2002 NFL Season Projected
Team Win Total Vegas Totals Poisson Results Play Edge W L W% P% L%
Arizona 6.511 6.5 -115 O/-115 U 52.5 UN / 47.5 OV  XXX
Atlanta   9.074 7.5 -130/EV 68.5 OV -130 OV 21.19% 100 130 68.5 31.5
Baltimore                5.276 7.5 +130/-160 83.6 UN -160 UN 35.85% 100 160 83.6 16.4
Buffalo                 7.030 7.0 -140/+110 14.9P/44.5UN/40.3OV +110 UN 8.35% 110 100 44.5 14.9 40.6
Carolina           3.833 5.5 -115/-115 81.1 UN -115 UN 51.62% 100 115 81.1 18.9
Chicago              12.554 8.5 -130/EV 87.8 OV -130 OV 55.34% 100 130 87.8 12.2
Cincinnati           7.910 7.0 -130/EV 14.1P/32.4UN/52.7 OV -130 OV 7.34% 100 130 52.7 14.1 33.2
Cleveland          9.880 8.5 +120/-150 65.4 OV +120 OV 43.88% 120 100 65.4 34.6
Dallas             6.821 6.5 -180/+140 47.7 UN/52.3 OV +140 UN 14.48% 140 100 47.7 52.3
Denver                 9.972 9.5 -125/-105 46.1 UN/53.9 OV XXX
Detroit                2.733 6.0 +120/-150 94.1 UN/3.7P/2.2OV -150 UN 60.53% 100 150 94.1 3.7 2.2
Green Bay              10.808 10.0 -180/+140 36.2 UN/12.1P/51.7OV XXX
Houston                6.698 4.5 +120/-150 79.8 OV +120 OV 75.56% 120 100 79.8 20.2
Indianapolis         7.707 9.5 -130/EV 75.2 UN EV UN 50.40% 100 100 75.2 24.8
Jacksonville         4.048 7.0 EV/-130 88.4UN/6.2P/5.4OV -130 UN 62.60% 100 130 88.4 6.2 5.4
Kansas City          5.729 7.5 EV/-130 78.0 UN -130 UN 38.00% 100 130 78 22
Miami                   10.690 9.5 -115/-115 62.5 OV -115 OV 16.85% 100 115 62.5 37.5
Minnesota               2.889 8.0 +110/-140 99.0 UN -140 UN 69.71% 100 140 99 1
New England          9.812 8.5 -160/+130 64.6 OV -160 OV 4.97% 100 160 64.6 35.4
New Orleans              6.347 7.0 +120/-150 55.1UN/14.1UN/30.5OV -150 UN 5.93% 100 150 55.1 14.1 30.8
New York Giants        4.067 7.5 +130/-160 94.5 UN -160 UN 53.56% 100 160 94.5 5.5
New York Jets   9.165 8.5 -110/-120 56.6 OV -110 OV 8.05% 100 110 56.6 43.4
Oakland                6.115 9.5 -105/-125 90.8 UN -125 UN 63.44% 100 125 90.8 9.2
Philadelphia         9.880 10.0 -130/EV 47.3UN/12.5P/40.2OV EV UN 7.10% 100 100 47.3 12.5 40.2
Pittsburgh           14.575 10.5 -115/-115 85.9 OV -115 OV 60.60% 100 115 85.9 14.1
San Diego           5.841 7.0 -140/+110 63.2UN/14.4P/23.4OV +110 UN 47.12% 110 100 63.2 14.4 22.4
San Francisco   13.786 10.0 EV/-130 81.0 OV EV OV 62.00% 100 100 81 19
Seattle                 7.796 8.5 -105/-125 62.1 UN -125 UN 11.78% 100 125 62.1 37.9
St. Louis                13.362 11.5 EV/-130 68.3 OV EV OV 36.60% 100 100 68.3 31.7
Tampa Bay             9.550 9.5 -150/+120 51.5 UN +120 UN 13.30% 120 100 51.5 48.5
Tennessee             8.787 8.5 -125/-105 51.6 OV XXX 100
Washington           6.754 8.5 EV/-130 76.1 UN -130 UN 34.64% 100 130 76.1 23.9

Poisson-ous Props: 2002 NFL Season Over\Unders 
This season at the Man's Free Picks we decided to try something new. We put together a power rating for each team based upon last season's final record and the offseason moves each team made. We then loaded this information into a computer program which alotted "games won" to each team based upon their strength of schedule (according to our power ratings). For example, two teams who meet with a 0 (ZERO) line would each get 0.5 games added to their total. In the Projected Wins Total, you will see the final number for each. Then we projected this out using Poisson versus each teams Vegas total and came up with a play and our perceived edge. Since this is our first year using this system, we will actively watch the results when January rolls around. Keep in mind as well, we only pass along information that we believe will be useful.

Good Luck,
The "staff" of The Man's Free Picks