| The following will serve as a multi-purpose review of the upcoming 2002 NFL Football season. For those in CO.com it will justify the handicapping logic behind much of our early season selections, for those in fantasy football leagues it will preview who I think will be breakout teams and the athletes responsible, and for those tuning in on the Man says, they will be my NFL over/under predictions for the upcoming season. I’ll begin with the Executive Summary and then break out team-by-team, division-by-division. Rams Scorch the Earth I know this isn’t an outlandish prediction, and that being from St. Louis some may question my objectivity, but the Rams are the best team in the NFL by leaps and bounds and barring another team of destiny like New England, there’s no team in the NFL with the possible exception of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with the horses to hang with the Rams, and both of those teams have issues of their own, so a Super Bowl prediction will take the two favorites St. Louis and Pittsburgh. Very confident in the Rams, less so in the Steelers, and here’s why. Even though the Rams face much tougher runner-up candidates than Pittsburgh in Green Bay, Philadelphia and San Francisco, all of whom would be AFC favorites by the way, the AFC is a crap shoot conference this season and teams like Indianapolis, Cleveland, Tennessee and Kansas City lurk as the potential “sleeper” team that has come from nowhere to the Super Bowl in past seasons. In fact, only the Rams of 2001 and the Broncos of 1998 could be considered “chalk picks” to get to those Super Bowls, while Atlanta, St. Louis ’99, Tennessee, Baltimore, NY Giants and New England all came from .500 or worse the season before and had some hefty odds preseason. Trying to pick the needle in the haystack is a losing prop in my book, but if pressured to, I would lean towards a resurgence coming out of Indianapolis with a Ram-like transition on defense, and a return to greatness for Tennessee’s defense, led by my college roommate, Jim Schwartz, Tennessee’s defensive coordinator, who may be looking for work if they have a repeat of last year. In summary, my picks for the divisions and wild cards are as follows: NFC: (St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Philadelphia. WC’s Chicago and San Francisco) AFC: (Oakland, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Miami. WC’s Cleveland and Tennessee) 1st round: Green Bay over San Francisco, Chicago over Tampa Bay, and Miami over Cleveland, Tennessee over Oakland 2nd round: St. Louis over Chicago, Philadelphia over Green Bay, Pittsburgh over Tennessee, and Indianapolis over Miami Conference Finals: St. Louis over Philadelphia, Pittsburgh over Indianapolis Super Bowl: St. Louis over Pittsburgh. Keys in this assumption are Pittsburgh gaining home field advantage, which with an easy schedule (play soft NFC South and relatively soft on the bottom AFC South, plus they get Indy at home which should cement tiebreaker) should be easy if they can get past Cleveland again this year. Indy at home in the AFC title game would be tough, but picking them in Pittsburgh, in the elements, is too much. I could have gone the other way though if I thought Indy could get home field advantage. NFL Over/Unders Arizona Cardinals (6.5) I believe the Cards offense will be much improved, and though their division is much tougher, we’ll take over 6.5 for one unit. 115 pays 100. Atlanta Falcons (7.5) Absolutely no way. The World Sportsbook is offering +110 for under 7.5 so we’ll take that to the bank 550 pays 500. Baltimore Ravens (7.5) Another one that is absolutely no way. Have to give –140 odds, so we’ll go two units, 280 pays 200. Buffalo Bills (7) I think 7 is a very reasonable over/under. I had them at 6.5 expected, so we’ll shade under and take the odds and go one unit, 110 pays 100. Carolina Panthers (5.5) I have them at 6, but we don’t want to lay those odds. We’ll take under 5.5 for one unit 110 pays 100. Chicago Bears (8.5) Not much respect for da Monsters. I don’t think they’ll win 13 games again this year, but I think they can win 9. We’ll go over for two units and lay 260 to win 200. Cincinnati Bengals (7) I like the Bengals to go 8-8, but only if they can put Kitna down early in the season. Because I can’t know right now, we’ll go over 7 for 105 pays 100. Cleveland Browns (8.5) I have them at 9 or 10 wins, so I’ll take a small over bet at 115 to win 100. Dallas Cowboys (6.5) I don’t even like the Cowboys, but I do think they’ll win 7 maybe 8 games. Odds beg us to go under, but we’ll lay 150 on the over to win 100. Denver Broncos (9.5) This one begs for an under bet. Denver has a very difficult schedule. Will be a standout season to go 10-6 on that one. We’ll take under 9.5 for 240 pays 200. Detroit Lions ( 6) They’ll give us odds to take the over, but it’ll take a miracle for the Lions to win 7 games, no matter WHO is their QB. We’ll go under 6 for 560 pays 400. Green Bay Packers (10.5) They are the class of the Central, err, North this year, so we’ll take a small over for 115 pays 100. Houston Texans (4.5) Everybody thinks this will be a playoff team. I don’t see it. We’ll take under 4.5 for 260 pays 200. Indianapolis Colts (9.5) The over begs to be taken here and I think Indy’s defense will be in the top half statistically, a major improvement over last year’s awful defense. Over 9.5 for 390 pays 300. Jacksonville Jaguars (7) I have them right at 7. Over 7 pays even money, so we’ll take that if we have to take something. 