. He can be had cheap by scorned lovers.

9. V De Los Santos 25  Deep REM sleeper. Not confident in that Milwaukee pen? This guy has a very nice skills set. Over a 2-1 K/W rate, almost 9 strikeouts per 9 ings. Last years base stats don’t look that great, take out 2 bad outings (8 runs in 3.2 and 8 runs in 0.2 ings) his ERA was 3.39. More importantly his 2nd half was twice as good as his first half-young pitcher figuring it out. Could easily make Curtis a Curt again.

10. M Barrett 24  People are sour on him but it’s not that uncommon for hitters to struggle that first call up. ARod comes to mind. Don’t get me wrong he really sucked last year. The move to catcher should help but defense is a weakness. He didn’t get much AAA experience. He’s a risk but as an expansion team I picked him up unprotected in the expansion draft. Yep-I’ll take that chance.

11. M Bradley 23 I’m not sure if he’s under-rated or not. He went very late (2nd round) in my combined league draft behind guys like Payton, Pierre, Cox, Long. He’s raw and probably not ready but it’s not like Montreal has failed to produce outfielders or anything. He’ll play like Bergeron last year probably as he develops. Be alert he could drop. I had him rated as the 2nd best rookie OF prospect behind Patterson.
 

12. P Bergeron 23 He wasn’t that bad as he’s still only 23. Some owners are shaking their heads and are listening to your trade offer of a mid 2nd. Encouraging signs are his 2nd half numbers. OB- .343 up from .301. Slg. .366 up from .335. his walk % from 9-11%.

13. Ar. Ramirez 22  Quit jacking with him and play him! Or let him play in AAA without the constant 2-week call-ups, its not like Pitt’s going anywhere. He still only 22 seems like he’s been playing for years.

14. V Padilla 23  OK they sign every loser former closer they could get and will run through them all and the entire time they had the guy just sitting there. Just as well he’s a little young to close but he is the guy. Needs to get a little tougher vs. lefties.

15. Ramon E Martinez 28 Best middle infield utility player in baseball. Plays above average defense at 2B SS and 3B and gives a nice pop for a middle infielder. An injury away from a full time job. The Giants have a ton of these guys, Rios, Martinez, Crespo.... (Full disclosure: I’ve got to pimp this guy a tad as I’m holding out for a 2nd round pick in IBA trade negotiations. but I like him a lot).

16. To atone I’ll give you another deep REM sleeper H Frias 27. His numbers are horrid on the surface but his base skills suggest he has a break-out in him. His walk/strikeout ratio suggests .300 hitter not .100 hitter and he’s known as a very good glove. In the last round he may be there and in Arizona things could happen and suddenly the 2001 Craig Greback is in your lap. In my IBA league I’m cutting him to get down to my roster allotment and the plan was to sign him in a month as a free agent. So for pimping Martinez I sacrifice Frias. Of course no one from my leagues read this drivel...Right Junu?