VALID 02/1200Z-03/1200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM...DTW-VPZ-PIA-20SSW UNI-25W STL-30W POF-SGT-ELD-SHV-DFW-OKC-20W ICT-HLC-20SE LXN-BVN-10S SUX-15S MCW-15N LNR-20N ETB-10ENE MBS--CON'T--DTW...

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK... SEE MAP FOR DETAILS...

.. DISCUSSION ..

CURRENT W/V IMAGERY INDICATES AN AMPLIFYING LONG-WV TROF CURRENTLY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... WELL DEFINED SHRT-WV/SPEED MAX IS CURRENTLY WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS WESTERN AZ... MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST AFOREMENTIONED SHRT-WV/SPEED MAX WILL BECOME DOMINANT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... HENCE THE SHRT-WV IS PROGGED TO BECOME A CLOSED VORT-MAX AS IT EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... AS A RESULT THE SFC THRU h5 CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO BE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED...

...EASTERN OK/AR/NORTHEAST TX/SE KS...

AS AFOREMENTIONED SHRT-WV BECOMES CLOSED ASSOCIATED KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS REGION 18Z/05... UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... STEEPENING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO AID IN 40-50KNT h85 LLJ... THIS WILL AID IN WAA ACROSS REGION... WITH LOWER 60Td's PROGGED AS FAR NORTH AS THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH MID 60's POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER... ETA/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF CLOSED LOW TRAVERSING REGION... GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED LLJ... MODEL PROGGES SUGGEST AN AXIS OF ENHANCED SFC THETA-E... THIS IN COMBINATION WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT ENHANCED DYNAMIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO ALLOW FOR MUCAPE 1500-2500j/kg...

BELIEVE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS KS... WITH HIGHLY DIFFLUENT LEFT EXIT REGION PROGGED ACROSS REGION... CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY VARY... HOWEVER MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND DERIVED HODOGRAPHS INDICATE STRONG CURVATURE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR... ATTM IT APPEARS REGION WILL REMAIN CONVECTION FREE THROUGH 21Z/04... THIS WILL AID IN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND MAY ALLOW FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED... IT APPEARS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE ACROSS REGION... THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SUGGEST LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE... IF MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED... A MDT RISK MAY BE NEEDED FOR PART OF THIS AREA...

...EASTERN/CENTRAL KS/MO/NE...

DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS REGION... ALONG WITH ORIENTATION OF CLOSED VORT WITH RESPECT TO WARM FRONT SUGGEST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR... HOWEVER... CROSS BOUNDARY FLOW IS PROGGED IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM FRONT...

MUCAPE 1000-2000j/kg ALONG WITH ENHANCED UVV'S WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7-8c/km ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... ORIENTATION OF WARM FRONT SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR LEWP STRUCTURES...

...MIDWEST...

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS REGION... LLJ IS PROGGED TO ALLOW FOR Td's IN THE MID 50's... STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...

...WARNER 04042005

NEXT UPDATE 04052005 0700z