100 pays 100. Kansas City Chiefs (7.5) Nobody believes in the Chiefs. I like what Johnnie Morton will do for Trent Green. We’ll take over 7.5 and the odds, 300 pays 390. Miami Dolphins (9.5) How can you like anyone else in the East? Ten wins is a lot though with a hard schedule. We’ll take a small over for 115 pays 100. Minnesota Vikings (8) I don’t like anything about this defense, but I forecast them right on 8 wins, so we’ll take the best odds, which is over 8 for 100 pays 100. New England Patriots (8.5) Boy, how’s 8.5 for an over/under for a defending Super Bowl Champ? I have the Patsies for 8.5 on the button, but the odds are outstanding on the under, so we’ll go under 8.5 for 100 pays 140. New Orleans Saints (7) The first game, at Tampa Bay could set a tone for what should be a dandy rivalry over the years. Funny thing is, I think that game will be a shootout. We’ll take over 7 wins for 210 pays 200. New York Giants (7.5) Surprising number, but I had them at 7.2 wins, so I’ll take the small under wager for 130 pays 100. New York Jets (8.5) Again, I had them right at 8.5 expected, so we’ll take the best odds, which is over 8.5 for 100 pays 100. Oakland Raiders (9.5) To my surprise, my calculations have the Raiders at 9.0 wins, so I’ll take a small under for 110 pays 100. Philadelphia Eagles (10) Love the Eagles, Love everything about them except Duce Staley as feature back and Levon Kirkland at MLB trying to cover Marshall Faulk. I will take a small over for 130 pays 100. Pittsburgh Steelers (10.5) For whatever reason, I am still not that high on Kordell, so I’ll be going under for even money, 200 pays 200. Not too far under, but 8, 9 or 10 wins. San Diego Chargers (7) Lots of respect for Marty Schottenheimer after a 5-11 season, and rightfully so, but I have them for 5.5 wins and I have to trust my number. I’ll take under 7 for 200 pays 220. San Francisco 49ers (10) So much can go wrong that went right for San Fran last year. But much more difficult schedule is main reason, I’ll take the odds and go under 10 for 200 pays 220. Seattle Seahawks (8.5) I see an 8-8 record for them, including 2-4 in division. That’s why I’m the Clairvoyant One. I’ll take under 8.5 for 100 pays 100. St. Louis Rams (11.5) Even I had the Rams for an “expected” number of 11.4. First game in Denver is a key to running roughshod or getting into a race this season. I’ll take best odds, which are over 11.5 for 100 pays 100. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9.5) I think 9.5 wins would win this division. I also think 9 will do it. I may be crazy, but I’m taking under 9.5 wins and the odds for 200 pays 320. Tennessee Titans (8.5) I really like the Titans to win 9 or more games and make the playoffs this year with a healthy Eddie George. We’ll lay the odds and go over 8.5 for 160 pays 100. Washington Redskins (8.5) No way in hell Washington wins 9 games this year. No way in hell. I’ll take under 8.5 for 650 pays 500. Division-by-Division Breakdowns NFC West: I start in the best division in the newly realigned NFL. Seattle would be getting consideration as a preseason favorite in the old AFC West, but they simply are outgunned by San Francisco and St. Louis in this division. Arizona should be a better team than last year’s 7-9 version, but their record will be worse with a much more difficult schedule now that they’re out of the NFC Least. I see the division getting much tougher for St. Louis and San Fran though. New Orleans is on the downtick, Carolina and Atlanta still struggle and I think both StL and SF could have counted on six wins from last year’s schedule, whereas I think going 5-1 will be a victory for St. Louis against this slate, and 4-2 is a possibility. SF can be happy with 4-2, even 3-3 and do their damage out of division. Like I said, Arizona could be a better team, yet still go 0-6 in division against Seattle, ST. Louis and San Francisco. Projected records: St. Louis 13-3 San Francisco 10-6 Seattle 9-7 Arizona 7-9 St. Louis faces Philly, Chicago (avoid Green Bay), old nemesis Tampa and the AFC West out of conference, including a late season three game road trip in cold weather locations Washington, Philadelphia and Kansas City in November/December. Washington and KC might be good, might not, but playing the 4 ET game in those stadiums will be a challenge and three game