1/6/05 -- Something about this chart says "failed breakout attempt" to me, but I don't have time to tease it all out right now. The rally seems to be a feeble reaction to FRO touching support that pales in comparison to the momentum on the downside. On top of that, given the strength of the move down, and the length of the move up that preceded the drop, FRO needs to stabilize before it can show strength again. Your looking at a track runner that's been running two years without a break, got sick from too much running but kept going anyway, and finally got clobbered with a two by four and lynched on the highway. FRO needs time in the hospital. FRO needs to spend some time with Mrs. FRO.





1/4/05 --



12/29/04 -- Here is the big picture with Frontier, followed by a chart with the "small picture" --

FRO seems to be bouncing off support at 42-43 created by the very bottom channel line, the well-formed and strong consildation at 40-41, and the 50-week moving average. Upside targets are 53 and 64. Downside stop below 40. Problems are that sell volume has lately been greater than buy volume, RSI on the last runup wasn't as high as it had been previously when the stock was at a lower price, and it hasn't consolidated since falling 30%.

On the fundamental/value side, valueforum gurus are looking for $3 a quarter in 2005, making a 27% yield taxed at a 15% rate.

Overall, I'd say there is a good risk/reward ratio and am considering entering a small position. I may wait for better prices because I'm not convinced it's done dropping.



Here's the small picture on FRO: