| Pretenders, Contenders and Dark Horses July 17, 2002 by Reed Lonteen It's that time of year again. With camps opening on Friday, summer just heating up and September just around the corner ... it's time for the 3rd Annual "Pretenders, Contenders, and Dark Horses" by your truly. Since I already sent out the recap, I won't bore you with the details of last year, but this season, I am expecting one of the "contenders" to run away with it. Does that mean I won't make my $20 fun bet on my 4 dark horses? No, of course not. The way I figure it, I'm about $1800+ ahead so why change now? So without further ado, let's talk some NFL projections: From Pirates to Prospectors: The 2002 contenders 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers The offseason started abysmally for the Bucs as the Glazers fired Tony Dungy then desperately searched for a replacement. When the "Tuna" backed out, all hell broke loose and suddenly Tampa looked like the Tampa of old. Then a deal was struck that sent money and picks to Oakland and "Chucky" to the Bucs. Tampa Bay made some key offseason moves bolstering the offense while not giving up too much on the defensive side. The bottom line is with Gruden, the offense should no longer paddle in circles and utilize the Johnson twins and newly acquired Michael Pittman. Even better news for the Bucs is that New Orleans is on the decline, Carolina is a year away from even being mediocre and Atlanta is the only upstart they will have deal with. It should be a good year despite the early bumblings of the Glazers. 3. Denver Broncos OK, before the first e-mail hits ... YES, they were my number 1 contender last season. The problem was not the team but the injuries they sustained - namely the loss of Ed McCaffrey. After a rash of injuries on both sides of the ball, Denver should return to form this season and win the newly aligned AFC West. Look for Griese to get it done through the air and a bevy of running backs to carry the load. McCaffrey and Smith will be back at full strength and Denver bolstered their receiving corp depth with the signings of Rob Moore and rookie Ashly Lelie. Add to that the return of veteran Shannon Sharpe and the high-powered Denver offense should start clicking again. The defense lost Pro Bowl caliber distraction Bill Romanowski and will see if special teams standout and 3rd year veteran Ian Gold can replace him. My money's on the defense to continue to improve while the offense reverts to form. 2. Pittsburgh Steelers Talk about a turnaround year. Kordell Stewart turned in a Pro Bowl season; Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress stepped up; Amos Zeroue complimented Bettis well and - in his stead - carried the offensive load; Kendrell Bell exploded onto the scene ... Just about everything that could go right did for Pittsburgh until the playoffs. Either way, it was a great run and one that can be reproduced this season. This team is still growing and they even managed to improve the line backing corp with the signing of James Farrior from the Jets to replace the departed Earl Holmes. All in all, the Steelers are in very good position for another run deep into the playoffs. 1. San Francisco 49ers This is a team that is ready for greatness if they could just teach their biggest offensive weapon Terrell Owens what it means to have class and be a team player. San Francisco has climbed out of the doldrums and is once again a force in the NFC West. Jeff Garcia is a tough QB with a decent arm and uncanny accuracy; his young receiving corp is improving and he has the luxury of two running backs that can carry the load in Charlie Garner and Kevan Barlow. On top of all this, the 49er defense has been improving by leaps and bounds and should be one of the league's top rated units this season. A high-powered offense, a stifling defense, and a coach who utilizes his talent should translate into a succesful 2002 campaign and a possible shot at the Lombardi trophy. I coulda been somebody ... Pretenders of the 2002 NFL Season 3. Indianapolis Colts The Colts began last season with distractions in the Edgerin James, Peyton Manning antagonism and things just got worse. When all was said and done, Jim Mora was scape-goated out of Indy and Tony Dungy (after being fired by Tampa) was on his way to attempt to re-tool one of the league's worst defenses. The Colts added Quadry Ismail into the offensive mix which should help Peyton Manning, but the Colts - for the second straight season - failed to address the glaring needs on defense. The Triplets will sell the tickets, but defense wins championships. Tony Dungy knows his defense, but with mediocre (at best) talent the Colts will not be able to make a big jump this season. 2.Oakland Raiders Regardless if you love or hate Oakland, there are some very glaring problems with this team. First, age. With the passing game in the hands of Rich Gannon (36), Tim Brown (35) and Jerry Rice (39) can we really expect this to be a team on the rise? I believe last season was their best chance at a Super Bowl winner. Also keep in mind that this team is one big hit away from being Bobby Hoying's team (or worse yet Marques Tuiasosopo's ... or still worse Rick Mirer's team). The second problem is how will these guys respond to Bill Callahan whose unenviable task is to replace John Gruden? Too many question marks surround this team and I would not be surprised if they found themselves on the outside looking in come playoff time. 1. Seattle Seahawks When will the Mike Holmgren hype finally die down? This guy won the Super Bowl in Green Bay with the help