Bonner-Boersen-Briefe
Bonner-Boersen-Briefe
issue 5/98
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In this newsletter we write about the current situation at Stock-Markets. The emphasis lays on the Eastern-Eurean "Emering-Markets" as well as on possible developements in the U.S.A. and Germany.
Prognosis for the weeks beginning at Monday, 15th of June, 1998
The view back
As at these days normal, with our last newsletter-suggestions we had been wrong and right at the same time (German issue).
So we couldn't see increasing interest rates in Germany. Following to the decrease down to 1.3% in the inflation-rate in Germany - compared with the same periode the year before.
Europe/West
On the one hand we saw the easily break of the border of 5,600 points in the German DAX-Index. Nevertheless we would be careful. These strong increases always had been followed by stronger decreases.
From this point of view we can only guess to "hold", not to "buy". An exeption could be given in the new value JENOPTIK. We expect because of a good management and innovative products on the field of laser-electronics a price of more than 100,- DM (Emission-price appr. 20,- DM!).
Our estimation concerning the French-Market had been fulfilled. Personnes who are "bullish" should buy "Blue-Chips" there. It's not a long time ago, that the French CAC-40 index was higher than the German DAX. Now the DAX is valued 50% higher...
Japan
The words about the weakness of japanese economics seems to be sawn right. Nevertheless - and not expected - the NIKKEI-Index did not fall below the mark of 15,000 points. We hold on this negative meaning. So investigations in Japan one has to avoid.
U.S.A.
We are moving horizontal with the DJI. That does not mean not to see ATHs, but in total there are missing impulses to grow them up. At the NASDAQ are, of course, some interesting titles. A Selection has to be made very carefully. IIS-Technology (NASDAQ: IISLF) possibly made a mistake in putting 3-to-1 shares. The title looks speculative and the last quarterly results didn't fulfill our expections. The loss could be reduced only to 7 cents/share. On the other hand the management of IIS tried/tries to occupy new operational fields on the network/mainframe-computer markets. If this politics works, we hold on our prognosis of a win in the second half of the year. Then the p/e-ration would be extremely low.
Europe/East
Moscow!?!
One day of losses follows another. The main question is "to buy now?".
We think yes. Of course prices can decrease a little more. But even in this case the investor will a see a double-price of his buying one.
In our last issue (German version) we suggested to buy energy-companies at a lower price-level. This is given now. Beside of such titles (e.g.MOSENERGO) now the time is ripe for buying TORGOVY DOM (GUM-Warehouse) as well as GAZPROM.
So much for this issue, good success
Martin Pochner
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Written for you on June 15th 1998 by Martin Pochner