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Japanese PM likely to put off Aug 15 war shrine visit.
By George Nishiyama.
Fri Aug 12, 5:01 AM ET
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has a reputation for taking risks, but analysts say it's unlikely that he will visit a Tokyo shrine for war dead on Monday's anniversary of Japan's surrender in World War Two for fear of dividing voters ahead of next month's general election.
Still, analysts also note the unpredictable prime minister has proved their forecasts wrong before.
An August 15 visit to Yasukuni shrine, seen by critics as a symbol of Japan's past militarism, would be sure to outrage China and South Korea, both victims of Japanese military aggression.
It could also split voters ahead of the September 11 election, which Koizumi wants to make a referendum on plans to privatize the postal system, the cornerstone of his reform program.
"Koizumi is afraid of any negative impact on the election," said political commentator Minoru Morita. "So I don't think he'll go."
Since taking office in 2001, Koizumi has made annual pilgrimages to Yasukuni, where convicted war criminals including wartime Prime Minister Hideki Tojo are honored along with Japan's 2.5 million war dead. He has yet, however, to keep a four-year-old pledge to do so on the emotive August 15 date.
Speculation is simmering that he may go this year to woo conservative voters, but pundits and politicians say he's more likely to calculate that staying away is best.
Koizumi called a snap poll on Monday after rebels in his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) joined the opposition to defeat bills to privatize the mammoth Japan Post, which includes the world's biggest deposit-taking institution and has some $3 trillion in assets.
"It would be like pouring cold water on our efforts to seek a majority," Takenori Kanzaki, head of the LDP's ruling coalition partner, the New Komeito, said on Friday.
DIVIDED OPINION:
Surveys published this week showed voter support for Koizumi and his ruling party rose after his decision to call the election.
Opinion polls also show the public is divided on whether he should keep visiting the Shinto shrine, seen by some as a solemn memorial to those who died for their country.
Forty-six percent of respondents to a poll by public broadcaster NHK released on Friday said Koizumi should halt the Yasukuni visits, while 41 percent thought he should go.
Koizumi, who says he visits the shrine not to glorify war but to pray for peace, has not gone this year and reiterated on Friday that he would make an "appropriate" decision on when to do so.
A visit on August 15 would likely be the final nail in the coffin of Japan's already faltering bid for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council, which China and South Korea oppose.
The head of the main opposition Democratic Party, Katsuya Okada, who has said he would not go to Yasukuni, stressed the need for Japan to have good ties with the rest of Asia.
"It is important above all for us to deepen our mutual relations of trust with other countries, beginning with our neighbors," Okada said in a statement after visiting a tomb of the unknown soldier, a secular memorial, in Tokyo.
Koizumi could, however, decide to visit Yasukuni on the 60th anniversary of Japan's surrender to appeal to the anti-Chinese sentiment growing among some Japanese.
"He could send a message that Japan won't bow to foreign pressure, which would play well with the voters," said political analyst Harumi Arima.
Koizumi is widely thought to have made his 2001 pledge to visit Yasukuni to win the backing of a powerful group of veterans and relatives of war dead for his bid to become prime minister.
At least two cabinet ministers said on Friday they would visit the shrine on August 15.
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