Overcoming Crises

That Ethiopia is facing multiple crises is one of the few facts that the various contesting parties in Ethiopia agree on. How do we get through these crises?

"In the middle year of his life, Dante was lost in a dangerous forest. And he was threatened there by three animals; a lion, a leopard and a wolf (symbolizing pride, desire, and fear). Then Virgil, the personification of poetic insight, appeared and conducted him through the labyrinth of hell"

- Joseph Campbell, The Power of Myth; (referencing Dante's Inferno)

The poet Virgil served to raise the consciousness of Dante, and this enbled Dante to overcome his personal crisis. Similarly, the potential for human organizations to confront and solve problems is dependent on the societal level of consciousness.

This idea is fundamental to Marxist theory (class consciousness). The ruling party in Ethiopia today is an adherent of this theory and owes its success, in part, to this ideology. But the situation in Ethiopia today, and the world, is far different from that of 1974 or 1991.

The situation in Ethiopia is, on the surface, quite simple. The ruling party lost an election and has refused to transfer power to the opposition. But why has the situation developed in this way? And why is it so hard to remove the ruling party from power?

The standard answer can be simplified as "the ruling party is bad, it uses force to remain in power." By implication the opposition is "good." This may or may not be true, but an assertion of moral virtue is of little help in finding solutions to the crisis.

Ethiopian society is a typical self-organizing entity. The TPLF/EPRDF, OLF, and Kinijit are all products of Ethiopian society. Why isn't Ethiopian society producing groups that are more cooperative and trusting of each other?

This is a difficult topic and requires new analysis techniques and new ideas. Exploring this topic may help Ethiopia along the path of democratization - not just for resolving the May 2005 election crisis, but for all the difficult problems that will come in the future.

New Ideas

I believe that the single most important reason why prosperity spread, and why it continues to spread, is the transmission of technologies and the ideas underlying them.

- Jeffrey Sachs, The End of Poverty

In the 1960s and 1970s, leftist political theory was transmitted to Ethiopia; the students and intellectuals rapidly assimilated these ideas and instigated an era of great social change.

But what ideas are "in-fashion" now? Certainly ethnic nationalism, particularly among Oromo students, and the idea of liberal democracy among the opposition. A trained PhD. social scientist such as Birhanu Nega is obviously capable of bringing in new ideas to the political elite.

I am not a social scientist, however, I believe those of us living in the West can do our little bit in the transmission of ideas and raising of consciousness (our own first). Several ideas seem to me to have practical use:

1. Critical Theory (Theory of Communicative Action)
2. Evolutionary Psychology
3. Nationalism and Ethnicity
4. Democratization Theory

A few notes on the above topics are raised below. (Warning - this is amateur stuff: not the product of a trained social scientist. Nevertheless, these ideas don't belong to anyone - as Jeffrey Sachs notes - anyone can take them and use them)

Critical Theory and the Theory of Communicative Action

Jurgen Habermas' theories are really more applicable to Modern or Post-modern societies. Yet, as with Marxism, it still has a lot to say for countries like Ethiopia. A major idea is to replace the Marxist technique of characterizing societies based on labor and means of production with communication and use of reason.

Habermas compares critical theory to psychoanalysis. External symptoms of pathology are caused by repressed thoughts, conflicting desires, etc. The psychoanalyst helps to uncover the unconscious processes that are the cause of psychological problems. Similarly critical theory provides self-reflection and rational analysis to identify the underlying (perhaps hidden or unclear) causes of social crises.

"I am of the opinion that social pathologies can be understood as forms of manifestation of systematically distorted communication …." - Habermas (1986) "Only in a society in which a general notion of reason can be invoked can we hope to sustain a good society. Without an appeal to general standards of truth and goodness, social life gravitates toward an endless power struggle among antagonistic interest groups." - S. Seidman, Habermas Reader

The focus on communication seems to be appropriate. For example suppose all political actors in Ethiopia share the same principles. Why then is there conflict? And if we don't share the same principles, why not? What is preventing greater, sustained cooperation?

It may be the case that our level/type of communication is below that required to sustain a modern democratic society.

A study of how Ethiopian groups communicate (or mis-communicate) may prove useful. What are their primary audiences, are they successful in persuasion, are they successful in motivating action, what signals (perhaps unintended) do they send to others, are the communication techniques conducive to reaching consensus? In short, are we engaged in communicative action or limiting ourselves to unproductive forms of communication?