road trips are always a gambler’s paradise – against the Rams. Fantasy-wise the Rams are a gold mine. The usuals Warner and Faulk, Holt slightly higher than Bruce, though I still contend Bruce is better (as is evidenced by the consistent draw of the other team’s shut down corner or double coverage). Proehl should have a larger year than last with the absence of Hakim, and the gradual integration of Terrence Wilkins into that role. Losing Hakim makes this team better, not worse. Big returns are great, but fumbling is the only thing that kills the Rams. Whether they score on the punt return or the drive that will follow, they will score and fumbling the punt just killed them the last two years. Az will not be missed. Eric Crouch will be no factor beyond occasional trick play fodder and Martz curiosity. His time comes next year when Proehl retires, Wilkins becomes #3 receiver and Crouch #4. San Francisco won many, many games last year by 6 points or less. Were 3-1 in OT, and in general could have been worse than their 12-4 record. Also, I point to their Week 16 loss in Dallas which blew any shot they had at a division title and cost them home field in the Wild Card round v Green Bay as evidence that they still lack the big game appetite that I see in Green Bay. To me, they are Seattle with a better QB, better WR and worse running game. Defenses are comparable and I think SF slips a game or two or three due to a tougher schedule in division (they were 6-0 against departed NO, Car, and ATL), a bounce here or there and the soon-to-be deafening speculation about Mariucci’s lack of extension. I think 10-6 is max for SF and 9-7 and missing the playoffs is possible if Seattle has some success there. Which brings us to Seattle the “x” factor in this division. Could be anywhere from 6-10 to 10-6 in my book. They just might be better than San Fran and if their passing game improves they will be. Shaun Alexander is a #2 RB in many fantasy drafts behind Marshall and running against St. Louis, SF and Arizona won’t hurt him one bit. They are pass defense oriented first, run second, with the exception of Arizona who doesn’t seem to be oriented towards either. As long as Dilfer stays at QB, they should be competitive. With Hasselbeck they are a 6-10 team with no chance of competing in this offense-oriented division. Love Koren Robinson’s chances of getting 1000 yards receiving and 8 TD’s this season. Darrell Jackson is a top 20 WR in the NFL. Not high on TE Jerramy Stevens this season. TE is key to Seattle’s attack and I believe Dilfer will be more comfortable with Itula Mili making both of the TE’s not worth taking in most leagues where people only have one TE, and only 12-15 are taken at any one time. Arizona. Their offense should be terrific, David Boston is a breakout player this year, though the secondaries in the division are designed to stop high profile receivers, Boston is Terrell Owens caliber. I also believe Plummer should have his best season to date and scramblers give the Rams problems I know. They should also be trailing, sometimes by 20 or more, so stat padding should help Plummer and Boston’s owners. At RB, I’m not so confident in Thomas Jones. It is rare the back that struggles for years (non-injury related struggles especially) and then turns it on later. RB’s are usually good right out of the gate or not, and Jones has not been good. I think Arizona will be on the short end of a lot of 41-24 games this year, and I’d avoid their defense like the plague, and over bets a-plenty on Cardinal games. NFC South: I think by far the worst division in football. Will yield the worst champion, will most likely have three teams under .500 and 9-7 should take the title, and might. Tampa Bay is the cream of this division, mostly because New Orleans has been decimated by their front office SNAFU, and because Carolina and Atlanta are horrible. The only part of Tampa Bay’s game that I see to be improved this season is their pass offense. Keyshawn should get in the end zone more than once, I have him as #11 receiver, which is pretty consistent with national averages, with the exception of having him ahead of Tim Brown. Having Keenan McCardell opposite him and Jon Gruden calling the plays should help him tremendously. I also think that Rob Johnson will become QB there. They open at home in a critical season-tone setting game with New Orleans. Absolute must-win. Then they go to Baltimore in a winnable game, host the Rams on MNF, then go to Cincy and Atlanta. So 4-1 is a possibility for Tampa to start and that would keep Brad Johnson’s job, if he has it coming out of camp. I think whoever is Tampa’s QB coming out of camp will be better than average, fantasy-wise. Their defense will only slip. Atlanta will score some points, and New Orleans will be a pinball machine this season with that gambling defense without any of the D-Line elements that made it so tough. Playing the AFC North