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WEATHER OUTLOOK

2009 - 2010

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Opinion by Birdmon

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South Central PA area

Liberty, Roundtop, Whitetail

How About A COLD Winter

What is Known

As of September 18, 2009

What is known: The Sun is a bit cooler than normal due to a prolonged solar minimum. Little if any sunspots so far this year. Cooler summer 09 was the norm for the east. EL Nino 3.4 in now predicted fall winter 09/10.

What is Forecast - Models up to 14 days have been pretty consistent. They hit the cool temps Sept 1-

Models - out to a month Show EC. 50/50

Models - Over 3 months Show EC 50/50 Temps, 50/50 Precip.

SAY it ain't so JOE;

AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi says snowy & Cold winter 09/10 ahead

Opinion Birdmon--

Another decent winter ahead. !! PA Cold and Snowy 90 to 110% of average snowfall 35 to 45 inches Colder than normal for most months. El Nino is located in area 3.4

Looks like a EL nino 3.4 aka West Based El Nino
the whole article link
West-based El Nino's have produced Colder Winter's such as 1977-1978 and 2002-2003.

NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation -

AO - Artic Oscillation -

EL Nino / LA Nina - Current predictions call for El Nino 3.4 Moderate Strength to last all winter.

Sun Spot Activity - solar minimum. Lower Sun Energy Output

Reference Normal temps >>

Nov 55H 36L Dec 45H 28L Jan 40H 23L

Data suggests conditions rating over the 9 data years

33% BEST

44% Better

22% Fair

SNOWMAKING -

All you want to know