Boiko Borissov’s

Reverse Reality

He is a future political leader, mayor, prime minister or president, but not a victim

STANIMIR VUGLENOV

Clearly, Boiko Borissov’s resignation submitted on Good Friday bears a strong symbolic meaning. He "dies" a martyr’s death only to rise again like a god.

Things, however, should not be reduced simply to the biblical implications: this exercise was designed on a grander scale. And it is preposterous to think that a pragmatic player of Borissov’s calibre will fit into an idealistic motto of the "burn to glow" type.

What is certain is that the General is getting ready to return stronger than ever. Which sounds really dangerous, given his stunning approval rating of almost 80 per cent.

Borissov’s move has probably been planned months before the unfortunate blast of Ivan "Doc" Todorov’s car, but the accident was conveniently used as a point of departure.

One of the first analogies that comes to mind in this case is Bogomil Bonev’s dismissal as interior minister by the then prime minister Ivan Kostov. The two events are outwardly similar, but the mistakes made in the earlier case were not repeated by Borissov. That is why he has a considerably

 

better chance of career success

in the future.

Before looking at the possible options for his future, let us analyse his latest actions as the Interior Ministry’s chief secretary. Borissov’s chosen tactics may prove the right key to decoding his future moves.

And the key is reverse reality. Therefore his actions should be viewed as the opposite of what they seem to be: he is about to do the opposite of what he apparently does. This is how things stand:

  1. Submitting the Interior Ministry’s report, he apparently demanded the resignations of other cabinet members. In reality, however, this is a way for him to hand in his own resignation in the most convenient and dignified way possible. We will explain why this is so further down.
    2.
  2. He resigned a senior position, but actually made a bid for an even more important position. It is not clear yet which one.
    3.
  3. He acted the martyr and the victim, but actually quit his position a winner. At least in moral terms.
    4.
  4. He submitted his resignation upon his return from Moscow. He seemed to be acting with Russia’s blessing. In reality, however, his future is linked with US support.

 

Why the Americans?

Because they have the strongest interest to see a powerful centre-right coalition pull the power rug from under the Socialist Party’s feet. First at the local and then at the general elections. Or at both, if early general elections are held at the same time as the local ones in the autumn.

Actually, this option is becoming increasingly likely. This is also one of the explanations why Boiko Borissov launched an offensive now rather than in the autumn or next year.

Why does the General need a reverse reality? Because it encodes his moves, making them difficult to understand and therefore unassailable by his enemies. He acts out the opposite of the Don Quixote scenario. The romantic hero collapses the moment he faces his mirror image, stricken by his bathos and insignificance.

On the contrary, Borissov foregrounds his mirror image of a martyr. Thus he lays himself open to possible attacks by his opponents, while his real actions take place in the background.

And Borissov’s enemies will certainly strike back, which is precisely one of the reasons why he stepped down just as his rating peaked. Had he stayed on for just one more week, the General’s

 

brilliant image

would have been eroded

 

by the discrediting material that would have inevitably followed.

No doubt, his enemies do have the means to attack him: Borissov has long been in business, and long enough in politics. With his resignation, however, he tied their hands: if they try to assail a martyr, they will lose even the paltry approval ratings they have left. No one likes people who sling mud at an icon.

Moreover, confusion reigns in his enemies’ camp. Finance and transport ministers Milen Velchev and Plamen Petrov and MP Miroslav Sevlievski, who allegedly partied on a yacht with Ivan "Doc" Todorov, stick to their defeatist attitude. They admitted they had been on the yacht and met someone named Ivo, but did not know he was a notorious smuggler.

From his hospital room, Ivan Todorov firmly denied having been there with them. Clearly, he wants to do them a favour with his loyalty, as is typical of big-time traffickers. In this case, however, this is more of a very disservice because he unwittingly makes out that the politicians are liars. Or implicates himself as a liar.

This confusion forms an exceedingly convenient background for Boiko Borissov to make his next moves.

 

B.B. as the opposite

of B.B.

Indeed, Bogomil Bonev’s and Boiko Borissov’s cases do have something in common, what with their high ratings and premature ousting from office.

Borissov, however, not only did not repeat Bonev’s mistakes, but he turned the tables on his opponents. Instead of being caught out on a yacht (with Michael Chorny, for instance), he himself implicated other people in going to a scandalous party in Monaco (on Spas Roussev’s yacht).

Instead of being fired with a scandal, he handed in his resignation. That is, he was in control to the last and was at least one move ahead of his opponents.

This gives grounds to believe that the trend will continue. And what are the prospects?

  1. Boiko Borissov: mayor. He would make a worthy rival of Stefan Sofiyanski for control of the capital. And is in fact the only person the beaming politician should really be afraid of. The fact is, there is no other possible candidate with a combination of charisma, a solid financial backing and structures.
    2.
  2. Boiko Borissov: prime minister of a caretaker government. If early elections were called, it would be logical to appoint the General to this position. The most suitable figure is usually someone with a high approval rating, linked with the Interior Ministry, because the main objective of a caretaker government is to maintain public order and prepare the country for early elections. At the same time this would give Borissov a chance to try his hand and prepare for a possible "real" premiership.
    3.
  3. Boiko Borissov: prime minister. This option is less likely, but is logical too. If a powerful centre-right coalition is set up, Borissov will be its logical leader. This would be an election alliance that would probably be formed by the new Global Bulgaria movement, whose coordinator Tsvetelina Borislavova is a friend of Borissov’s, Stefan Sofiyanski’s Free Democrats Union, part of the United Democratic Forces and part of the Simeon II National Movement (SNM).
    4.
  4. Boiko Borissov: President. This may become a fact in the future if the above three options fail, which is hardly likely. Though the presidential institution is notorious for its limited powers, it would be quite interesting to see what it would look like in the light of a personality like Borissov. The position of chief secretary of the Interior Ministry was not very popular before his time, either.

 

Could Simeon

really be behind

Borissov’s resignation?

Apparently, Prime Minister Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha has been playing his well-tried role of coordinator, the man who is above the things happening, who stands aloof from bickering, but holds tight the helm of state power.

There are, however, new details in the routine scenario. The SNM ship is obviously sinking, with just 10% of electoral confidence above the surface. Even Videnov’s and Kostov’s cabinets enjoyed greater support at similar points in their respective terms of office.

It is all too clear to Simeon that

he must look for a

lifeboat

He failed to deliver his promises, but he is not involved in major scandals like his predecessors, either. The bad things associated with his cabinet were attributed to other people in governance. Simeon’s image is clear, though rather frail.

It is hardly a surprise that all key figures in the SNM have distanced themselves from Borissov and only Saxe-Coburg-Gotha has commended his performance as being "more than excellent". All this after the General resigned with a bang, which ripped a new hole open in the hull of the already sinking SNM. This caused a new wave of panic on board. Some of the rats have already abandoned the ship, others are about to do so.

Like a real captain, Simeon will hold the helm to the last. Given his foretold sinking, he seems surprisingly calm.

This is hardly a coincidence. Actually, Borissov is already the captain, in all but name, of the lifeboat from which he may extend a helping hand to Simeon and part of the SNM in the future.

One thing is certain, however: Borissov is, and will be, the strong one. He will take only good swimmers aboard.