is a bonus for their defense as is lining up against the offensively challenged NFC North this year. Tampa Bay draws a first place schedule though, which gets them St. Louis and Philly instead of Washington and San Francisco. That could vault New Orleans into contention, but I don’t think so. I see it like this in the end. Tampa Bay 9-7 New Orleans 8-8 Atlanta 6-10 Carolina 6-10 New Orleans should be a great team for fantasy owners, as I think Aaron Brooks, Joe Horn and Deuce McAlister should all be fantasy winners. I also put Eddie “Boo” Williams among the “best of the rest” fantasy TE’s 15-20, I have him 17th. Good receiving TE. Saints will miss Willie Jackson though, and they really haven’t replaced him. Albert Connell’s signing was a huge mistake as I said it was at the time. McAlister, if he can stay healthy will excel on the turf, and should have some huge games with long 40+ yard TD’s. I have him 13th among backs, the last before I see a severe drop in class to Fred Taylor. I don’t see New Orleans doing much better than .500 though they should be fun to watch. I think their defense will be disappointing from a fantasy standpoint compared to recent editions. They start @ TB, Green Bay at home, @ Chicago, @ Detroit and Pittsburgh at home, so we’ll know soon enough where they are. Says here they are no better than 2-3. 1-4 possibly. Atlanta and Carolina should battle for last around 5-11 each. Michael Vick will put up great fantasy numbers, especially if rushing yards count, but his INT’s will be high. I expect 20 TD’s and 20 INT’s this year. In leagues where they penalize fumbles lost, he’ll kill you too. He’ll have T. J. Duckett to hand the ball to and Warrick Dunn to screen pass to, but other than that, the cupboard is bare. Brian Finneran at WR? No Terance Mathis this year or Tim Dwight, and that means busted routs and INT’s for TD’s against the old Falcs and Michael Vick. Their non-descript defense won’t help matters either. The only good news is that they play Carolina twice and that SF and St. Louis are off the schedule. In Carolina, only Muhsin Muhammad makes me horny. Weinke is dismal, Walls is old and WAYYY overrated, Jeffers and Donald Hayes will disappoint fantasy owners once again and their defense is still one year away. But I expect with their young D secondary, Peppers and Dan Morgan for Carolina to be the up and coming team in this division in 2003 and beyond. NFC North: I think this is the 2nd most competitive division in the NFC, but the Packers should win this division by at least two games, ahead of a challenged Chicago squad and a Minnesota squad still in search of a running game, a defense and a shred of character. Chicago will challenge for a wild card with Seattle and San Francisco and possibly New Orleans, but that’s about it. I see it like this: Green Bay 10-6 Chicago 9-7 Minnesota 7-9 Detroit 4-12 Green Bay, will be the class of this division, simply because of Bret Favre and Ahman Green and an improving defense. I don’t buy into the Terry Glenn hype – in fact, I think he’ll be one of the bigger busts in the NFL this season. But as long as Favre stays healthy, this team sleep walks to 10-6 or 11-5 this year and a #3 seed in the NFC playoffs. Gets them out of St. Louis’ bracket at least. They open with Atlanta at home, at New Orleans, at Detroit and Carolina at home. The only potential stumble there is at new Orleans as they don’t play well in domes but a 4-0 start is a possibility. Don’t let it fool you though. Their second place finish last year to Chicago does mean that they get San Fran and Washington instead of Philly and St. Louis, so that’s a huge bonus over Chicago in the only two opponents that differ. Chicago plays 16 road games this year, with their “home” games in Champaign. I DO like the acquisition of Chris Chandler and I DO like their team a lot, but a ton of breaks went Chicago’s way last year, the schedule gets a lot tougher and they do have to drive 2.5 hours to every “home” game this year. I think 10 wins is their max and 8-8 their floor. A good running game, mistake free football and solid defense will make them a solid team though, and although Vegas will probably catch on to them last year, CO.com made a ton off the Chicago Bears. Stay away from Marcus Robinson and I’d hesitate to put Anthony Thomas any higher than 8th. I DO have him higher than Curtis Martin and LaDainian Tomlinson. AT won’t have as many 4th quarter leads to melt the clock away with this year and his numbers should dip a tad. Also with a good play action QB like Chandler, the goal line passing TD should return to the Bears playbook this season. Minnesota. Hmmmm, anywhere between 5-11 and 11-5. Big ifs in Randy Moss being their captain, but if everything you read is true he could score 20TD’s as a WR this year. I certainly make him the first WR taken and consider him in the 6-10 slot of any draft. He’ll get his numbers this year and Carter