VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z

THERE IS A 5% PROBABILITY OF ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID-ATLANTIC...OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS...THE HIGH PLAINS OF FAR WEST TX AND EASTERN NM... SEE MAP FOR DETAILS...

THERE IS A 10% PROBABILITY OF ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL... ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... SEE MAP FOR DETAILS...

MODEL PROGGES ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO A VIGOROUS LONG-WV TROF PROGGED TO BUILD SSE VIA CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THE D3 TIME FRAME...

0z/20 MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ETA/GFS/GGEM/UKMET ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION... THE ECMWF INDICATES A DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION... SUGGESTING THE TROF WILL EJECT EAST ACROSS CANADA... PRIMARY QUESTION IS CONTINUITY... HOWEVER IF RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS ESTABLISHED... CONTINUITY WILL NO LONGER BE OF QUESTION....

WITH AFOREMENTIONED MODEL CONSISTENCY... WILL UTILIZE THESE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS OUTLOOK... A SERIES OF SHRT-WV'S IS PROGGED TO EJECT SE FROM MEAN UPPER TROF... WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES...

MODEL PROGGES SUGGEST MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT... GFS/UKMET SUGGEST SW EXTENT OF FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... AN WILL LIKLEY BECOME A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT... FORECAST VWP'S SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS.. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES POSSIBLE... LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE... THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE REACCESSED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...

- WARNER 07/20/04