FILE: 252N04.HTML

CLASS NOTES FOR ECONOMICS 252/WEEK 4 FALL 2005

DR. WILLIAM SHINGLETON

THIS WEEK IS AN EXAM WEEK

:

FIRST EXAMINATION/THURSDAY

          MATERIAL: 

                   CHAPTERS 1 TO 7

                   NOTES 252.1, 252.2, AND 252.3

          CHAPTER 8 IS NOT ON THIS EXAM

 

          FORMAT

                    TIME LIMIT: 60 MINUTES

                    25 MULTIPLE CHOICE/ 3 POINTS EACH

                    25 POINT ESSAY

 

          CLOSED BOOK AND CLOSED NOTE EXAM

          CALCULATORS ARE PERMITTED.

 

DON’T FORGET TO CHECK THE QUESTION BANKS AND SAMPLE EXAMS ON THE WEBSITE.

 

 

TUESDAY

FINISH MATERIAL FROM LAST WEEK

 

THIS WEEK’S TOPICS

 

          EXCHANGE RATE/2005SEP09 http://www.exchangerate.com/200plus_calculator.html?amount_from=1.00&calc_long_from_id=239&calc_long_to_id=43&Submit=Convert

                   $1.24 PER EURO

                   $1.84 PER BRITISH POUND

                   109.70 YEN PER DOLLAR

                   $0.85 US PER CANADIAN

 

BUSINESS CYCLE

          PATTERNS IN REAL GDP

          EXPANSION/RECOVERY/GROWTH

          EXPANSION SINCE NOVEMBER 2001

          POSSIBLE RECESSION MARCH 2001 TO NOVEMBER 2001

         

 

RECESSION

          TYPES OF

                   STAGFLATION

                    JOBLESS GROWTH

                             FOCUS ON MANUFACTURING JOBS

          46 SINCE 1790

                    WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN

                    DON REGAN: 1982

 

          USUALLY SHORTER TIME THAN EXPANSION

 

LONG RUN GROWTH PATH NOT SMOOTH

 

 

PERSPECTIVES

          STABLE VS UNSTABLE EQUILIBRIUM

 

 

 

CLASSICAL THEORY

          STABLE, SELF CORRECTING SYSTEM

          SAY'S LAW

          PROBLEMS MELT AWAY

          EQUILIBRIUM => FULL EMPLOYMENT

          NO NEED FOR GOVT INTERVENTION

          BRITISH GOLD STANDARD AND 1925 CRISIS

                   CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER,

                   WINSTON CHURCHILL,

                   RETURNED ENGLAND TO GOLD STANDARD

                   GOLD PRICE AND MONEY SUPPLY

          MONEY SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR GOODS

 

 

 

KEYNESIAN THEORY

          CRASH OF 1929 IN UNITED STATES

          MARSHALL'S 2ND BEST STUDENT

                   TOP STUDENT: O.E. NIEMEYER

          IN THE LONG RUN WE ARE ALL DEAD

          EQUILIBRIUM CAN => UNEMPLOYMENT

          UNSTABLE, PROBLEMS CAN GROW

 

                   A PROBLEM OF INFORMATION

                   PRODUCTION TAKES TIME

                   THE FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN

                   LONG RUN UNEMPLOYMENT

                   EFFECTIVE DEMAND

                   INVENTORY OVERHANG

         

                   NEED FOR GOVT INTERVENTION

 

 

MODEL FOR MACRO ECONOMY

 

 

AGGREGATE DEMAND/AGGREGATE SUPPLY

          FRUIT SALAD

 

 

AGGREGATE DEMAND

          PRICE LEVEL, NOT INFLATION RATE

          REAL GDP

          SALES = C + I + G + X - M

 

          EXPLAIN SHAPE OF CURVE

                   REAL BALANCE EFFECT

                   FOREIGN TRADE EFFECT

                   INTEREST RATE EFFECT

 

 

AGGREGATE SUPPLY

          PRICE LEVEL, NOT INFLATION RATE

          REAL GDP

          EXPLAIN SHAPE OF CURVE

                   PROFIT EFFECT

                   COST EFFECT

 

 

AGGREGATE BALANCE (EQUILIBRIUM)

          SUMMARIZE THE WHOLE ECONOMY

          NATURAL RATE OF OUTPUT

          COMPARE TO FULL EMPLOYMENT OUTPUT

 

 

AT WHAT GDP DOES PRODUCTION = SALES?

          STATIC VS DYNAMIC

 

 

CAUSES OF SHIFTS

          AGGREGATE DEMAND

                   CONFIDENCE/EXPECTATIONS

                   POLICY

                   MONETARY POLICY

 

          AGGREGATE SUPPLY

                   COST

                   TAXES/POLICY

                   CONFIDENCE

 

 

 

EFFECTS OF SHIFTS

          INFLATION

          EXPANSION

          RECESSION

 

          MULTIPLE SHIFTS

 

 

POLICIES

          FISCAL

          MONETARY

          SUPPLY-SIDE

          TRADE

 

 

PUT IT ALL TOGETHER/REPEAT ANALYSIS

          IS THERE A “LONG-RUN” AGGREGATE SUPPLY?

 

          EXPLAIN ADJUSTMENTS