isn’t around anymore to vulture short yardage TD’s anymore. Michael Bennett should be a little better this year, but I still consider a lack of a running game to be this offense’s Achilles heel and will keep it from the playoffs. The defense will be anywhere from awful to average and I like the former. They had a Rams-esque makeover without the talented players or new scheme that the Rams did. They can’t get any worse though. I do like Doug Brien as a FG kicker this year. Without a running game, that means stalled drives in the red zone, and lots of FG’s. He should be dynamite. They open at Chicago (a break for a Chicago road game), Buffalo at home, Carolina at home, and at Seattle before a bye week. That should be anywhere from 4-0 to 1-3. See what I mean? Detroit. Absolutely awful and a joke. They pay Hakim and Bill Schroeder starter money when neither has ever faced a double team, and is nothing more than a 3rd receiver in the NFL. Avoid both. Germane Crowell off the DL is this team’s only hope at WR. James Stewart will suck once again before getting hurt in game 5-8 this year, and the bench offers no hope. The QB situation will be a mess with the vultures circling over Mike McMahon from day one, and Joey Harrington having a typically dismal rookie season for a QB. Avoid this whole team. The defense may be competitive. I like a lot of what they’ve done on that side of the ball, maybe Matt Millen should confine his personnel decisions to defense only. I think Detroit maxes out at 5 wins if EVERYTHING goes right and more likely 2-3 wins await them this year with that clusterf*ck at QB. They open at Miami, at Carolina, then Green Bay and New Orleans at home. They better beat Carolina or 0-4 at their bye week will make for some interesting press for Mornhinweg. NFC Least: Ack! Philly and the pretenders. The only thing good that happened to this division is Arizona leaving it, and even that took winnable games off Dallas, New York and Washington schedules that desperately need to show something this year. I like Philly to win 10-12 games and get the bye that comes with the #2 seed this next season. I like one of the other three to go .500, possibly 9-7 with a break or two and contend, but just fall short, of the wild card. I think that team is Dallas. The other two teams will go 5-7 wins and face much soul searching in the coming offseason. I see it ending like this: Philadelphia 11-5 Dallas 7-9 Washington 6-10 NY Giants 5-11 Philadelphia: Opens @ Tennessee, @ Washington and Dallas at home so we’ll know plenty about the NFL just by watching Philly in September this year. Tennessee will be tough at home and have much to prove. Washington and Spurrier will treat that as their Super Bowl game and Dallas is always tough and could come to town 2-0, opening with Houston and home v TN. Ouch. The schedule gets even tougher for Philly with games v SF, StL, Indy, TN and Chicago this season. But they get Washington and St. Louis at home in December on that awful turf and Indy at home in November so the schedule DOES cut them a few breaks. McNabb will be giant this year, and I like Freddie Mitchell to emerge as his go to receiver. I like Chad Lewis to get 10TD’s at TE as Duce Staley stalls in the red zone, and I think Duce Staley will be a non-factor fantasy-wise, ranking him 23rd among RB’s. They also have no suitable replacement without Buckhalter there so an injury to Staley means defenses will give McNabb and his running game zero respect. Favoring teams later in the schedule who will catch them once Staley receives his annual season ending injury. Dallas: Their defense is awesome, all-pros everywhere on it. Roy Williams will be special at safety right off the bat, and LaRoi Glover will wreak havoc on the defensive line. Love their D, can’t say it often enough. Offense isn’t great, but as opposed to Washington who has no skill players worth mentioning, Dallas at least has Emmitt Smith and Hambrick, and Galloway and Ismail at the skills to complement THEIR below average QB. The wild card here is Chad Hutchinson, but I just find it hard to believe that the guy comes out of four years in the Cardinals minor league system and is a top flight NFL QB. I still like drafting their wideouts and Emmitt though. Emmitt I have 21st, and Galloway/Ismail I have 29/30, higher than most. Like I said Dallas could start 2-0 opening in Houston and with TN at home before they go to Philly in Week 3. Party’s over then as they go to St. Louis before they host Carolina and the Giants, but a 4-2 start for Dallas could have them thinking wild card after week 6. Washington: Maybe I’m the only one who thinks that a team with Steve Spurrier popping off every week, Shane Mathews, at best at QB, a patchwork line, absolutely no one at WR, and Stephen Davis facing eight man fronts all season long will have trouble scoring 14 points a game. Add to that a defense that depends WAYYY too much on aging defensive