Intriguing times ahead
by Raja Petra Kamarudin

What has the 10th general elections achieved? Well, for one thing, the opposition has changed hands - from the Chinese to the Malays - for the first time in the history of this nation. In the past, whenever one speaks of the opposition, one always means the Chinese.

This is not surprising seeing that the bastion of the opposition has always been the urban areas or towns, which is where the majority of the non-Malays live. Umno has always reigned supreme in the rural areas which prompted one ex-deputy prime minister to say that, if Umnu wishes to retain its rule, it has to go back to the kampongs, the place where Umno has its power base and where all the Malays live.

Today, it was the kampong people who rejected Umno, whereas the urbanites voted for the government instead.

It is estimated that 70 per cent of the Malays voted for the opposition this time around. Umno makes no bones about this when Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad called the Malays an emotional lot and praised the Chinese as being more pragmatic (read: they would vote for the government). You could see Mahathir openly wooing the Chinese with his China visit and the return visit of the Chinese leader in the run-up to the elections.

But did the Chinese really support the government and did they vote for Barisan Nasional out of love for the party? Many Chinese I spoke to said, "No!" Maybe some of them did vote BN, but they did so out of fear that the government would instigate racial riots if they lose their two-thirds majority, just like they did 30 years ago in 1969.

The Chinese have a valid reason for believing so. In the two weeks of campaigning, Mahathir constantly reminded them of this "threat" that it left many older Chinese, who still remember the ravishes of May 13, extremely paranoid. Newspaper advertisements were full of these warnings and no speech was complete without a mention from Mahathir of the "threat of riots". The Chinese must have had sleepless nights and most would be glad if there were no elections at all.

The other "threat" was, of course, PAS. I wonder how these Umno Muslims can live with themselves after running down Islam and convincing the Chinese that the only way to reject Islam was to reject PAS - meaning the Barisan Alternatif. It looks like Umno has turned out to be Islam’s biggest enemy and their mission in life seems to be to turn the non-Muslims against Islam.

Of course, there was nothing really to fear from PAS, but the government-controlled media played up the "no pork, no liquor" issue that even Chinese who did not eat pork or drink felt threatened. Many were not aware that pork and liquor, not to mention places of worship of other religions as well as Chinese and Tamil schools, are allowed in PAS-led Kelantan.

Umno embarked on a very successful campaign of lies and the non-Malays/non-Muslims fell for it. Now that they know the truth, they regret voting for BN, and if the clock could be turned back they would do the opposite.

But the damage has been done and the clock cannot be turned back. The Chinese threw their support behind the BN at the expense of the DAP. They have "killed" the only voice they had in Parliament. Now they have to turn to the BN to solve their problems.

The question is, will the BN help them in their time of need? MCA and Gerakan are at each other’s throats, each trying to outdo the other. They will be too busy trying to gain top billing in BN to worry about serving the Chinese. Umno, on the other hand, will need to gain back Malay support by being more Malay and more Muslims than PAS. If the Chinese fear PAS, wait and see what Umno has in store for the Chinese. In the end, the Chinese might find PAS more liberal in comparison.

PAS is no pushover when it comes to political strategy. They could have done a clean sweep in Kelantan, too, but they did not. Indeed, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah did not win. PAS purposely lost the seat to him. In fact, Mustapha Mohamed was harder to beat than Ku Li, still PAS managed to demolish Mustapha while Ku Li got through rather easily. Why?

PAS knows that Ku Li and Najib Tun Razak have a pact to kick out Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. That is why PAS let Ku Li stay on. Ku Li would keep Mahathir so busy he would have no time to harass Kelantan and Terengganu.

The next few months are going to be very interesting. Umno will be having its General Assembly soon and unless Mahathir, again, decrees a "no contest", the number two, and probably even number one slot will be up for grabs.

Umno is headed for turmoil. The Malays who backed BN have suddenly realised that Umno can no longer claim to be a party that "fights" for the Malays or upholds Malay rights and privileges. Umno is a party that perpetuates its rule through Chinese support. The Umno traditionalists are ashamed. They feel like they have sold their maruah.

The most interesting cog in the wheel, however, is Johor. Seventy-five per cent of Johor voters endorsed Umno. But it is not a vote in support of Mahathir. The Johoreans want to lay claim to Umno. To the Johoreans, Umno belongs to Johore. It was founded in Johore. Mahathir, however, has reduced Umno to a joke.

Come the next Umno General Assembly, the "Johor Mafia" will gang up against the "Kedah Mafia" and knock them out of office. It will be Team A and Team B all over again, but without the Kelantan factor. In fact, Kelantan has been reduced to a one-man show and he will be trampled in the stampede alongside Mahathir.

The Johoreans will not make their move just yet. They will allow Ku Li time to throw in the gauntlet. And just as the fighting heats up, they will gallop in and crush both sides.

As I have said before, we sure live in interesting times.

Malaysiakini.com