Radio One 990
CBC Winnipeg
Monday, October 18, 2004
Host: Terry McLeod
Guests: Garth Steek, President, MHBA
Jino Distasio, Urban Affairs, University of Winnipeg
CBC: As we’ve been hearing in the news, the battle lines are being drawn between the supporters and the opponents of the massive Waverley West development. In the coming months City hall is going to be debating the merits of the massive new housing development. And in the run up to that, the discussing, the lobbying, has begun. We’re joined now for part of this by Jino Distasio from the University of Winnipeg’s Urban Affairs department. Hello, Jino.
Distasio: Good morning.
CBC: And Garth Steek, who’s the President now of the Manitoba Home Builders’ Association, former City councillor and candidate for Mayor. Hello, Garth Steek.
Steek: Terry, good morning. Nice to be here.
CBC: And if I could start with you, Garth. The Manitoba Home Builders’ Association is supporting Waverley West, pushing actively for it. Why do you think Winnipeg needs it?
Steek: Well, I think it’s very clear cut. From the report that’s been recently released by the Property and Development department. There’s a tremendous shortage of building lots within the City of Winnipeg. But first of all there’s a great news story happening and that’s that there’s a significant population increase happening here annually, four to six thousand people. We know that the average size of the family unit has reduced from about 3.7 in 1962 down to 2.4 today. We will build over 2,500 new homes this year. Next year we are predicting 3,000, and Stats Canada confirms it will be 3,000 and more for the next decade. Very frankly, the situation is such that both in the South East and South West quadrants of the City we’ve basically run out of developable land. There are only 460 lots left in the South West quadrant of Winnipeg, which is less than a year’s supply. So we need Waverley West. It’s not an either or situation of Waverley West versus the downtown, there will always be infill, but clearly people should have the right to live where they want to.
BC” So, Jino Distasio. That’s a pretty compelling argument?
Distasio: It is. I would throw out that in terms of the population growth, what we have been seeing is a net growth primarily as a result of immigration, and the majority of those new immigrants coming into the City certainly aren’t going to be moving to [an] affluent sub-division such as Waverley West. They are going to be trying to find affordable housing, which is in itself a crisis in this City. But in terms of Waverley West and developing land, there is certainly a need to balance supply and demand. The issues that I raise with Waverley West are, firstly, that it is a massive site, a scale that we haven’t seen built out in the City of Winnipeg.
Second, it has a potential to command anywhere from 20 to 40% of every new house built in the City of Winnipeg for the next few years.
And thirdly, it has the potential, if this is the last spot in the South West quadrant, these developers will essentially have control of development in that part of the City. And we’re going to concentrate it into a few hands. So is that going to be the best way for the City to proceed in terms of a development at this scale?
CBC: What happens, Garth Steek, if you don’t get Waverley West?
Steek: Well, I think the critical issue is this. We know that there are 550 new homes being built outside the City of Winnipeg on an annual basis, Terry. There are 11,000 lots that are out there ready for development. So there is a 20-year supply outside the City of Winnipeg. With every house that leaves, at an average of $200,000 a home, that’s $2,400 to $2,5000 tax dollars, municipal dollars only, that leave the City of Winnipeg forever.
I think what you have to understand is this. Mr. Distasio talks about the importance of affordable housing. What has happened is because of the shortage of lots, we have now seen the average price of a new house in the CMA, the Central Metropolitan Area, spring to $230,000. Next year’s CMHC says we’ll hit $255,000. We are now the third most expensive jurisdiction in the country when it comes to the Affordability Index, namely the price of the home relative to your income. One of the things that the MHBA has premised its existence on is not only a quality home, but an affordable home. And if Mr. Distasio wants to see affordable homes, he’s going to have to realize that we must have lots that are affordable for people to purchase.
CBC: Jino Distasio, what do you see then as the alternatives to developing Waverley West?
Distasio: Well, we face so many challenges in this City. The key thing is that our population is growing a little bit quicker, no doubt, but we’re still hovering around the 1% mark. So that’s meaning most of the growth in the housing market is coming from a redistribution of our existing population. Household sizes haven’t increased dramatically, in fact they’ve dropped since 1971 to a low of about three persons to household right now. Growth has been seen in single families, lone occupants and things like this. [I’m also concerned that] we have 25,000 homes, nearly 10% of our housing stock that’s in need of major repairs. We’re adding a massive sub-development here, so we’re going to be pulling more people. I don’t buy the argument that somebody that can’t find a house in South Winnipeg, who’s living in River Heights right now, is immediately going to look to moving outside of the City instead of looking towards the re-sale market, which has hit a billion dollars right now. Winnipegers are at the bottom end of expenditures on renovation, where we’re spending about $2,000 on average here. So there’s lots of room. We do need a lot more housing, there’s no doubt, we need to balance with new housing starts. I’m an advocate of expanding development. I’m just concerned with the way we’re proceeding here, and we’re sounding alarm bells before we do our homework. We need to do a bit more work here.
Steek: With all due respect, we’ve done an enormous amount of homework, and that’s what’s been substantiated in the report from the Property and Development department. There are three types of land, Terry. There’s green land, green field, which is absolutely raw land, which is what Waverley West is. There are infill developments where you’ve got small acreage, with limited numbers of opportunities to go in the City of Winnipeg, and last, you have opportunities for redevelopment. Areas like Kapyong Barracks, for instance. But those, even though they seem relatively large, probably only have the potential for five or six hundred homes, and they’re five or six years away. It’s not a question of whether or not we are going to have a crisis. We have a crisis now. And one of the things that you have to recognize is this. If people don’t build within this city, they go outside the city, we lose that tax base. Forever. Number one, but one of the other, critical concerns is the home building industry is on the peak of a wave right now. But of our 60 homebuilders we know that a tremendous number of them are custom builders that do a couple of dozen homes a year. If there isn’t an opportunity in the South West and South East quadrants to build, and with all due respect people buy where they want to buy, if we don’t give those people the opportunity to purchase there, we’re also going to be putting some of these builders out of business, and we’ll have dramatic effects on all the sub-trades, and all the businesses that do business with the home building industry. Mr. Distasio talked about the lack of renovations. Interestingly enough, home renovations in the province of Manitoba is a bigger business than is new home building. Home renovations are in excess of $375 million, whereas we have about $350 million in new homes. We have a wonderful opportunity here to take where there’s growth situation in this city and capitalize on it.
Calgary, for instance, will build 15,000 new homes this year. The city of Winnipeg will definitely build 2,500 plus this year. If you take a look at the report from the University of Winnipeg, there are only, at most, four to five hundred infill lots in the inner city, in the shoulder area. So if everybody even wanted live to there, we’ve only got a quarter year’s supply.
CBC. Alrighty. Well, lots to talk about here. And we’ll be asking the Mayor where he stands on things now, when he comes by at 8:15. So thanks so much for this.
Steek: It’s a pleasure. Thank you very much.
CBC. Garth Steek. And Jino Distasio. Garth Steek, President now of the Manitoba Home Builders’ Association, and Jino Distasio with the Urban Affairs department at the University of Winnipeg. Your thoughts on Waverley West? Give our listener line a call at 788-3205.