| Chapter 3 Lens model: used when want to judge uncertain or abstract characteristic (criterion) Rely on measurable cues Associated with weights that represent the ecological validity of the cue Cue utilization coefficient: weight between the cue and the judgment; represents how people use the cue Can represent judgments by linear equation Weights represent the importance and likelihood of factors Linear relationships seem to represent our subjective experience of the world Statistical predictions are never worse than judge's global predictions People have difficulties attending to 2 or more factors at once: anchor judgment on one cue and adjust as come across other information People are unable to estimate their own cue utilization coefficient accurately, especially when highly experienced People are often overconfident They are unaware of their own biases They become more and more confident when more and more information is given to them Overconfidence is greatest when accuracy near chance level Overconfidence diminishes as accuracy increases to 80%; people tend to be underconfident afterwards May be due to feedback problem Calibration: degree to which confidence matches accuracy Surprise index: percentage of judgments beyond a confidence interval Confidence and accuracy are not correlated Advice: STOP AND CONSIDER REASONS WHY YOUR JUDGMENT MIGHT BE WRONG Decreases confidence and increases accuracy |
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