Avoiding UBI Anomalies
Lowell Manning
19 Epiha St.
Paraparaumu 6450
New Zealand
tel. & fax 04-298-6890
e-mail manning@home.kp.planet.gen.nz
SYNOPSIS
The paper provides, perhaps for the first time, a simple way to avoid anomalies in UBI distribution by treating a household as an additional "divisible" person.
A practical implementation method is provided using the electoral roll (habitation index).
The method provides seamless income distribution that closely matches existing income guarantees and expectations.
INTRODUCTION
Once the conceptual feasibility of UBI has been accepted, the primary question is:
How do we provide a universal income to all without creating anomalies so that some people like single parent families and elderly people living alone do not finish up worse off than they are under the present pension/benefit regime?
It is noted that everyone will have their own bank account (possibly with a new publicly owned NZ Universal Income Bank established to distribute UBI and handle everyday chequeing and cash services ) that will enable direct credit transfers of UBI payments to be made by computer.
The workshop questions are to stimulate discussion and further research.
DISABILITY ALLOWANCES
Some workers in the UBI area have been suggesting that special allowances should be payable to disabled or ill people to help them maintain a quality of life comparable to those more fortunate.
However, this destroys the universality of the UBI. The best way to deal with special needs is to fund them directly through the health service. The needs, are, after all primarily health related.
HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES
Far and away the greatest distortions in the UBI arise from fairly distributing the costs of housing. In a four person family household costs are effectively shared from four UBI payments, while someone living alone, on the face of it, has to pay the whole of the housing cost.
Some UBI proponents have suggested a system of means tested accommodation benefits to "top up" the UBI, but such an approach is then NOT universal, and also requires a cumbersome bureaucracy to be maintained to implement it.
Household UBI:
This paper proposes to overcome the issue of accommodation costs by providing each private household its own UBI in addition to the individual UBI payments. The private household UBI would be paid automatically into the accounts of all adults (those people over 18) registered on the electoral roll resident at any given address. If there is one such adult resident at an address and registered on the roll, that person would receive all the household UBI. If there are three adults resident at the address, each would automatically be paid a third share and so on. Where no adults are registered at an address (such as when the property is unoccupied or is a holiday home) no household UBI would be payable.
Level of household UBI:
The level of the private household UBI would need to exceed the current maximum accommodation supplement paid by Social Welfare (About $100/week in Auckland), For simplicity, and for conceptual integrity, it is set in this paper at the same level as the proposed individual adult UBI, though it is by no means essential to do this.
Striking it at this level encourages people (as does the UBI itself), other things being equal, to move away from high cost areas to lower cost areas. This is highly significant because UBI may reverse the present urban migration to the larger cities in the hope of finding work. Many people will be better off living elsewhere, revitalising the countryside.
Electoral enrolment:
Voter registration is already compulsory by law, though some people don't bother to register. The household UBI will ensure in practical terms that almost everyone will be encouraged to register in order to qualify for their share of the household UBI. The obvious roll format to use is the existing habitation index that lists voters by household and street.
Changing address:
There will be a strong incentive to correct the electoral roll registration on moving residence. In fact, those resident at an address would normally advise the electoral office when someone moves out, because otherwise their own share will be relatively decreased. For example, if there are three adults in a household they would get, say, $40/week each. If one of the adults leaves they would be entitled to $60/week each. And if one leaves, but doesn't report a change of address, and another person takes his or her place, the three resident current resident adults would get just $30/week instead of $40/week. So it is in the common interest to ensure that changes of address are registered.
If someone tries to "cheat" a resident out of their share by reporting them gone from their place of residence, the UBI payment of the "cheated" person would stop until they re-registered somewhere else. Anyone whose payments are unfairly stopped will know from their bank statement their UBI household payment has not been credited. The terms of reference of the disputes tribunals could be extended to provide immediate redress. There would be a substantial mandatory fine and perhaps a period of community service for deliberate "cheating", and incorrect payments would be corrected by computer entry on a case by case basis.
The rule, then, would be that each individual would change their electoral roll address on ARRIVAL, and the individual AND/OR remaining resident adults would check the registration is deleted on DEPARTURE.
While it is compulsory to register on the electoral roll already, those adults who are not registered and choose not to do so would not be punished under the UBI legislation (any action being left to the electoral law legislation as at present). But such persons would not receive their share of a household UBI and would not be entitled to do so.
Other offences:
It would be an offence to attempt to be registered at more than one address. It would be a criminal offence of fraud to register on the electoral roll under a false name, to register for an unoccupied or non-existent address or to buy or sell "residency" in such dwellings. The penalties for defrauding the state would include forfeiture of the household UBI for a determined period, a fine, community service and/or a prison sentence.