Habermas Links:

Adam Michnik, one of the leaders of Solidarity in Poland, had studied Habermas' work while in jail. A large number of Hungarian dissidents were also familiar with it. "Habermas' book 'The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere' played an extremely important political role in Hungary," explains Anna Wessely, a professor of sociology at the Eotvos University in Budapest. "It helped to conceptualize the role of the society against the state." - Mitchell Stephens THE THEOLOGIAN OF TALK: JURGEN HABERMAS Los Angeles Times Magazine October 23, 1994

- Habermasian Reflections A Habermas Blog

- Stefan Szczelkun Summary of the Theory of Communicative Action A summary of Vol.1, Reason and the Rationalisation of Society

- Critical Theory Resources

- Michael S. H. Heng & Aldo de Moor From Habermas's communicative theory to practice on the internet Information Systems Journal, Volume 13 Page 331 - October 2003

- Roger Bolton HABERMAS’S THEORY OF COMMUNICATIVE ACTION AND THE THEORY OF SOCIAL CAPITAL Williams College (2005)

Evolutionary Psychology

The fundamental evolutionary difficulty for humans is to solve inherently social puzzles as to how to interact with others... The task of the philosopher and social scientist is to understand the degree to which certain predilections are hard-wired into human psychology, and thereby to determine what set of institutions and incentives are necessary to restrain, modify, or channel these predilections into pro-social behavior and away from anti-social behavior. - Todd Zywicki Evolutionary Psychology and the Social Sciences Law and Economics Working Paper No. 00-35, October 2000

One of the "hard-wired predilections" is groupism. Humans have a great affinity to form groups and to develop strong group identity. But this could be negative if group identities conflict or groups split into subgroups and have no way of relating productively to each other. Thus political factionalism is to be expected, however we need institutions and cultural techniques to moderate factional group conflict.

But humans are also genetically disposed to cooperation. In fact the evolutionary stable solution for human interaction (modeled via game theory) is mutual cooperation. Ethiopian society may benefit from a clear understanding about the way cooperation arises and find practial ways to promote wide cooperation - especially amongst the political elite.

Evolutionary psychology has had a negative image because people have misused it to justify right-wing (often racist) ideologies. S. Kanazawa, who wrote a recent paper correlating IQ with development is an example.

The late scientist, Stephen Jay Gould, was a prominent critic; and provides good arguments to place it in context Darwinian Fundamentalism NYT review of books, 1997.. Also see Gould's website: Evolutionary Psychology: An Exchange (debates between scientists).

Human behavior is driven by a set of universal reasoning circuits that were designed by natural selection to solve adaptive problems faced by our hunter-gatherer ancestors... Our adaptations also include, however, some darker ultimate motives: intergroup competition for dominance, boundary definition, and fear of social exclusion. People in all cultures feel that they are members of a group (a band, tribe, clan, or nation) and feel animosity toward other groups. These realities can foster a hostility to, and even hatred of, other groups that often tears society apart. Human minds are compelled to define the limits of the tribe. Knowing who is kin, knowing who is in our social group, has a deep importance to species like ours. We construct this knowledge by categorizing others as “us” or “them.” We tend to be biased toward “us” and label “them”–those with whom “we” share the fewest genes and least culture–as enemies. We have an evolved capacity to see our group as superior to all others and even to be reluctant to recognize members of other groups as deserving of equal respect. - James E. Waller Our Ancestral Shadow: Hate and Human Nature in Evolutionary Psychology Whitworth College, 2004

Internet FAQ: - Edward Hagen The Evolutionary Psychology FAQ Institute for Theoretical Biology in Berlin

Book: - Matt Ridley The Origins of Virtue: Human Instincts and the Evolution of Cooperation (1996)

Nationalism and Ethnicity

The world today contains about 10,000 ethnic groups (nations) but less than 200 states. Why?

Nobody knows. No one has managed to create a neat theoretical framework for ethnicity and identity that explains the existing pattern of states in the world and is consistent with the fact that most people live in multiethnic states.

