| Chapter 4 Subadditivity: specific instances are rated as more likely than the general category they are drawn from Specific memory cues retrieve more information than general ones Superadditivity: when specific instances are hard to retrieve from memory, tend to underestimate their likelihood compared to the general category they are drawn from. Recency effect: last thing mentioned may have a big impact on judgment, even if event is said to be atypical; tendency to overgeneralize from specific instances Simulation heuristic: the easier it is to imagine an event, the more we think it is likely to happen Optimistic bias: thinking about positive outcomes first makes us overconfident thinking about negative outcomes first leads to more realistic expectations Imagining very aversive events may provoke denial that it would ever happen even if it is easy to imagine |
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