I ran 10 auto replays of the 1987 National
League 5 with clutch off and 5
with clutch on. Clutch = runners in scoring
position with 2 outs
Sorted on Real Baseball Clutch category 2 Format: Real Baseball Average, Real Baseball Clutch, SOM Clutch on, SOM Clutch off, real rbi's(these are based on a rbi system designed by Baseball Analysis not really much different than a real rbi, used in this category only)
CHN .258 - .218 - .237 - .264 (708)
PHN .254 - .220 - .227 - .250 (690)
HON .253 - .228 - .235 - .251 (630)
LAN .252 - .233 - .214 - .236 (624)
CIN .266 - .237 - .256 - .263 (767)
ATN .258 - .239 - .246 - .243 (726)
NYN .268 - ,239 - .263 - .254 (806)
SFN .260 - .248 - .244 - .260 (762)
STN .263 - .252 - .271 - .260 (782)
PIN .264 - .254 - .256 - .253 (710)
SDN .260 - .257 - .240 - .243 (650)
MON .265 - .267 - .267 - .262 (725)
NL .261 - .241 - .246 - .254
When comparing all the sorted clutch on / clutch off averages side by side in analyzing the median change in clutch average the clutch on average was .008 less than the clutch off average. Of course, when averaging the averages in both categories the clutch on dropped clutch by the same .008.
When doing RBI's in like manner the RBI median change was 0 and the average rbi's dropped 3.20 rbi's with the clutch turned on. The median difference was occuring on the extreme ends when lined up in a sort.
Averages:
Clutch off 697.30 at bats, 177.18 hits,
225.00 rbi's
Clutch on 697.41 at bats, 171.65 hits,
221.78 rbi's
Real Clutch 669.58 at bats, 161.58 hits,
217.75 rbi's
7 teams dropped in their clutch averages.
3 teams stayed virtually even to their original clutch averages including
Montreal which was the only team that year to bat higher in the clutch
than their overall average. 2 teams STN and NYN were the only 2 to show
a substantial gain in clutch average with the clutch on.
I believe to a certain degree SOM is using
the clutch on switch to drop the SOM team average in the clutch a bit closer
to the real team clutch averages. I don't think the idea is to particularly
get the players individually normalized than to normalize the teams clutch
and with that a bit of rbi reduction and gain on the extreme ends as they
depart
from the median.
The Cards main benefactors Pendleton(big
time because he hit good in the
real clutch),Clark, Herr, and McGee.
The Mets main benefactors Tim Teufel (big time because he hit good in the real clutch), H. Johnson, Hernandez, and Carter all in smaller proportions, but Kevin McReynolds takes a big hit in the clutch because he was basically an extreme good bases empty hitter and really sorry with runners on base.
The Cubs non benefactors all the hitters basically except Dawson he gets a slight increase because he did hit a bit better in the clutch and with runners on. Dayett showed an increase in clutch, but I have no data on him.
The Expos with a clutch average closer to their overall batting average can have players weighted up or down on a team closer to their original clutch performance though not perfect. They are on the median (sort of speak) and can afford more give and take from the players plus remain team balanced in the clutch.
I believe SOM is normalizing for team clutch and weight the players based on their runners on base / clutch according to the effects they had on the team. The weights are distributed some how on a team according to the team normalization on the far ends of the league average then the team clutch is distributed to a player based on his weight within the team structure based on his performance.
Do I know the formula, no. However; the way SOM is addressing the clutch issue on a team basis is commendable, but would probably work much better if they normalized the players in the clutch to begin with.
BTW, the people which recommended not using clutch in draft leagues are probably right because the players ability in the clutch is some what a measurement of a teams extreme clutch performance more than the players ability entirely.
When SOM said it was a formula based on clutch it basically is, but is based more on team extreme performance clutch and the players are individually rated after that fact.