I wrote my thesis on Uzbekistan's transition from a Soviet-style post-totalitarianism to East-Asian style authoritarianism. This may seem like a small difference, but it actually has two broad implications.
Under the Soviet system, there was no civil society, no experience with any type of contested elections, and nothing that resembled a legal market economy. By contrast, Uzbekistan today has some non-political civil society, multicandidate elections for virtually every post, and a private sector that accounts for about 20% of GDP (or more, depending on how the analysis is performed). Since three opposition parties are banned and there is no real competition for the post of president, Uzbekistan is still running a sham democracy - but it is a different sham than in Soviet days. In the long run, the small changes in Uzbek autocracy today mean that Uzbekistan will be far better positioned to make the leap to democracy.
The second implication is that Uzbekistan is not slipping back into Soviet habits. Human rights NGOs, the Western media, and at times even the U.S. government portray Uzbekistan as neo-Soviet or neo-Stalinist. This gives an implicit legitimacy to the Uzbek government's claims that human rights abuses are isolated incidents relating to 'old thinking.' However, changes in police procedure and the new state structure indicates that Uzbekistan is building an autocracy seperate from its Soviet predecessor. This means that Uzbekistan is not slipping into old bad habits - it is constructing new ones.
Clearly, there is more to my thesis than this, but you'll have to read it for yourself to find out. Links to the thesis are provided below -- it should open MS Word on your computer. Despite the fact that I have already turned it in, the thesis is very much a work in progress; I hope to turn at least the first two chapters into a journal article. Thus, any suggestions or comments are welcome at wshingleton@juno.com
Front matter - Title page, dedication, table of contents, glossary of names, and abstract
Figure 1 - Government and Opposition in Uzbekistan
Main Text