of a little known QB named Brett Favre. Since, his ego got the better of him and he left to Seattle where the Hawks have done nothing in his tenure. All of the Holmgren faithful say this is the year with Shaun Alexander at running back and Trent Dilfer at QB, but I just don't see it. Forget the fact that Seattle has to switch from the AFC to the NFC West. Forget the fact that they now face San Fran and St. Louis twice each this season. Swap an improving Arizona team for last years fledgling San Diego team, and you have the makings of a very long season for the Hawks and Mike Holmgren. Next stop, the unemployment line for Mikey. Nowhere to go but up: Teams on the Rise in 2002 4. San Diego Chargers San Diego broke out of the gates hard then faded and faded badly last season. Part of that can be attributed to injury and part to the wearing down of workhorse Ladainian Tomlinson. This year LT returns and should be more prepared to carry the full season's work load for the Chargers. Look for the defense to get an immediate - and much needed boost - from free agent signee Donnie Edwards. The biggest question mark is who will be the QB in 2002? My money is on Flutie with Schottenheimer running the shots, but don't be surprised if Drew Brees gets a shot early if Flutie loses any more of his magic. 3. Buffalo Bills This is a Buffalo team that is not too far removed from being a serious threat in the AFC. With the offseason acquisition of Drew Bledsoe, Buffalo almost automatically becomes a threat in the AFC East. OK, so it's not automatic but considering Buffalo improved on every aspect of their offense, things are looking up. The Buffalo defense however remains sketchy and there is too much competition in the AFC East to consider Buffalo a serious contender; hence, they are the first of four dark horses that could enter the playoff mix in 2002. Regardless of what they do, anyone not named Johnson put up nice numbers with this offense so look for Bledsoe to do the same while Rob Johnson is no longer an in-house distraction. 2. Atlanta Falcons The Atlanta Falcons entered the offseason and showed just how committed they were to getting this team back on track. The Super Bowl of a few years ago seemed like an eternity for Dan Reeves and the struggling birds. New owner Arthur Blank is not scared of opening his pocket book but he is of keeping around overpaid, past their prime talent. So the Atlanta said goodbye to Jamal Anderson and Chris Chandler making last year's first overall pick Michael Vick the man in Atlanta. During the offseason they managed to sign Warrick Dunn and Willie Jackson to join Vick and incumbent Shawn Jefferson. A plethora of free agent defensive talent was also brought in to help new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips as he begins the unenviable task of improving Atlanta's 30th ranked defense. Though the argument can be made that Reeves no longer has it, I think Atlanta is due for a turnaround this season. 1. Cleveland Browns A 7-9 season normally would have been great for the lowly Browns except when you realize they lost 5 of their last 6 as they faded late in the season as did their playoff hopes. This year the Browns used the offseason to bolster their offensive line, defense, and running back. The signing of rookie first rounder William Green from Boston College will play a big role in the Browns offense this season. With a question mark surrounding the WR corp, the Browns used their second round pick on Virginia Tech WR Andre Davis who should see some action this season. Though Davis does not look like as big a factor as Green, look for him to push Quincy Morgan and newly signed Chris Sanders for playing time. The Browns look sharp and should be ready to contend even in a tough division like the AFC North. With that, the preseason is just ahead and I have plenty of time to read your responses and even answer a few of them. I hope this year the report will contain at least one Super Bowl winner (whose NOT a pretender), but we shall wait and see. For those of you who are looking for more of these articles, they will be posted on my site as always. There is still much more to come this season including Fantasy articles as well. This year I look to continue my streak as I have won 10 of the last 12 leagues I have played in over the last 4 NFL seasons. Two of these leagues are for large amounts of money and are ran locally as I do not trust any websites that run contests with money involved. The only other place I play is at Sandbox which - by far - is the easiest league but what do you expect for a free contest. Sandbox actually is a good place for information as is The Sporting News for those of you interested. Like always, good luck this season and start checking out the site. I will be adding some new features and updating some old links so be sure to check us out as often as possible and keep the "hate mail" to a minimum! |
| Preface of 2002 Article |