People living in public or government property:
Those people in long term hospital care, in prisons or other publicly funded institutions will not be entitled to a share of a household UBI. Their payments will stop automatically on entry (but note importantly that the FAMILY of such people will NOT suffer as a result, because the household payment would be re-distributed among the remaining adult members of the household).
People living in commercial premises:
Those people living PERMANENTLY in hotels, boarding houses, camps, motels and the like would qualify, but their payments might become very small if there are a lot of adults at a particular address.
There is a strong emphasis in the UBI concept towards household formation as distinct from living alone. As the size of the household increases, so does UBI income, making family and co-operative living arrangements far more attractive than has been the case in recent years. At the same time, the concept ensures that those who wish to have their own household can viably do so.
(There is always the alternative of treating a room/site as an address in its own right, if it is a part of commercial premises, though it is questionable whether in fact such living arrangements should be encouraged on a permanent basis.)
UBI PAYMENT TOTALS
With the household UBI in place, it is now fairly simple to work out the cost of UBI in terms of individual and household payments, both on a nation-wide basis and on the basis of family units.
Assumptions:
(The figures in this paper are just indicative and need to be matched against recent census data)
1. Number of occupied dwellings: 1,000,000 2. Number of adults: 2,600,000 3. Number of persons under 18: 1,000,000 4. Household UBI: $120/week $6240/year 5. Adult UBI: $120/week $6240/year 6. Under 18 UBI: $ 40/week $2080/year 7. Tax on earned income: 49% 8. Target minimum income: single 55% average = $250/week 9. Target minimum income: double 73% average = $330/week
Workshop Question 1.
Are the target minimum incomes realistic, and how do they compare with present GRI levels?
Workshop Question 2
How would you go about "fine tuning" guaranteed income levels?
GROSS COST household UBI: $6.24 billion adult UBI: $16.22 billion child UBI: $2.08 billion TOTAL: $24.54 billion
However, this is NOT a net transfer value of course. ALL taxpayers ALSO get their UBI payments back tax free. On present levels of earned income taxed at 49%, the total taxation is in the general order needed to fund the proposal if current levels of indirect and other taxes are maintained in some way. As the examples below show, the net transfer levels agree pretty well with current expectations.
AFFORDABILITY
Because UBI distributes income on an individual basis, afford ability depends not so much on individual earned incomes but on the net household incomes and the overall tax rate on those incomes.
The tax rate used in this paper should not be considered definitive until after the various income and tax permutations have been considered.
Other factors are also important. For example, if a Financial Transactions Tax were used to replace GST, most effective household disposable incomes would rise accordingly, and it would be rational to take such factors into account when deciding what tax rate to apply to earned income. If health services and education are fully funded instead of user pays, there would be a further corresponding increase in disposable incomes that should also be taken into account.
Workshop Question 3:
What are the current level of transfer payments in the form of benefits, superannuation, student and accommodation allowances?
Workshop Question 4:
What is meant by a "net" transfer level in the above calculation, and how would you go about working it out?
WORKING EXAMPLES: INDIVIDUAL UBI
a) Single person living alone 120+120 = $240/week b) Two people 120+240 = $360/week c) Single parent one child 120+120+40 = $280/week d) Single parent two children 120+120+80 = $320/week e) Two parents one child 120+240+40 = $400/week f) Two parents two children 120+240+80 = $440/week
However, while these figures are in the right range compared with current government provision, there are many other advantages. For example, there would be no surcharge on elderly people and no abatement of the UBI for any level of earned income. Anyone can maximise their income subject only to payment of the earned-income tax rate. It is ALWAYS worth working or seeking an investment income and everyone 'competes" on a equal basis.
Workshop Question 5
How do the above figures compare with the present levels of pensions and benefits.
Workshop Question 6
What corrections need to be made to get a better match against existing payments?
EFFECTIVE TAX RATES AND HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
Leaving other things as they are, we would want to compare overall tax on household incomes. UBI creates a perfectly progressive "seamless" tax curve starting from zero if the UBI is your only income, and increasing steadily until it approaches 49%, though it will never quite get there.
