FILE: 252N02.HTML

FALL 2005

DR. WILLIAM  SHINGLETON

FORMAT: NEW TIMES ROMAN, 14 FONT, PORTRAIT

ONLINE SAVED IN HTML

THESE NOTES ARE FOR THE WEEK OF AUGUST 30 TO SEPTEMBER 1, 2005

 

FINISH NOTES FROM PREVIOUS WEEK

 

NEW TOPICS

JOB CREATION AND CIRCULAR FLOW

          SHORT CIRCULAR FLOW MODEL

          NEXT REPORT: AUG 31 7:30 AM CHIGAGO TIME

          LATEST REPORT 3.4 PERCENT GROWTH/2ND QUARTER 2005

 

 

PROFIT AS A NECESSARY CONDITION

          ROLE OF THE ENTREPRENEUR

                    NECESSARY RESOURCE/    NORMAL PROFIT

                   CREATES/DESTROYS MARKETS/JOBS/TECHNOLOGY

          LONG RUN PROFITS VS SHORT TERM LOSSES

         

          PROFIT IS ONLY A SMALL PART OF INCOME (ABOUT 10 PCT)

 

 

DEMAND  

          IDENTIFIES QUANTITY DEMANDED AT EACH PRICE

          DEMAND VS QUANTITY DEMANDED

          QUANTITY DEMANDED

                   MUST BE A NUMBER

                   MUST FIRST KNOW THE PRICE

                   LAW OF DEMAND

                   CONSUMER SURPLUS

 

          CHANGES IN DEMAND

                   SUBSTITUTES

                   COMPLEMENTS

                   OTHER FACTORS

         

          SALES ARE UNCERTAIN BEFORE THE MARKET PERIOD

                    SALES ESTIMATION

                   NOT AS EASY AS IT LOOKS:

                   CASE STUDY: BOMBING CLEVELAND

 

 

SUPPLY

          IDENTIFIES QUANTITY SUPPLIED AT EACH PRICE

          SUPPLY VS QUANTITY SUPPLIED

          QUANTITY SUPPLIED

                   MUST BE A NUMBER

                   MUST FIRST KNOW THE PRICE

                   LAW OF SUPPLY

                   PRODUCER SURPLUS

          CHANGES IN SUPPLY

                   NUMBER OF FIRMS

                   COST

 

 

 

LAW OF MARKETS

          DEMAND CURVE

          SUPPLY CURVE

          AT ANY MOMENT IN TIME

          3 KINDS OF PRICES

          DISEQUILIBRIUM PRICES

                   SHORTAGE         QUANTITY DEMANDED MORE THAN QUANTITY SUPPLIED

                   SURPLUS            QUANTITY SUPPLIED MORE THAN QUANTITY DEMANDED

 

                   INVENTORY CHANGES AS SIGNALS

                   NO INTENTIONAL MISTAKES

 

          EQUILIBRIUM PRICE

 

 

EFFECTS OF CHANGES ON MARKETS

          TIME/PLACE IDENTIFY MARKET

          LABEL EACH AXIS WITH MATCHING ITEMS

          START AT EQUILIBRIUM

          EXPLAIN THE LOGIC OF THE CHANGE

          EXPLAIN THE ADJUSTMENT PROCESS

          IDENTIFY THE ENDING EQUILIBRIUM

                  

          DISEQUILIBRIUM PRICES

                   QUANTITY DEMANDED MORE THAN QUANTITY SUPPLIED

                   QUANTITY SUPPLIED MORE THAN QUANTITY DEMANDED

                   CHANGE IN PRICE DOES NOT CHANGE DEMAND

                   CHANGE IN PRICE DOES NOT CHANGE SUPPLY

                   INVENTORIES AS SHOCK ABSORBERS

 

          EQUILIBRIUM PRICE

 

EXAMPLE: MARKET FOR HOME COMPUTERS

          CHANGE IN TECHNOLOGY

 

EXAMPLE: MARKET FOR U.S. CORN EXPORTS

          LOWER INCOMES IN ASIA

 

LAW OF MARKETS: ALFRED MARSHALL 1890

          MARSHALLIAN SCISSORS

          MORE THAN A TOOL: THE FIVE YEAR OLD'S HAMMER

 

LAW OF MARKETS/SUPPLY AND DEMAND/ HOW TO TELL THE STORY

          LABEL EVERYTHING

                   MAKE SURE YOUR LABELS ARE COMPLETE AND CORRECT

          START AND END AT EQUILIBRIUM

                   IDENTIFY STARTING QUANTITY AND PRICE

                   TELL WHY THE EQUILIBRIUM PRICE IS DIFFERENT

          IDENTIFY AND LOGICALLY DEFEND EACH AND EVERY CHANGE

          THE EVENT IN THE QUESTION

                   CAUSES AN UNANTICIPATED CHANGE IN INVENTORIES

                   THERE IS NO NEED TO EXPLAIN THE CAUSE

                   DEVELOP A LOGICAL BASIS TO CHANGE BEHAVIOR

                   CHANGE MUST HAPPEN

                             EVEN IF THE PRICE STAYS THE SAME

                             FOCUS ON MARGINAL CONSUMER/MARGINAL OUTPUT

 

