| Chapter 9 We rely on heuristics because they're fast and easy May represent evolutionary advantage We have limited and distorted experiences => need to define sample space of all possible events Even in abstract situations it helps to think about as many variables as possible and think of the reasons why they may happen or not. Hard to think in terms of probabilities Transform them into frequencies Use visual aids like tree diagrams and venn diagrams Conjunction of events: A and B have to happen Tend to overestimate its probabilities due to anchoring Disjunction of events: A or B can happen Tend to underestimate it probabilities due to anchoring |
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