linemen across the board (Bruce Smith, Renaldo Wynn, Santana Dotson, Daryl Gardener and Dan Wilkinson form the nucleus of a 7 man rotation that averages 32 years of age and numerous knee surgeries. Have a shit line and I don’t care if your LB corps is Butkus, LT and Jack Ham, you’re going to get ran all over. Also your pass rush will suffer and that means blitzing and that means single coverage, negating some of the effectiveness of Champ Bailey and Fred Smoot. I just think they’ll struggle mightily to finish .500, and 5-11 isn’t out of the question. They open at home with Arizona, then Philly at home, @ San Fran and @Tn after a week 4 bye. If they don’t beat Arizona who’s a huge question mark, in Week One, they may not win until October and that’s not how Steve Superior wants to start. He’ll be scratching his head with that visor in no time flat. I think Stephen Davis will be taken way too early, and I think the Redskin defense will also be taken too early. They’ll have artificially low passing defense stats as teams will run all over them. No ints, no sacks, few fumble recoveries makes for boring games, and other than low overall yardage allowed for their defense, I don’t see a single Redskin worth taking. NY Giants: As bad as the Redskins will be, the Giants will be worse. Their defense is a shadow of its former self, Strahan is a time bomb waiting to go off, Kerry Collins lost Jurevicius who I thought was very underrated and unless Shockey proves to be a gemmer right off the bat, I don’t like any of their offensive players much either. Dayne should suck once again, and the one guy with upside is once again Tiki Barber, and only reduced carries for Dayne can make Tiki worth having from a fantasy perspective. Their D had serious losses and gets older across the board. They open with a brutal 1-2-3 of San Fran, St. Louis and Seattle before Arizona comes to town in Week 4 with them still seeking their first win. I think they could win as few as 3 games and as many as 7, but they’ll blow this year, don’t get me wrong. AFC West: Everyone is so high on this division, but I believe it is relatively weak and will get its clock cleaned by the NFC West in the 16 games between them to the tune of 5-11 or 6-10. They’ll also struggle v the AFC East to the tune of 7-9 or 6-10. This means that 10-6 wins this division definitely and maybe 9-7 does. Oakland is the only team that can pull off 10 wins, as their defense is the best in the conference. I wouldn’t put it past Marty Schottenheimer to surprise in this soft division with a solid defense and featuring La Dainian Tomlinson. He should start Flutie early and phase Brees in as Flutie fades once the leaves change colors in late October. I see it like this: Oakland 9-7 Denver 7-9 Kansas City 7-9 San Diego 7-9 Oakland: I think they definitely struggle without Gruden, with an aging offense with Gannon, Brown and Rice all over 35, and with a schedule out of division that is brutal. Thank goodness they’re in this joke of a division or they’d miss the playoffs in Rice’s swan song. I do like their offensive players though, despite the injury risk. Charlie Garner figures to suffer as Callahan will want to play Wheatley a tad more. Wheatley might be a sleeper pick from this team. Defense will be solid but they play offensive teams in division and in the NFC West that will inflate their stats. Their first six weeks are brutal. Home v Seattle, @ Pittsburgh, bye, home v Cleveland, @ Buffalo and @ St. Louis. Then they get into their division, but they could be 2-4, maybe 1-5 at that point. Certainly going 3-3 to start the season would be a huge win for Oakland and their expectations should ratchet down a bit. Denver: Well, this is the season that Brian Griese finally drives over the cliff. The great experiment will be over and the Broncos will eat that salary cap disaster of a contract they gave him last year. This defense is soft against the run but counters that by being soft against the pass. The Dale Carter signing has already blown up in their face and their games should be shootouts playing away from their strength that is the running game. Problem, fantasy-wise with this team is too many running backs, which makes all of them a risk. TD, Olandis, Mike Anderson and even Clinton Portis may emerge as THE guy, but it’s doubtful. Eddie McCaffery is sure to lose a step, making way for Ashley Lelie, but first WR’s are always dicey. As usual, it will be the Rod Smith show in these shootouts. Take him top 5 in WR’s and you won’t be disappointed again. They open St. Louis at home, @ SF, Buffalo at home. Better win that Buffalo game before you get a breather road tilt in Baltimore in Week 4. Kansas City: I like this offense a lot, and hate the defense. Which makes this team a fantasy darling. I think Trent Green will have a big statistical career as he proved last year that he is the king of junk time stats. His int’s have to drop and will