STEPHEN WALKER'S MONARO PREDICTION

The Monaro is a large car, by Australian standards, a largish car by American standards. It's based on the current Holden Commodore, itself based on the German car which provided the basis for the Cadillac Catera. Although the Commodore is a bigger car than Catera.

In the Australian market, the Commodore comes as a sedan, a wagon, a utility (pickup) and now the 2 door Monaro. The new Monaro is available in two versions, the "CV6" (powered by a V6 supercharged motor, coupled to a 4 speed automatic transmission) and the "CV8" (powered by a V8 with a choice of 6 speed manual or 4 speed automatic transmission). Each model is well equipped.

By expanding the model line-up, the opportunity of expanding the market presents itself. Is this what motivates Holden? It's my opinion, by pricing the car at over 150% of the price of Australia's best selling car, the Holden Commodore Executive, any expansion of the market will be minimal at best.... overly optimistic at worst. So why make a new model at such a high price if it's not to expand Holden's sales? Undoubtably, the car is attractive, so it's a safe bet it will sell. But will it sell in the numbers that make the investment for design and tooling and subsequent production a gamble or a sound business decision? My view is that the Australian market is not big enough for a volume selling large coupe. But there's the possibility of exporting the car to make it a viable proposition. Now the car's size will dictate that the Asian and European markets will see the car as being too large for it's survival as a volume-selling model. However, the Middle East is an important market for Holden, who is meeting great success with the Lumina (Commodore in Australia) and it's flagship models, the Statesman/Caprice models. Fact is, that Holden export more Statesman/Caprice models than the local Australian market absorbs. So it's quite reasonable to assume Holden will be keen to export this new model Monaro.
Everyone knows that North America is the world's largest car market. Could it be that this car is heading that way? It's not such a strange suggestion when all facts are taking into account. Let's look at these factors:

• GM announced in September 2001 that the plant in Quebec which builds the Camaro/Firebird models will close in September 2002.
• Is the world's largest auto maker willing to just walk away from this market segment?
• The Monaro is similarly sized to the modern day pony cars which have been given notice of their final year.
• Holden is well under way with some major investments in plant upgrades.
• Recent labour negotiations seen Holden meekly ensure their workers remain satisfied, as if to suggest that Holden doesn't want any problems during the next few years. This in itself suggests there's a plan which demands industrial peace.
• The Australian dollar vs. the American dollar represents a favourable exchange rate.
• GM needs the Australian arm to remain successful, to ensure it (GM) remains competitive and strong in Australia.