BASIC
PRINCIPLES OF FUTUROLOGY
WHY
TO SPECULATE ON FUTURE
- To
understand. Events happened might be understood easier by understanding those
to happen.
- In order
to disallow mortgage of future by someone. This is the problem for next three
centuries: Neo-informatic-cognitive fascism: to create an information
vacuum.
- Definitely
not to determine the future.
- Since it
is the most attractive problem epistemologically, i.e. for navigating towards
intelligence that is impossible to capture.
- Brain will
be more sensitive by creating ideas that are proven or not. Since the brain
will learn to think in a sophisticated manner.
- Not
because of the path of the Roman Club. Future is not estimated to direct the
mass [crowd?].
- Not to
sell figures. Acts of the World Future Association are shameful (with
the softest word). (Yearly turnover of future estimation job in US is said to
be about 200 billion dollars in 1998.)
- In order
to take notes. Future of today will be the past in future. Brief records allow
future people to avoid making our mistakes.
HOW
TO ESTIMATE FUTURE
- Future
estimation is made in specific locations/moments with certain intervals
oriented to finalization of certain nodal events. Amplitude of the oscillation
is the maximum of uncertainty. Nodes are the minimum uncertainty but the
amplitude limit is not necessarily zero.
- Irrelevant
indicators are excluded. Wavelength (: emotional/ subjective behavior of the
historian) of the phase conjugation
beam (: mind with historical consciousness) affects the panorama (: paints in
a certain color). Relevant indicators are used with quite narrow (about 1%)
sampling.
- Estimating
the future is not determining it. Sometimes 100% intervention causes a 0
result and sometimes 0 intervention causes 100% (perfects and desired)
result.
- Simplest
method: Data and trends in the statistics books are taken. A maximum, a medium
and a minimum estimate are made. The results are 95% accurate. In case of an
exception, it means that the equations will be changed
anyway.
- Moderately
difficult method: the big numbers theory is applied. In history, iterations,
discontinuities, and ups and downs always exist. Simulations (extrapolations
and interpolations) of similar examples are applied also to
future.
- Most
difficult method: To take a very decisive decision at a very narrow space.
E.g., selecting to save a Jew or Marxist, although they are both wrong before
the 2nd World War.
- Leading
cases: An inspiration from the law. Even if it is a wrong estimation (decision
/ selection), to accept the example because a same / similar one was applied
previously.
- Act of
future estimation also affects interpretation of the past. As a matter of
fact, the same past was interpreted in different ways in the past. Similarly,
the future can be interpreted and estimated in different
ways.
- Samples:
Who will win the 1999 elections? As a result of interaction of macro-political
powers in highly complex relations, Apo was
arrested in February 1999. Certainly, this made DSP the first party. While the
possibility was a DSP-ANAP coalition before this event, now a DSP power may be
expected.
18.
Continuation: Who will be elected as the
President in 2000? A sensational answer: Rahşan Ecevit. Logical answer: Bülent
Ecevit. (Note: I didn't know that Ecevit was not a university graduate, which is
a requirement to be elected as the President.) Explanation: Demirel wants
himself to stay, but the army does not want him. And Demirel, in part as an
obligation, will pay his debt of gratitude, because Ecevit could well try to
bring him down.
- Finally:
Will Demirel turn back to politics? If he stays alive and if he can, he
certainly thinks of it but realization possibility of this plan is too
low.
(February
1999)