as his WR’s are much more experienced this season. Johnnie Morton will be a stud and should be in your 20-30 range among WR’s. Sly Morris and Snoop Minnis are good reaches because SOMEONE has to catch all the passes. Despite his holdout, I think Tony Gonzalez has a monster year to make up for last year. 10 TD’s minimum. The only one to slip back from last year should be Priest Holmes, but he is still a 6-10 fantasy back, just don’t expect 1800 yards again. KC starts @ Cleveland, then Jax at home, @New England and Miami at home so the schedule didn’t do them any favors. San Diego: Other than the defense and LaDainian Tomlinson, Marty Schottenheimer should kill this team’s fantasy value. Stay away from Steven Alexander and Tim Dwight like the plague. They are Caucasian versions of Az-Hakim in SD this season. Marty is a winner though and this team and this division is tailor made for his success. If the Raiders incur injuries this season, I won’t be surprised in the least to see San Diego make a run at 9-7 and the division title. They start @ Cincy, Houston at home and @ Arizona so a fast start isn’t out of the question. AFC South: This new division should produce the two most improved teams in football and the CO’s picks for “Nowhere to the Super Bowl” runs this season. Tennessee and Indianapolis. They play the soft NFC East and AFC South, in addition to drawing Houston twice so the schedules are favorable. While Oakland may win the West at 9-7, it’ll take 11 wins to win this division. I like what Tony Dungy will be able to accomplish in Indy with that defense and think Peyton Manning is outstanding so I’ll take Indy in a tight one. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if they can get home field advantage throughout if they can get to the Super Bowl. I see it like this: Indianapolis 11-5 Tennessee 10-6 Jacksonville 7-9 Houston 2-14 Indianapolis: The defense should be much better, 12-18th in total yards allowed is my guess and that offense will win games by itself with just a little help. Love Manning in the 10-15 pick range, Harrison is my #2 receiver behind Moss, but I think Edgerrin is due for a downer year, coming off surgery and all, so keep Dominic Rhodes handy on draft day around the 6th or 7th round, you won’t be disappointed. They start @ Jax, Miami at home, @ Houston, bye, Cincy at home, and Baltimore at home, so I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see them 5-0 or 4-1 minimum going into their MNF showdown in Week 6 at Pittsburgh that will be huge for home field advantage come playoff time. Tennessee: Titan defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz was a college roommate of mine, so I have complete confidence in the turnaround of that defense which was so injury-ravaged a year ago. If not, Jim will be sending his resume around looking for a job come January, but then again, so have I the last two Januaries. Eddie George is running strong and his injury was another reason they struggled last year. They also picked up a quality blocking back for him in Greg Comella so I love Eddie George as your 6-8th RB taken in fantasy. And I like Tennessee to bounce back with a soft schedule. The beginning will be a test though as they start at home v Philly, then @ Dallas, Clev at home, @ Oakland and Washington at home. To start 3-2 against that would ensure a double digit W season. Jacksonville: I have been fooled by Jacksonville for the last season. Brunell is getting old and frankly has never impressed as much as the hype. Is Fred Taylor hurt yet? Someone else will make a mistake on him on draft day, not me. Jimmy Smith will be triple teamed now with the loss of Keenan McCardell so his value drops below Torry Holt’s and David Boston’s in my rankings. I just don’t see how they become a good team all of a sudden. They start with Indy at home, @ KC, bye, Jets at home, Philly at home, @ Tennessee, then finally get a winnable game at Baltimore, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them 0-5 or 1-4 five weeks into the season. Ack. Houston: Expansion team. No one worth drafting much less starting. They don’t get the good fortune of having Atlanta, Carolina or Detroit on the schedule, so winning any game will be tough. Just ignore them this year, bet against them at home with every chance you get, and chalk them up for two upset wins and 2-14. Next! AFC North: Should be MUCH better than people think as I expect bigger things from Cincinnati, big things from Cleveland and expect Pittsburgh to still be a quality team, not 13-3 quality, but quality. Baltimore will get pummeled this season and next and who won’t enjoy watching that? I see it like this: Pittsburgh 11-5 Cleveland 9-7 Cincinnati 8-8 Baltimore 6-10 Pittsburgh’s schedule is pretty difficult this year, starting with a tough draw on opening MNF at New England. That’s what happens when you surprise everyone. Bettis is getting longer in the tooth, but I think