The Hanish Scenario: The "First-Occupy-and-then-Negotiate" Principle

by Ayalew Kassahun
October 22, 1998

It is to be recalled that the Eritrean government had committed an act of aggression in 1995 against Yemen and occupied the Red Sea islands of Hanish, thus compromising the country's territorial integrity. The aggression resulted in great loss of life and destruction of property. After the occupation, both Eritrea and Yemen submitted to international arbitration their rival claims to sovereignty over the Hanish archipelago. The Permanent Court of Arbitration made its judgement public recently that the group of Islands that had been invaded and occupied by the expansionist regime of Eritrea were under the sovereignty of Yemen.

That ruling sends a clear message to the Eritrean leadership that it is not possible to prosper by annexing foreign territory through force of arms. Moreover, the ruling proved to the international community, beyond any shadow of doubt, that the Eritrean government had expanded and taken the land that did not belong to it by following the "first-occupy-and-then-negotiate" principle.

The fact that the international community did not respond forcefully to the invasion of the Hanish Islands had clearly encouraged the Asmara government and, in fact, given the regime the green light, to engage in subsequent acts of aggression and occupation. There is ample evidence of this behaviour in Eritrea's invasion of Djibouti and later Ethiopia in the hope of realising its dreams. Accordingly, facing little protest from the international community for invading and occupying the Hanish Islands, the Asmara government drew its own map and claimed a 486 sq.km. of land from Djibouti before invading it in 1996.

Encouraged by the fact that it met very little resistance to its aggression after aggression in violation of the charters of the OAU and the UN and in contravention of the provisions of international law, the Asmara regime, once again, drew its own map and invaded Badme and parts of Shiraro - areas which had never been administered by Eritrea for a single day. The aggression resulted in the displacement of more than 200,000 Ethiopians from their homes. What is more, this gave rise to the expulsion from Eritrea of over 25,000 Ethiopians who were beaten up and robbed of their possessions. Despite the inhuman acts perpetrated by the Eritrean leadership, Ethiopia has been making relentless efforts to end the war of aggression without further loss of life by accepting the US-Rwanda peace plan that had recommended the withdrawal of the Eritrean troops from the area they had occupied by force and called for the restoration of the Ethiopian administration in the area to its status prior to May 12, 1998. This was, however, ridiculed and rejected by the Eritrean leadership as a "quick-fix and bulldozing" typical of the United States Administration and called for round-table negotiations before the act of aggression was nullified. Asmara's position presents with a dangerous scenario which should be rejected and undone altogether.

This being the act of aggression committed against Ethiopia, the verdict by the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the Hanish Islands provides ample testimony to the recklessness of the Asmara leadership that it involves itself in acts of aggression without having a just cause.

The fact that the Hanish Islands constitute one of the world's major shipping lanes, the security of the area is of vital importance to the Middle East, Asia, Europe and Egypt. The war between Yemen and Eritrea over the Hanish archipelago could have, therefore, caused a threat to the security of trade and traffic along the Red Sea for those countries. But it is a blessing in disguise that the dispute is resolved through international arbitration - a dispute that could have had an adverse effect on all beneficiaries of the seaway. Contrary to the facts of the matter in the Hanish Islands, Badme is a small area of land that doesn't directly affect the vital interests of the international community in the event of war. The international community has not, therefore, discharged its responsibility satisfactorily by identifying aggression as aggression. The war imposed on Ethiopia remains unresolved, the blatant aggression has yet to receive an attention it merits from the international community. The government and peoples of Ethiopia will have to end the crisis through all means available to them under international law, hopefully, without further loss of life and destruction. The bottom line for Ethiopia is that Eritrea's aggression has to be undone first in order to resolve all disputes and restore good neighbourly relations between the peoples of Ethiopia and Eritrea. Negotiation while Ethiopian territory remains under the occupation of the aggressor is unacceptable.



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