| First of all hats off to ANYONE who picked New England to be doing anything except licking their wounds by the time January rolled around. Thank god 2001 is over because I know very few cappers who had a successful campaign. The playoffs were completely brutal as well; watching New England chew-up and spit-out contender after contender. This year, The Man's Third Annual "Contenders, Pretenders, and Dark Horses" will be out again sometime in mid July - hopefully between July 16-18. As always there will be some surprises, some not-so-surprises, and of course a flowing list of hate-mail from coast-to-coast (no BS, I got something around 50-60 e-mails last year alone - and most of'em were telling me how bad Chicago was going to suck!). But as I prepare to get into the spirit of the season let's take a quick look back at last year's predictions. Second of all, anyone following "The Man Says" on FanCast will know my lock of the season, put your mortgage down on it cause it's the easier than stealing - Washington Redskins under 9.5 wins. The 'Skins, favorites to win the NFC East, went 8-8 and have fired yet another coach. IF this money wasn't the easiest to come by in the last 10 years then I don't know what was. Schottenheimer out of retirement, Tony Banks at QB, and a team full of question marks. Sure their win-streak had me a little worried, but there was no way in hell they would have won 10 games with that schedule. Contenders of 2001 Denver Broncos(8-8): This team's season was really over when Ed McCaffrey broke his leg. From there on out the offense was mediocre and the defense left a lot to be desired. Injuries, injuries, and more injuries lead this team to a less than stellar 8-8 season. Tampa Bay(9-7): A 9-7 season and another first round playoff exit made Tony Dungy one of the first coaches fired at the end of the season. Dungy was never able to get the offense gelling and the defense lost a couple steps in 2001 as well. Oakland Raiders(10-6): Made it to the divisional playoffs only to be ousted by the upstart and eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots. Oakland was impressive throughout the season (save for a game here and there), but this year will age finally catch up to them? Pretenders of 2001: Not a miss in the bunch! Washington Redskins(8-8): As mentioned above, this team had no shot winning the NFC East with the likes of Philly around. The Redskins started out pathetic but finished the season strong with an 8-3 record. That wasn't enough to save Marty Schottenheimer's job and Steve Spurrier was brought in from the University of Florida to see if his "Fun-n-Gun" offense can work in the NFL. I hate to tell Steve, but Washington is not Florida, it's barely Vanderbilt! Indianapolis Colts (6-10): How do you favor a 9-7 team from a year before? The Colts made zero improvement to the defense and virtually stood pat on the offense. This year it showed when - for the first time - the Tripletts became a duet when "Edge" went down with a knee injury. The plain truth was they had one of the worst defenses in the league the last two seasons and THAT is why Jim Mora is gone and Tony Dungy is in a new home. Minnesota Vikings (5-11): Ahh, yes! This is one of the teams that sent me so much hate-mail. Now I don't want to gloat, but I feel compelled to. Robert Smith was a Pro-Bowl caliber running back and Minnesota's offense went the way of Smith. He opened up the air attack and allowed time for a mediocre passer (read Randall Cunningham, Jeff George, Daunte Culpepper, Brad Johnson) to get the ball down field to Moss and Carter. Michael Bennet was a rookie from Wisconsin, a team known to produce big backs mainly because they usually have one of the top rushing offensive lines in all of college football on a consistent basis. Furthermore, just look at the defense and you knew this team was in trouble. One last key, free agents were leaving Minnesota like it was the birthplace of ebola. Dark Horses of 2001 Kansas City Chiefs (6-10): OK, let's just say I way, way over-estimated the ability of Trent Green and the defense. I underestimted Priest Holmes saying he would be good, but I had no idea of just how good! Green put up good numbers but I'd rather see what he cold do with a healthy Derrick Alexander AND Sylvester Morris AND Tony Gonzalez. We will never get a chance to see it, but KC should be better than last season. New York Jets (10-6): Vinny and the Jets got their ticket to the post season but lost in the Wild Card game to Oakland. A good season all-in-all for the Jets. Chicago Bears (13-3): Just a kiss my Navy and Orange behind to all of the hate-mail for this one. The Bears found out a number of things last season: Anthony Thomas is a star of the future, the offense can run without Marcus Robinson, and sometimes it's good to be lucky. Chicago also found a number of rising stars on that defense and shows promise for the next 4 to 5 years at least. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3): This was my best shot at winning my $20 fun bet that paid off the year before on Baltimore. The Steelers surpassed most expectations and Kordell Stewart re-established himself as a premier QB in the NFL. Look for Cowher to get the most out of these guys again this season. There's the recap, but unfortunately no Super Bowl winer could be found in my 3 contenders OR my 4 dark horses. Three of the 7 were division champions and 5 of the 7 were playoff teams. Let's hope this year's "Contenders .." article goes even better I get the Super Bowl team again. If I don't, all complaints cane be sent to www.IamSmarterThanYourDumbAssSoBiteMe.com care of TheMan0612. One other note, I wanted to add a statistical recap of the article for the last 2 years. In the first year, I did not include the contenders, so we have only one year of those to look at, but here are the numbers anyway: 3 Contenders SU 28-23 ATS 21-27-3 Playoffs 2/3 Top 4 1/3 Conf Champs 0/3 SB Champ 0/3 6 Pretenders SU 52-47 ATS 42-55-2 Playoffs 2/6 Top 4 1/6 Conf Champs 0/6 SB Champs 0/6 7 Dark Horses SU 80-42 ATS 67-49-6 Playoffs 5/7 Top 4 2/7 Conf Champs 1/7 SB Champs 1/7 NOTE: The one winner was the Baltimore ravens on the 100-1 bet two season ago. Not a bad pay day for a $20 fun bet! |