September 21, 2003(10.14 PM EDT SEPTEMBER 21ST 2003):
Before we get to that, first a post-mordem on Isabel. Winds on Friday were certainly the biggest news. Easterlies generally in the 40 to 60 km/h range with gusts to 80 km/h were frequently observed at reporting stations across southern Ontario, especially near the lakes. Highest gust was 84 km/h at Port Colbourne at 10.31 am Friday. Huge 3 metre waves crashed along the shores of Erie and Ontario. Inland damage was confined to downed trees (a few of which landed on cars and homes). At one point 30,000 people lost power across West Toronto and near Kithcener-Waterloo but only for a few hours. Rain was not a big problem, however. Highest accumulation was 49mm at Sarnia, which at first was not even in the Heavy Rainfall Warning. About 34mm here in Toronto. Two areas, Kitchener and Hamilton, which were under a Heavy Rainfall Warning issued by Environment Canada came in with fairly low totals of 29mm and 27mm, respectively. There was ponding on roadways, but overall no urban/small stream flooding and definitely no major river flooding. On to the future. A cold front will be crossing the region very slowly tomorrow as a shortwave rounds the base of an upper trough. This will work together with a plume of Gulf moisture that has connectins with TS Marty in the eastern Pacific. Some indications that a weak wave will ride along the front, slowing it's progress even more. Expect rain, possibly heavy at times to spread into the Windsor are overnight then reach London by dawn slowly progressing to Toronto during the morning. Lots of UVV/strong convergence to produce embedded elevated thunderstorms, even without a lot of destabilization. As ridge over the Atlantic breaks down tomorrow night, the front will accelerate, allowing the rain to clear out of the southwest by early evening and Toronto by midnight. Totals accumulations of rain will range from 30 to 40 mm. With similar amounts falling just 48 hours ago, I'd suggest people tomorrow and Tuesday stay away from swollen rivers. Although no major flooding is expected, also expect urban and small stream flooding if you're caught under a thunderstorm. More unsettled weather for mid-end of week, but no steady rain. Also, much cooler with temperatures falling to the midteens by Friday. Michael Total 5-day Rainfall (in inches)
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