What are the major theories of nationalism? There is Renan (individual will), Ernest Gellner (transition from agraria to modernity) , Barth (Importance of boundaries), Benedict Anderson (imagined communities).. etc. According to Gershoni and Jankowski (1997) "In the past two decades, an explosion of new theoretical writing on the subject has vastly expanded the analytical framework in which nationalism is considered." They summarize recent theoretical developments by stating:

More than anything else, recent work has disaggregated nationalism. Concepts such as a nationalist "psyche" or "mind" have been dismissed as essentialist reifications that distort the complexities of history. Quite different causal tracks underlying te emergence and spread of specific nationalisms have been delineated; the presence of numerous and shifting bases for individual nationalisms have been identified. The pretensions of nationalists themselves to speak on behalf of the nation are no longer taken at face value, as such factors as ethnicity, regional loyalty, class, gender, religion, and subculture are acknowledged to have produced competing and sometimes drastically different concepts of nationalism within the body of a single "nation". Contingency, multiplicity, and fluidity are the principles underlying contemporary scholarship on nationalism.

How have these recent developments informed Ethiopian ethnic politics? Are we absorbing the new ideas or still 100 years behind? Have Ethiopian political leaders mastered these theories and applied the most appropriate ones to Ethiopia? Are liberation fronts fully conscious of the paths they have chosen and the existence of other paths?

According to leftist theory (Stalin) "A nation is a historically constituted, stable community of people, formed on the basis of a common language, territory, economic life, and psychological make-up manifested in a common culture." - J.V. Stalin Marxism and the National Question (1913)

According to the Ethiopian consititution (Article 39) "A nation, nationality or people, is a group of people, who have or share a large measure of a common culture or similar customs, mutual intelligibility of language, belief in a common or related identities, a common psychological make-up, and who inhabit an identifiable, predominantly contiguous territory." - The Constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. December 8, 1994

According to Stalin, a nation must have all five characteristics that he listed in his definition in order to be nation. If they lack even one of the five then they are not a nation. By this standard, Stalin would probably deny that the Oromo or Amhara are a nation.

Georg Haneke, a scientist who has done fieldwork in Oromo areas of Ethiopia applied a similar checklist and concluded that things were more complicated than commonly portrayed.

None of the criteria of being an Oromo, which were mentioned above, can on its own explain Oromo identity. But that is not a specific problem of being Oromo. Nearly everywhere at any time we may face such problems, either here in Germany or in Europe, Africa or Oromiya. In spite of these problems, the model of a centralised nation-state seems the only strong option for any movement or liberation front. In order to reach that aim, they need simple and clear strategies, and it does not matter whether they ignore parts of their own history or cultural differences or similarities. One of the main results of my research in 1995/96 is that in southern Oromiya, an Oromo consciousness and history is created. When I came to that area for the first time in 1991 and I asked the people around Moyale who they were, they answered me 'I am a Gabbra' or 'I am a Boran', no one answered 'I am an Oromo'. In 1991 I also asked them who and where the Oromo were. The answer was very clear given by all people in that area: ' the Oromo are living somewhere in the north; they speak a strange dialect or even another language. - Georg Haneke, The Multidimensionality of Oromo Identity in Imagined Differences: Hatred and the Construction of Identity Gunther Schlee, 2005

Our understanding of Ethiopian nationalism and ethnic nationalism would greatly benefit from a thorough comparative study of all ethnic nationalisms in Ethiopia. How does Sidama nationalism compare to Konso nationalism. How is Oromo nationalism similar to Harari nationalism, or Hadiya, Afar, or Welaita nationalism. Why is ethnic nationalism weak among some ethnicities but stronger in others. Why is Oromia the only region where the politics of independence ("liberation from colonial Abyssinian rule") the dominant theme in politics?

What is the theoretical reason to keep the ethnic nations in Ethiopia in one state? Why not break it up into 9-15 large nations? Why not go further and create about 80 states in Ethiopia so that each "nation", "nationality", and "people" (including minorities within Oromia) have their own state?

Assimilation

France is regarded as a good example of a nation-state. French people = French state. But how did this come about? What happened to the other nations within France - Brettons, Provence, Catalan, etc.... In 1789 50% of the French people didn't speak French at all, and only 12 to 13% spoke it "fairly"

France is a state not because the French constitute a nation, but rather the French state is the outcome of dynastic ambitions, of circumstances, of lucky wars, and of administrative and diplomatic skills. - Elie Kedourie, "Nationalism and Self Determination" in Oxford Reader: Nationalism (1994)

According to him, to belong to a nation is a subjective act which always has to be repeated, as it is not assured by objective criteria. A nation-state is not composed of a single homogeneous ethnic group (a community), but of a variety of individuals willing to live together. Ernest Renan's non-essentialist definition, which forms the basis of the French Republic, is diametrically opposed to the German ethnic conception of a nation, first formulated by Fichte. The German conception is usually qualified in France as an "exclusive" view of nationality, as it includes only the members of the corresponding ethnic group, while the Republican conception thinks itself as universalist, following the Enlightenment's ideals officialized by the 1789 Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen. - Wikipedia, French People Ernest Renan's "What is a Nation?" (1882)

Which model are the ethnic liberation fronts advocating? Why have the chosen that particular model? Is it the most appropriate in view of universal human principles?

