George W. Bush, John McCain and Elizabeth Dole are the only Republican candidates who have a chance of winning the 2000 U.S. presidential election. Why? Because they're perceived as moderates, and that's what represents the country today.
Why should Republicans vote for them? Because we want to win. Conservatives are tired of being demonized in the press, and current GOP leaders have done nothing to voice our concerns over issues and to prevent the Democrats from making us out to be the ultimate evil. In the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections the Republican candidate got 37% and 41% of the national vote, and 1998 was embarrassing in how little we picked up in the House and Senate during an off-year election.
Social conservatives (Dan Quayle, Gary Bauer, Steve Forbes, Lamar Alexander, Alan Keyes, Pat Buchanan, Bob Smith) don't get this, and won't until the primaries next the fall of 2000. These candidates are the most active a year in advance, ready to voice their opinion at any function and on any and every talk show. What do they hope to accomplish? Shaping the debate on the issues. However, this can only damage the moderates, because the social conservatives will add fuel to the Democrats' fire, all of which will be shone brightly in the press.
If you don't beleive me, listen to a former president. From CNN's AllPolitics:
Americans don't elect presidents based on issues, either. We elect presidents based on how they make us feel as citizens. 40 percent of Americans are Democrats, 40 percent consider themselves Republicans, and the 20 percent in between elect the leader of the free world. Of course, a candidate such as Ross Perot comes along once in a lifetime and affects an election (1999 for example) but even then it doesn't change who would be victorious.
According to a new CNN/USA Today poll released this week, 56 percent of voters say they would vote for Bush if the election were held today, while Gore garnered only 40 percent. When asked to choose who is more likely to be a strong and decisive leader, 59 percent pick Bush and only 30 percent pick Gore. Who is more inspiring? 54 percent say Bush; 29 percent say Gore. Yet 74 percent say they do not know enough about Bush to know whether he would make a good president, while 24 percent say they do know enough. Gore does better in a hypothetical race against Elizabeth Dole, but still loses to her by a 51 percent-44 percent margin.
Another reason a perceived moderate needs to represent the party for 2000 is in how the country portrays Republicans. For the question of who "cares about the needs of people like you," Bush and Gore tied at 44 percent. Can you imagine if the question were asked of a social conservative, considered "extreme right-wing" by too many voters? Gore would probably have at least 60 percent in that category.
Here's hoping that in the next year we can forget controversial subjects that lead nowhere (i.e. abortion) and focus on issues that matter most to Americans: education, social security, keeping a strong economy and crime. Having good character is nice, but if you can inspire those uninterested Americans to feel good about themselves, you win.
Former President Gerald Ford said Monday
a Republican will not win the White House
in the year 2000 if the party is too closely
aligned with extreme conservatives. At a
speech at the National Press Club, Ford said
Republicans "won't win the presidency if we
rely on the extreme right-wing for our
candidate and our policy. ... For us to repeat
again a campaign where we're way over on
the right side would be a waste of time and
money."
The only thing every candidate can agree on is that President Clinton is prime to be attacked, with his current problems in Kosovo (not much of a victory and we'll have troops there for at least a decade) and with the Chinese spying story, both of which have contributed to his lowest poll numbers in four years. However, attacking Clinton is not going to get you elected. His legacy may hurt Gore some now, but when the media decides that Al is their man they will pander to his every issue and make sure no voter relates the two men's policies and scandals.
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