Rockville, MD ¨ 28 February 2004 ¨ wshingleton@hotmail.com

The Soapbox Archive

Red Sox Nation, come down off the ledge. I know that you think that the Yankees wrapped yet another World Series crown with their acquisition of Alex Rodriguez to play third base. True, the Evil Empire now has one of the great left sides of the infield of all time. But the Soapbox makes this bold prediction: The Yankees Will Not Win the World Series. Of course, neither will the Red Sox, but that is for another post. Here's my reasoning on the Yankees:

· Pitching: You cannot win a World Series without pitching, and the Yankees in their splurging on Gary Sheffield and Alex Rodriguez forgot to retain a solid starting rotation. They lost David Wells, Andy Pettitte, and Roger Clemens in the offseason; this comes on top of recent losses of Orlando Hernandez and David Cone, both stalwarts of the World Series championship teams. Now their rotation shapes up as Mussina, Contreras, Brown, Vazquez, Lieber. Two of these guys (Brown, Lieber) are coming off of arm surgery. One (Contreras) has a year of major-league experience, and another (Vazquez) has been pitching in Montreal, which has a slightly less ferocious sports media than New York. The bullpen isn't getting any better either. Paul Quantrill is a good addition to the pen, but they lost innings-eater Jeff Weaver and Jeff Nelson. There's some serious questions Mariano Rivera. The Yankee closer pitched well in the regular season the last few years but seems to be running out of gas in the postseason, the result of age and the lack of middle relief.

· Hitting: Yankees management seems to feel that it has adjusted for the lack of pitching depth by providing more pop to the lineup, adding the likes of Sheffield and Alex Rodriguez to the lineup. But there's a difference between adding pop and adding hitting. The Yankees over the last few years have moved away from guys who hit line drives with average power (Paul O'Neill, Tino Martinez, Wade Boggs) to guys who hit for power but not necessarily for average (Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield). And if the Yankees want power, you would think with the short right field porch that they would load up on lefties. But Sheffield and A-Rod both hit from the right side of the plate, which makes their power alley the monstrous Yankee Stadium left-center field. Sheffield is at the end of his career, and A-Rod has been playing in the bandbox that is the Ballpark at Arlington for the last few years. Don't expect the same kind of numbers.

· Defense: Who is going to play outfield? Right now the Yankees have Kenny Lofton in center, but the corner outfielders (Sheffield and Matsui) are not known for their speed or, in Sheffield's case, arms. There's going to be confusion on the left side of the infield early while A-Rod gets used to third base, though this will eventually sort itself out. And the double-play combination will change, causing confusion on the right side thanks to the new second baseman. If the Yankees scuffle and trade for another second baseman, the process starts all over again (I personally think the Yankees will deal for the Montreal's Jose Vidro, Milwaukee's Junior Spivey, or the Cubs' Todd Walker before the All-Star Break).

· Team Chemistry and Management: Like the current New England Patriots, the Yankees used to be built on role players who would take one for the team. These were the days of Tino Martinez, Paul O'Neill, Shane Spencer, David Cone, Ramiro Mendoza, Luis Sojo, Andy Pettitte. Now the team is built as a collection of superstars like Sheffield, Giambi, Brown, and Alex Rodriguez. Some of these guys are not exactly known to be team players. If the Yankees don't win early and often, look for fissures to develop in the clubhouse. Manager Joe Torre is the same, but his authority is constantly being undercut by the Boss. Moreover, he's lost two top assistants in Leo Mazzilli and Don Zimmer. Heck, even Darryl Strawberry bolted.

· The Division: The last few years the Yankees have been able to coast in late September because they had a sizeable lead, allowing Torre to rest his starters and bullpen and to get his reserves some action. The Yankee's age hasn't been much of a factor in the offseason because they got to play so many easy games in one of the weakest divisions in baseball. That won't happen this year. The Red Sox are reloaded and stronger, particularly in the pitching department, and the division race could go to the wire. Toronto has a crop of pitchers coming up that will likely keep them in the hunt for a wild card spot. Baltimore, long a doormat, went on a spending spree and will likely make a run at .500. Even Lou Piniella's Devil Rays have improved, and you can't believe that a team with Don Zimmer will just roll over in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees may still win the division, but the battle will be so bloody that they'll limp into the playoffs and will likely face a first-round defeat from the likes of Oakland or Seattle.

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