Humanism

Here is a definition of humanism from Wikipiedia:

Humanism is a broad category of active ethical philosophies that affirm the dignity and worth of all people, based on the ability to determine right and wrong by appeal to universal human qualities- particularly rationality, common history, experience, and belief. . - Wikipedia, Humanism

Humanism is often interpreted to mean "non-religious", "agnostic", or even "atheist", but that is not the meaning used here. A Humanist conception of ethnicity would place primary emphasis on the human traits we have in common. By looking for commonalities, ethnicity becomes a positive attribute that celebrates the diversity of human achievement.

It seems that we could benefit by raising our consciousness about the identity forming processes and competing nationalisms in Ethiopia. Theory, history and research results from other countries indicate that these identities are created; not pre-existing (dont pre-date the modern era). This is not to deny the right and benefits of self-expression in ones own language and culture. It seems however, that if we are more conscious of the process - if we expand our horizons and gain perspective it might help us undertake these projects in a more rational and humanistic way.

There is a real difference between the man who, on behalf of his tribe, strives to maintain its traditional integrity and autonomy, and the man who invokes tribal ideology in order to maintain a power position; not in the tribal area, but in the modern capital city, and whose ultimate aim is to undermine and exploit the supposed tribesmen. The fact that it works, [...] is not proof that 'tribes' or tribalism' exist in the objective sense. If anything, it is a mark of 'false consciousness' on the part of the supposed tribesmen who subscribe to an ideology that is inconsistent with the material base and therefore unwittingly respond to the call for their own exploitation. - Majefe (1971:259), quoted in: Ethnicity and Power in Ethiopia Sarah Vaugh, PhD Dissertation, University of Edinburgh, 2003

Democratisation Theory

Note: this topic will be dealt with only briefly here, with reference to game theory, and collective action problems.

Collective Action Problems:

Collective action problems characterize situations in which a group would benefit from cooperation, but the lack of individual incentives to engage in the actions necessary to achieve this cooperation prevents the goal from being attained. - Election Fraud, Collective Action Problems, and the Second Wave Post-Communist Electoral Revolutions Joshua A Tucker, Princeton University (2005)

- Book Review: The Rebel's Dilemma By Mark Irving Lichbach. Ann Arbor, Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 1995

Game Theory in Social Conflict/Democratic Transitions: -

- Online Book: Political Origins of Democracy and Dictatorship Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, (2003) "This path-breaking book is among the most ambitious, innovative, sweeping, and rigorous scholarly efforts in comparative political economy and political development. It offers a broad, substantial new account of the creation and consolidation of democracy. Why is the franchise extended? How do elites make reform believable and avoid expropriation? Why do revolutions nevertheless occur? Why do new democracies sometimes collapse into coups and repression? When is repression abandoned? Backed by a unified analytic model, historical insight, and extensive statistical analysis, the authors' case is compelling." James E. Alt, Frank G. Thomson Professor of Government, Harvard University

• Game Theory.net
  
• Transitions to Democratic Constitutions in Ethnic Conflicts: A Game-Theoretic Analysis T. Nyhamar (1997), in Peace and Conflict Studies George Mason University
  
• Liberal Democracy as an “Aborted” Communist Revolution Cabrales, Calv´o-Armengol, and Wantchekon 2006. (posiitve role of communist parties?)
  
• The Nested Game of Democratization by Elections A. Schedler (2002)
  
• The Transition from Authoritarian Rule: A Game Theoretic Approach D. Sutter (2000)
  
• Game Theory and Democratic Transitions: Modeling and Theoretical Re-considerations of Przeworski's Democracy and the MarketT. Ahn and P. Loveless, Indiana University
  
• Where are the papers by Ethiopian Social Scientists? Where are the Ethiopian case studies and applied research?

- Adam Przeworski: Capitalism, Democracy and Science Interview with Adam Przeworski, New York University (2003)