Pittsburgh’s passing offense should improve this year with Plaxico Burress being my sleeper on this team. Kordell Stewart would be an excellent fantasy backup QB, and not bad if you are the last guy picking your starting QB on draft day. Their defense will carry the day and I expect Todd Peterson on Pittsburgh to be the best kicking Todd Peterson we’ve seen to date. Cleveland may just win this division if Tim Couch and the passing game can improve and William Green can be the man there. I love Green on draft day between 15-20 on RB’s. The Brown receivers, pun intended, don’t impress me much either, so it’s Couch, Green and the Defense fantasy-wise. If they can get by Pittsburgh, their schedule is easier than Pittsburgh’s is, drawing the Jets and Kansas City v New England and Oakland on Pitt’s schedule. They also turn the expansion tables with a gimme W in Houston and should get their revenge on Art Modell’s Ravens before he kicks the bucket. If Cincinnati would just start Gus Frerotte I’d bump them to 9-7 and WC consideration with that defense and Corey Dillon, but I can’t because they’ll start with Kitna and replace him after five weeks and a 1-4 or 2-3 record. Yes, their defense will be top ten this year, and I love Takeo Spikes and Justin Smith for sacks and turnovers. Real sleeper defense. Schedule is soft with Carolina and Atlanta and Baltimore twice and Houston and San Diego, they could make the playoffs, but again it comes down to QB with Cincy. Baltimore: Brian Billick’s genius label will get throw into the shitter with this season. Chris Redman at QB? Jamal Lewis coming off surgery? Hell, Jermaine Lewis and his 3 kick return TD’s are also gone. This team will be so bad it will be laughable and I was seriously tempted to put them at 4-12 if their schedule wasn’t so easy relatively. They start at Carolina, host TB, bye, host Denver, @ Cleveland, @ Indianapolis. They better beat Carolina, because the rest of those teams will be looking for blood after all the smack Baltimore talked over the years. Enjoy your Super Bowl rings Ravens, you’ll be hoping the rings can make you invisible by October this season. AFC East: Not just because they beat my Rams, but I think New England is in for a rude awakening this season and will be on the cusp of making the playoffs or not at 8-8 or 9-7. The division gets much tougher as Miami improves to Super Bowl caliber with Ricky Williams, Buffalo gets off the mat with Drew Bledsoe and some other moves to strengthen their D and the Jets will be solid as long as Vinny doesn’t try and win games by himself. I see it like this: Miami 11-5 NY Jets 9-7 New England 8-8 Buffalo 7-9 Miami can go all the way this year. I like Chris Chambers a lot. They won’t get embarrassed by the Rams again as they don’t play them, so their corners should stand up all season. Ricky Williams will be huge. I think he is the #2 RB in the draft, though most services have Ahman Green and Shaun Alexander higher. I can see Green, but Alexander is unproven in my book. Jay Fiedler is the only thing keeping this team from really being outstanding, but I think they’re outstanding enough to win this division going away. Week 5 game in Miami with New England could be dagger in NE’s back at that point in the season. Could be the game that sets Miami up as a Super Bowl contender. Like Miami, that’s a theme. NY Jets: Tough team, but Herman Edwards and Vinny Testaverde scare me too much to pick them to do anything other than lose a WC game. Curtis Martin should be a horse again, but their receiving corps will struggle against the tough secondaries in this division. Defense is mediocre at best. I like them to scrape and battle to 9-7 but one game either way won’t surprise me at all. New England: It’s not sour grapes really. They have no backup QB now, some would argue they have no QB. Is Antowain Smith really that good? Daniel Graham should be good at TE, but Troy Brown will see a lot more double coverage this year and the special teams magic that made that defense such a fantasy darling next year is a fleeting thing from year to year. Their schedule is MUCH harder this year than last, and I think 8-8 plus or minus a game is a gimme for this team. Buffalo: Bledsoe should be outstanding, and should raise Moulds’ value considerably now that someone can throw him a deep ball. I like Moulds right after Rod Smith at #7-9 in WR rankings. Travis Henry will also benefit from a more wide open and higher scoring offense so he jumps a little too. Their defense will be run on a lot within this division which cuts down on sacks and turnovers, but I think that Buffalo which starts with the Jets, Minnesota, Denver, Chicago and Oakland before they get well on Houston can have a nice season if they survive that murderous start at 2-3 or better. That ought to do it. St. Louis vs. either Pittsburgh or Indianapolis in the Super Bowl. Bank on it. |
| The Clairvoyant One's Preseason Primer |