          USING THE EVENT IN THE QUESTION, IDENTIFY

                   A NEW POINT AS PART OF NEW DEMAND/SUPPLY CURVE

                   ONLY ONE CURVE AT EACH MOMENT IN TIME

                   DEMAND VS QUANTITY DEMANDED

                             QUANTITY DEMANDED MUST BE A NUMBER

                   SUPPLY VS QUANTITY SUPPLIED

                             QUANTITY SUPPLIED MUST BE A NUMBER

                             NOTE DISTINCTION BETWEEN PRICE AND COST

 

          PRICING AND OUTPUT DECISIONS

                   ARE MADE BY INDIVIDUAL UNITS (FIRMS)

                   FIRMS SET PRICES THEN WAIT FOR RESULTS

                             BILL GATES DOESN'T GET UP EVERY MORNING

                             AND CHANGE HIS PRICES WHILE HE'S WAITING

                             FOR BREAKFAST

 

                             INVENTORY CHANGES ARE (OFTEN)

                             SIGNALS OF INCORRECT DECISIONS

 

                   SELF-INTEREST (PROFIT) NOT SOCIAL WELFARE

 

          IDENTIFY SURPLUS OR SHORTAGE

          SURPLUS OR SHORTAGE IS SIGNAL TO FIRM

 

          FIRM CHANGES PRICE AND OUTPUT

                   IN ORDER TO IMPROVE PROFIT

                   NOT TO GET TO EQUILIBRIUM

 

          AS PRICE CHANGES

                   CHANGE THE QUANTITY DEMANDED

                             /NOT THE DEMAND CURVE

                   CHANGE THE QUANTITY SUPPLIED

                             /NOT THE SUPPLY CURVE

 

FINAL STATEMENT: RETURN TO EQUILIBRIUM

 

          AT ANY MOMENT IN TIME

                   ONLY ONE DEMAND CURVE IS RELEVANT

                   ONLY ONE SUPPLY CURVE IS RELEVANT

                   QUANTITY DEMANDED IS A NUMBER

                             DETERMINED BY PRICE

                   QUANTITY SUPPLIED IS A NUMBER

                             DETERMINED BY PRICE

                    CONSIDER WHAT WOULD HAPPEN

                             IF THE PRICE STAYED THE SAME

 

          THE EMPHASIS IS ALWAYS ON "WHY?"

          THE EXPLANATION IS THE IMPORTANT PART OF THE ANSWER

          EQUILIBRIUM QUANTITY IS BOTH

                   1.  THE QUANTITY DEMANDED

                   2.  THE QUANTITY SUPPLIED

 

SELF TESTS/CAN YOU IDENTIFY

          SOMETHING THAT WOULD INCREASE DEMAND?

          SOMETHING THAT WOULD DECREASE DEMAND?

          SOMETHING THAT WOULD

                   CHANGE THE QUANTITY DEMANDED

                   BUT WOULD NOT MOVE THE DEMAND CURVE?

          SOMETHING THAT WOULD INCREASE SUPPLY?

          SOMETHING THAT WOULD DECREASE SUPPLY?

          SOMETHING THAT WOULD

                   CHANGE THE QUANTITY SUPPLIED

                   BUT WOULD NOT MOVE THE SUPPLY CURVE?

 

LONG RUN/SHORT RUN: MARSHALL'S CLOCK

 

PRICE VS PRICE EXPECTATION

          CHANGE IN PRICE NEVER MOVES DEMAND OR SUPPLY

          CHANGE IN PRICE EXPECTATION CAN MOVE EITHER ONE

 

SIMULTANEOUS CHANGES IN MARKET CONDITIONS

          THE SUM OF THE PARTS

          ONE KNOWN, ONE UNKNOWN

 

EXAMPLE

          MARKET FOR USED CARS/INCREASE IN WAGE/INCOME

 

 

 

ROLE OF GOVERNMENT AND TAXES            CH 4/ PP 77-90 ONLY

          AVERAGE TAX RATE

          MARGINAL TAX RATE

 

          PROGRESSIVE

          PROPORTIONAL

          REGRESSIVETAXES AND SUPPLY AND DEMAND

          EFFECT ON MARKET

                   TAXES AS A COST

                   TAXES AS INCOME REDUCTION

 

          EFFECT ON OUTPUT, JOBS, PRICES

          TAX RATE

          TAX BASE

          TAX REVENUE

 

 

INCOME TAX

          TAX ON LABOR MARKET

          65,000 PAGES/DEC 2005

 

          EFFECT ON LABOR SUPPLY

                   EFFECT ON NET WAGES

                   EFFECT ON JOBS

                   EFFECT ON OUTPUT

                   EFFECT ON COSTS

                   EFFECT ON PRICES

 

                   TAX RATE

                   TAX BASE

                   TAX REVENUE

 

EFFECT OF TAX CUT

          EFFECT ON TAX REVENUE

          EFFECT ON NET WAGES, OUTPUT, JOBS, PRICES

 

INCOME TAX AND MARGINAL TAX RATE

          EVERY RATE IS A MARGINAL RATE FOR SOMEONE

 

NEXT WEEK

THOSE (IN)FAMOUS NUMBERS I  MEASURES OF INCOME AND OUTPUT           CH 5

          GDP

          NOMINAL GDP

          REAL GDP

          GDP PER CAPITA