Telecommunications technology has entered the digital age and communications will never be the same again. Moore's Law means that telecom equipment companies must start eating their children as rapidly as computer equipment companies, or simply fall into irrelevance. It also means that the world's installed telecom capacity today will soon constitute a tiny, obsolescent fraction of the new information infrastructure that begins emerging today. That's because over the next few years this emerging infrastructure will link up billions of people who've never heard dial tone before, and in little more than a decade it will link the poorest individuals among them up with services many operators and equipment suppliers can't offer their richest corporate customers today.

George Gilder gives an amazing overview of this process, describing the technological potential that some key future players, like Tellabs Wireless , Qualcomm, and ArrayComm bring to the local loop table. The exponentially rising cost-effectiveness these players offer mean that countries like Mexico could have telecomm infrastructures that bring Internet access to virtually the entire population by the year 2000.

My work brings some basic CAS theory to bear on Mexico's reception for these revolutionary technologies. This includes some earlier columns for The News:

"Making Contact" talks about the potential in new telecommunications technology to restructure Mexican agricultural production and commerce. Like much of what you'll see here, this is just one example that you can easily transfer to some other part of the economy -- telecommunications can restructure (fill in the blank) much as it can restructure agricultural production and commerce. Play the game -- it's fun and educational!

"A Copper Cage for Mexico" discusses the impact of Roman Practice on Mexico's regulatory decisions for setting the rates and fees that influence the adoption of these unprecedented opportunities, contrasting it with the wide-open approach of Britain's Common Practice.

"Unleashing Mexico's Creativity" looks at a regulatory dispute between Avantel and Telmex, and discusses how the Roman Practice and Common Practice perspectives affect each companies viewpoint. Given the two different corporate viewpoints, the regulatory decision will tell observers a lot about how COFETEL approaches its job.

My work also includes the latest series of The News columns leading up to EXPO COMM Telecommunicaciones Mexico 1997 (mail to: mexinfo@ejkrause.com), from February 11 to 14:

"Mexican Connections" examines how the new technologies could affect Mexico's old telecommunications monopolist, Telmex, and whether COFETEL's policies will protect TELMEX or the public interest.

"Faster Mexican Connections" analyzes how an SCT spectrum allocation could create a world-class Mexican telecomm infrastructure using new low-interference technologies, giving Mexico’s youth a major advantage in the next century’s global economic boom.

"Blazing Mexican Connections" tells how Mexico could use the vast new wealth from a modern telecommunications infrastructure to compensate the losers in Telmex's bankruptcy.

"Reconnecting Mexico" lays out that a transition that could advance Mexico from Industrial Age telecommunications to Digital Age telecommunications.

"Mexico Reconnected" confirms Gilder's vision for Digital Age communications, and talks about how it could even help clean up Mexico's environment.

"Mexico's Wealth: Youth and Bandwidth" contrasts Purificacion Carpinteyro's accurate vision of the future with Telmex's apparent attempts to delay its arrival.

The series continues... look for comments about COMDEX in next Tuesday's latest column.

Let me know what you think!

Return to Mark White's Home Page

This page hosted by GeoCities Get your own Free Home Page