a) Single person living alone
Earning 5000 + UBI 12480; tax 2450 on total 17480 = 14.0% Earning 15000 + UBI 12480; tax 7350 on total 27480 = 26.8% Earning 30000 + UBI 12480; tax 14700 on total 42480 = 34.6% Earning 50000 + UBI 12480; tax 24500 on total 62480 = 39.2%
b) Two person household both earning
1 earning 5000 + UBI 9360; tax 2450 on total 14360 = 17.2% 1 earning 15000 + UBI 9360; tax 7350 on total 24360 = 30.2% Household tax 9800 on total 38720 = 25.3% Net household income $28920 = $556/week 1 earning 10000 + UBI 9360; tax 4900 on total 19360 = 25.3% 1 earning 30000 + UBI 9360; tax 14700 on total 39360 = 37.4% Household tax 19600 on total 58720 = 33.4% Net household income $39120 = $752/week
c) Household income Single parent one child
Earning 5000 + UBI 14560; tax 2450 on total 19560 = 12.5% Net household income $17110 = $329/week Earning 15000 + UBI 14560; tax 7350 on total 29560 = 24.9% Net household income $22210 = $427/week Earning 30000 + UBI 14560; tax 14700 on total 44560 = 33.0% Net household income $29860 = $574/week Earning 50000 + UBI 14560; tax 24500 on total 64560 = 38.0% Net household income $40060 = $770/week
d) Household income Single parent two children
Earning 5000 + UBI 16640; tax 2450 on total 21640 = 11.3% Net household income $19190 = $369/week Earning 15000 + UBI 16640; tax 7350 on total 31640 = 23.2% Net household income $24290 = $467/week Earning 30000 + UBI 16640; tax 14700 on total 46640 = 31.5% Net household income $31940 = $614/week Earning 50000 + UBI 16640; tax 24500 on total 66640 = 36.8% Net household income $42140 = $810/week
e) Household income two parents one child
1 earning Nil + UBI 10400; tax NIL on total 10400 = 0% 1 earning 15000 + UBI 10400; tax 7350 on total 25400 = 28.9% Household tax 7350 on total 35800 = 20.5% Net household income $28450 = $547/week 1 earning 5000 + UBI 10400; tax 2450 on total 15400 = 15.9% 1 earning 30000 + UBI 10400; tax 14700 on total 40400 = 36.4% Household tax 17150 on total 55800 = 30.7% net household income $38650 = $743/week 1 earning NIL + UBI 10400; tax NIL on total 10400 = 0% 1 earning 50000 + UBI 10400; tax 24500 on total 60400 = 40.6% Household tax 24500 on total 70800 = 34.6% Net household income $46300 = $890/week
f) Household income two parents two children
1 earning 0 + UBI 11440; tax 0 on total 11440 = 0% 1 earning 15000 + UBI 11440; tax 7350 on total 26440 = 27.8% Household tax 7350 on total 37880 = 19.4% Net household income $30530 = $587/week 1 earning 5000 + UBI 11440; tax 2450 on total 16440 = 14.9% 1 earning 30000 + UBI 11440; tax 14700 on total 41440 = 35.5% Household tax 17150 on total 57880 = 29.6% Net household income $40730 = $783/week 1 earning 0 + UBI 11440; tax 0 on total 11440 = 0% 1 earning 50000 + UBI 11440; tax 24500 on total 61440 = 39.9% Household tax 24500 on total 72880 = 33.6% Net household income $48380 = $930/week
PROGRESSIVE TAX SCALE
The tax curve looks like this:
The maximum marginal tax rate is therefore just under 49% on the basis of the present proposal.
Workshop Question 7
Work out typical incomes for professional workers and for single income cases (such as where one person is sick or disabled), and compare with what those households would receive now.
Workshop Question 8
Work out typical incomes for cases where there are more than two children and compare with what those households would receive now
Workshop Question 9
Would the figures for professional people with dependent children encourage them to seek day care, and expand the service employment base?
Workshop Question 10
At what net household income levels does household income begin to reduce compared to what is the case under the new July 1996 tax provisions?
Workshop Question 11
Work out typical incomes for cases where there are more than two children and compare with what those households would receive now.
Workshop Question 12
Work out, in rough terms your present family income as of today and compare it against the above figures.
Workshop Question 13
Work out typical examples showing what happens to the net household income when there are more than two adults in a household, for the various cases when they are working or not working (e.g. students, ill, disabled).
Workshop Question 14
Work out present household incomes for some of the examples and compare them to those obtained under the UBI proposal.
HOUSEHOLD TAX-RATES IN A NUTSHELL
The primary and conservative test is to ensure household tax rates are in line with present taxation levels.
Income group Probable classification
Single income living alone: 26% on 27000, 34% on 42000; OK Two people both earning: 25% on 38000, 33% on 58000; a bit marginal Single parent one child: 25% on 30000, 33% on 45000; just OK Single parent two children: 23% on 31000, 31% on 46000; a bit marginal Two parents one child: 21% on 36000, 31% on 56000; a bit low Two parents two children: 19% on 38000, 30% on 58000; a bit low
Any corrective action really depends on how other policies are "packaged" as it needs to be borne in mind that while tax increases quite sharply with greater family income, families without earned income pay no tax.
SUMMARY
In as far as "benefits" and superannuation are concerned, the present proposal can deliver a comparable level of benefits to those applying at present. Depending on the level of detailed matching required, some thought could be given to slightly increasing the "household" UBI, decreasing slightly the individual UBI, and increasing slightly the child's UBI over the figures shown.
