The Soapbox

Rockville, MD ¨ 31 March 2004 ¨ wshingleton@hotmail.com

The Soapbox Archive

As we all know after 2000, the presidential election is not an exercise in winning the popular vote, but in winning the Electoral College. The following is the Soapbox's breakdown of the current state of play in the Electoral College and is based on state voting history and current polling data.

 A bad month for Bush, a worse one for Kerry as the Bush political machine got on the warpath, attempting to define Kerry as a traditional tax-and-spend liberal. Kerry was left with little opportunity to respond as he was on vacation and raising money for the general election. Kerry has also been endorsed by Howard Dean, which may or may not be a good thing. More to the point, in addition to the skiing vacation Kerry had shoulder surgery that will keep him out for a week - combined with his prostate cancer surgery last year, Kerry's health is starting to become a factor in that it is preventing him from devoting his full effort to the campaign. Luckily for Kerry, Bush has had to contend with his own problems with the Richard Clarke testimony and book tour eviscerating the Bushies for their preparation for 9-11. Still, Bush leaves March ahead in most major polls and gaining traction by going through the Kerry record.

The breakdown:

Kerry Votes (247): Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin

Bush Votes (291): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming

The Swing States: North Dakota, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Tennessee,  Pennsylvania, Missouri, New Mexico, Louisiana, Michigan, Maine, Minnesota, Connecticut, Illinois

 

Changes: Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Missouri, New Mexico from Kerry to Bush

Previous:

28 February 2004 Kerry 295 Bush 243

 

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