ONCE UPON a        TIME
                                                                                          ezine at l'atelier bonita
                                                     established since december 2002

Letters from Home : Hong Kong / Spring 2004                             by  Magdalena Woolf Right now, as we type, the greatest threat China poses, is, ironically, to itself, in the form of its behaviour towards the (recently recovered) province of Hong Kong. Despite the promises of both China and the former colonial ruler of HK (the UK), that "autonomy" would be preserved and that the "one country two systems" formula would guarantee the rights and freedoms of the 7 million people of HK, the population has been sold down the river and are currently suffering under the direct rule of the revolting and repressive Central authorities. Yup! HK is now directly controlled by Beijing and the screws are being tightened ever more quickly. Who gives a shit? Nobody of course! (Except for we HK peeps who are the ones directly affected - but what to do?) A part of the problem lies with the current US administration. In order to secure China's support in resolving the DPRK nuclear "crisis" (and, of course, to keep the trade flowing nicely), the US has been dabbling amateurishly, and dangerously, in the cross Straits relationship between China and Taiwan. Essentially, US policy has shifted away from support for Taiwan, towards containment of Taiwan. Given the rampant nationalism stoked up by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) (mainly to distract the populous from internal problems), the situation is explosive and China feels emboldened by the shift in US policy. China is desparate to play a part on the international stage and, given its emerging power and the US's need to harness that power for its own political purposes, is wringing every possible concession from the US over issues such as Taiwan. Unless the US changes tack here, and soon, I can see a situation where there could be a dramatic escalation of cross Strait tension in 2006, when Taiwan will hold a constitutional referendum, and especially 2008, when the referendum results will be implemented. The chances for a cross Straits war are increasing as time goes on and, in such an event, what will the US do? Not much! Sell a few more arms to Taiwan and then stand back wringing its hands and asking people to be sensible as the region erupts in conflagration. Hong Kong will likely suffer irreperable damage, even if it is not directly attacked by Taiwan (which is indeed a possiblility, even probablility, should hostilities break out). China and the US need each other, both economically and politically and the US is providing astonishing support to China in order to exert its quid pro quo. Unfortunately, as China basks in the limelight of emerging superpowerdom (errrr....how to say?), and enjoys flexing its new found muscles, secure in the knowledge that the US will, ultimately, defer on issues important to it (to what extent remains to be seen, but China certainly believes the US "owes it" and will "pay up" when the time comes), so Hong Kong, Xinjang Province, Taiwan, Korea, Tibet, Japan, India, and even the SE Asian nations become increasingly nervous. In many ways, it suits the US's agenda to stoke regional tensions in the Far East to some extent. It helps maintain US dominance and keeps the region in varying degrees of instability, preventing a united front developing to balance US power by creating a more "bi-polar" world, rather than the current lopsided theatre. Unfortunately (as in Iraq), it really does seem as if the US has little clue of the nature of the situation in East Asia and little sense of the danger that tinkering in the way it is creates (for others, rather than itself it must be reiterated). ©2004 Magdalena Woolf _______________ Magdalena Woolf, born and educated in London, is a journalist and long-time resident of Hong Kong.

                                                   ONCE UPON      a TIME
                                                                                          ezine at l'atelier bonita
                                                     established since december 2002