How Will The BA Fare In The Next General Elections?



(Part Four In Our Series On The Coming General Elections)

This is the fourth part in our series on the General Elections where we will continue to look at what will be required for the Alternative Parties to knock the Barisan Nasional out of office and form the next government.

The Chinese Factor

The government knows that the Malays are badly divided over the Anwar issue. It is estimated that more than half the Malays have turned their backs on the government. This was almost confirmed by Mahathir when he said that the Malays are more emotional while the Chinese more pragmatic. Mahathir, therefore, has to now work on the Chinese voters.

But how crucial are the Chinese votes? Well, crucial enough to determine whether Barisan Nasional will be forming the next government by the end of this month. And how, therefore, to win over the Chinese?

Mahathir made a trip to China to show the Malaysian Chinese he is their friend, not realising that to most Malaysian Chinese, China is as foreign as Africa. This is Mahathir’s first mistake in handling the Chinese. He thought they are still loyal to China and that his gesture would woo them. Many Malaysian Chinese could not care two hoots, or even felt insulted that Mahathir would regard them as disloyal enough to still owe allegiance to China when they have been Malaysians for three generations or more.

Mahathir’s second mistake was rejecting the Chinese’s 17 election demands in a most pompous manner, and he warned the Chinese he would not bow to pressure. Then he was forced to send MCA and Gerakan crawling to meet the Chinese (who preferred to use the term "requests" to downplay the effects of the 17 demands) when he realised he could not ignore the Chinese or brush them aside, unless he wants to lose the elections.

In 1969, Mahathir accused Tunku Rahman for being "soft" to the Chinese and for allowing the Malays to be "bullied" by the Chinese. Today Mahathir has to eat his words and walk the same route as Tunku. This must be extremely humiliating to Mahathir and he must be biting his lips hard to prevent himself from cursing the Chinese.

The irony of the whole thing is, the Alternative Parties "Agenda For Change" has addressed all these 17 points plus more. It appears like the Chinese have "borrowed" a copy of the Alternative Parties "Agenda For Change" in drawing up the 17 Election Demands. But they did not - it was just coincidental. And it just goes to prove that the Alternative Parties always had the same issues in mind all along. Great minds think alike as they always say.

This is one up for the Alternative Parties. If the government rejects the Elections Demands it would antagonize the Chinese voters. If they bow to these demands then, in the same breath, they would be admitting that the Alternative Parties were right all along. Barisan Nasional is now sandwiched between a rock and a hard place or, as the Malay proverb goes, "Telan mati emak, ludah mati Bapa". Hard luck for the ruling party.

But this still does not yet win over the Chinese voters. There is still the issue of May 13 which the government is so scared of they are talking about making it a crime to even mention the incident. If this is not the action of someone so terrified of the truth I don’t know what is.

The government is trying to threaten the Chinese that there is a danger of racial problems if they vote for the Alternative Parties. This is downright blackmail. The government is literally putting a gun to the Chinese voters’ heads. The Alternative Parties, however, are telling the Chinese the truth about May 13 - not that they do now know what the truth is, but they just do not want to talk about it in case they rub someone the wrong way.

But the younger voters who were born AFTER May 13 have no qualms talking about it. They know what the truth is and they are prepared to discuss it. They know May 13 was all about an internal power struggle in UMNO using the Chinese as the scapegoat for getting rid of Tunku Rahman. The fact that the Chinese are prepared to stand beside their Malay and Indian comrades to face the brutality of the police shows the Chinese are not easily cowed by threats. Today the Chinese stand up for the Malays and vice versa. They know they Malay comrades will not turn on them as they all face a common enemy – a repressive government - and their enemy is not each other.

The more threats the government throws at the Chinese the more the Chinese will despise the government. UMNO’s strategy of going round the villages telling the Malays that keADILan and PAS have allowed the non-Muslims to defile the National Mosque on September 19 has backfired miserably. It has shown the Chinese the hypocrisy of the UMNO leaders.

Now Mahathir goes down on his hands and knees begging the Chinese to help the Malay businessmen in trouble. Mahathir is so scared that the Chinese will feel that the government is pressuring them that he makes sure they realise he is begging and not forcing. Mahathir is even prepared to embarrass his partner-in-crime, Daim, but announcing a change in plan on the bank mergers.

The Chinese voters can be most unpredictable and no one really knows which way the would vote. Unlike the Malays, the Chinese are not too open about their political sympathy and would rather not reveal whom they support.

In the 1986 and 1990 General Elections, more than 60% of the Chinese voted for the opposition. In the 1995 elections they swung back to the government. The Chinese, who make up 26% of the population, have a majority in 23% of the seats. So their support is very crucial.

The Chinese have won a moral victory. The government is scared of them. But the government only backs down when they have been pushed into a corner. The Chinese know that if the government had the upper hand they would not give in. In fact, the government might even arrest all the dissenters under ISA. But a moral victory alone is not enough. They also need a political victory. And to get this they have to thrown their lot behind the Alternative Parties.

This is where the Alternative Parties will gain.

Raja Petra Kamarudin