| Chapter 13 People think and behave in weird ways because they dread uncertainty Superstitions: religious beliefs, athletes... Treat chance events as if involved skills May be because brain is designed to find patterns in the environment All situations are caused by multiple factors so it is easy to find evidence that matches our beliefs because of confirmation and hindsight biases What we fail to consider is that the same factors could be present in other people and it didn't lead them to be in the same situation as we are; we have to look for disconfirming evidence Uncertainty may also undermine the belief that we are superior and invulnerable We have to acknowledge that our reasoning abilities are limited The world may be a much more complicated place than we think; research in physics may indicate that universe is buit on uncertain principles Attempts to explain certainty and predict everything may lead to delusions and unproductive behaviors We are bad at predicting the outcomes of things and the way we will feel in a future situation When making an important decision, don't try to get an overall assessment of how happy you think you will be; instead, systematically assess the important attributes of the situation Thus, we should use probability theory to guide our decision making Use graphics, reframe problems, be aware of biases... |
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