The household tax rates are "in the right ball park" when compared to the new tax rate regimes, but further work may show they need to be increased a little if the DISTRIBUTION of household incomes changes substantially as a result of the proposal.
APPENDIX A
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Working for figures:
Tax rate on earned income 50% Household UBI $150 Individual UBI $100 Child UBI $ 40 Gross cost: 9.36 + 13.52 + 2.08 = 24.96 billion
The workings show that once the concept of household UBI is accepted, the figures are remarkably insensitive to changes in the relationship between household and individual UBI easily enabling target criteria to be met (in this case the targets for one and two people living alone).
Working examples:
a) Single person living alone 150 + 100 = $250/week b) Two people 150 + 200 = $350/week c) Single parent one child 150 + 100 + 40 = $290/week d) Single parent two children 150 + 100 + 80 = $330/week e) Two parents one child 150 + 200 + 40 = $390/week f) Two parents two children 150 + 200 + 80 = $430/week
CHANGES IN EFFECTIVE TAX RATES AND HOUSEHOLD INCOMES WITH CHANGES IN HOUSEHOLD AND INDIVIDUAL UBI
a) Single person living alone
Earning 5000 + UBI 13000; tax 2500 on total 18000 = 13.9% Earning 15000 + UBI 13000; tax 7500 on total 28000 = 26.8% Earning 30000 + UBI 13000; tax 15000 on total 43000 = 34.9% Earning 50000 + UBI 13000; tax 25000 on total 63000 = 39.7%
b) Two person household both earning
1 Earning 5000 + UBI 9100; tax 2500 on total 14100 = 17.7% 1 Earning 15000 + UBI 9100; tax 7500 on total 24100 = 31.1% Household tax 10000 on total 38200 = 26.2% Net household income $28200 = $542/week 1 Earning 10000 + UBI 9100; tax 5000 on total 19100 = 26.2% 1 Earning 30000 + UBI 9100; tax 15000 on total 39100 = 38.4% Household tax 20000 on total 58200 = 34.4% Net household income $38200 = $734/week
c) Household income Single parent one child
Earning 5000 + UBI 15080; tax 2500 on total 20080 = 12.5% Net Household income $17580 = $338/week Earning 15000 + UBI 15080; tax 7500 on total 30080 = 24.9% Net Household Income $22210 = $427/week Earning 30000 + UBI 15080; tax 15000 on total 45080 = 33.3% Net Household Income $30080 = $578/week Earning 50000 + UBI 15080; tax 25000 on total 65080 = 38.4% Net Household Income $40080 = $770/week
d) Household income single parent two children
Earning 5000 + UBI 17160; tax 2500 on total 22160 = 11.3% Net household income $19190 = $369/week Earning 15000 + UBI 17160; tax 7500 on total 32160 = 23.3% Net household income $24290 = $467/week Earning 30000 + UBI 17160; tax 15000 on total 47160 = 31.8% Net household income $32160 = $618/week Earning 50000 + UBI 17160; tax 25000 on total 67160 = 37.2% Net household income $42160 = $810/week
e) Household income two parents one child
1 earning NIL + UBI 10140; tax NIL on total 10140 = 0% 1 earning 15000 + UBI 10140; tax 7500 on total 25140 = 29.8% Household tax 7500 on total 35280 = 21.3% Net household income $27780 = $534/week 1 earning 5000 + UBI 10140; tax 2500 on total 15140 = 16.5% 1 earning 30000 + UBI 10140; tax 15000 on total 40140 = 37.4% Household tax 17500 on total 55280 = 31.7% Net household income $37780 = $726/week 1 earning NIL + UBI 10140; tax NIL on total 10140 = 0% 1 earning 50000 + UBI 10140; tax 25000 on total 60140 = 41.6% Household tax 25000 on total 70280 = 35.6% Net household income $45280 = $870/week
f) Household income two parents two children
1 earning 0 + UBI 11180; tax 0 on total 11180 = 0% 1 earning 15000 + UBI 11180; tax 7500 on total 26180 = 28.7% Household tax 7500 on total 37360 = 20.1% Net household income $29860 = $574/week 1 earning 5000 + UBI 11180; tax 2500 on total 16180 = 15.5% 1 earning 30000 + UBI 11180; tax 15000 on total 41180 = 36.4% Household tax 17500 on total 57360 = 30.5% Net household income $39860 = $766/week 1 earning 0 + UBI 11180; tax 0 on total 11180 = 0% 1 earning 50000 + UBI 11180; tax 25000 on total 61180 = 40.9% Household tax 25000 on total 72360 = 34.6% Net Household income $47360 = $911/week
© 1996 Lowell Manning