Can Malaysia afford another BN victory?
by Kim Quek

The recent Star survey of voting trend confirms our worst fear - there has been a massive shift of Chinese electoral support from the opposition to the ruling Barisan Nasional.

It is not difficult to see that the key to the battle in the remaining few days is the Chinese votes. If only the opposition had been able to maintain its minimum support of say 50% of Chinese votes, the scenario would have been drastically altered. BN support from all races may then likely be reduced to 53% and the Chinese pivotal effect in favour of BN will also be somewhat neutralised.

Why have the Chinese made a reverse turn against their traditional stance of support for the opposition, at a time when they should logically be giving their maximum support to topple what is obviously a discredited and outmoded regime?

The answer lies in Chinese inert fear of change, preyed upon successfully by false propaganda exuded from the local mass media.

The crucial factor in this Chinese political phenomenon is the mass media. Unlike their Malay brethren whose political objectivity is assisted by reading Harakah, the Chinese readers do not have the benefit of reading any publication that reports local politics objectively.

Since very few Chinese read Harakah, we deduce that among Star readers, the Malays depend on Harakah for their political news whereas the Chinese depend on Star for the same news. Therein lies the partial clue to the divergent political outlook between Malays and Chinese. Had the proportion of Chinese reading a publication like Harakah as high as that of Malays, the Chinese perception of BN Government would have been significantly different.

With BN monopolising the mass media, what avenues are options to the Alternative Front (AF) to redress the imbalance within the short period of a few days?

The best, and perhaps the only chance left, is the mass mobilisation of the entire AF supporting population to do a man to man battle (words, not physical). Every one who opposes the present ruling clique should make it his duty to convert fence sitters and BN supporters to his cause. It is human nature to ask: "What difference can a few converters (converted by me) make in the sea of 9 million voters?" If every one thinks in the same manner, then the few converters actually mean nothing. However, if many do not think so, and 1 in 5 AF supporters succeeds in converting 1 BN supporter, then the present ratio of 60:40 in favour of BN will be reduced to 52:48 still in favour of BN, but a complete change from the present one sided contest. Is it too much to ask of you to talk to your relatives, friends and even men in the street and get them to share your view of a better future for all of us? So, can we start off this campaign by telling other AF supporters you know of and ask them to pass on to their fellow AF supporters who will then pass on to others and so forth? Like a ripple in a pond, the waves will hit the shore in no time.

CHINESE FEAR

The Chinese fears in the coming election should be well known by this time. They are Islamic State, chaos and economic set back. Among the 3 fears, the first one may be more an excuse to support BN than a perceived real threat, as simple arithmetic tells us that it is not a possibility.

The second fear is real but should have receded as neither AF or BN has shown much keenness in stirring up racial animosity for fear of loosing support of racial groups. It is perhaps the third fear, that of disrupting the current path of economic recovery that is the vital underlying factor that pushes the Chinese towards voting for BN.

To these doubters of our economic well being under a diminished BN, the main thrust of our economic argument should be: BN has not carried out genuine reforms. Crony capitalism and corruption , which are the main culprits of our economic miseries, is still intact. Recent events amply demonstrated these facts: The aborted forced bank merger, repeated attempts to hijack the CLOB shares by BN cronies, repeated BN engineered attempts to rescue Renong (total debts RM 30 billion), extensive Government bail out of crony conglomerates without commensurate corporate reforms, handing out billions of ringgit of Government projects without tenders to win political support.

BN Government's weak economic management is further evidenced from its inability to restore investors confidence both foreign and local, and its recent uninnovative Budget designed more for winning votes than restructuring and reviving the economy.

Contrary to Mahathir's frequent assertion that Malaysia does not depend on foreigners for its success, foreign investment has been the main pillar of Malaysia's phenomenal growth in the past decade. More than half of Malaysia's export drives come from the electronic sector, which have prospered under foreign capital, technology and market. Without foreign investment, Mahathir's boast of a return to robust growth is an empty promise. Worst, when local investors also abstain from further investment.

How does Malaysia fare with others in this region in its competition for foreign investment?

It is the unanimous verdict of foreign analysts that Malaysia has carried out the least reforms and hence benefited least in the Asian Crisis. Our image is further worsened by BN Government's demolition of its own democratic institutions and Mahathir's venomous rhetoric on foreigners. This is in strong contrast to other fellow sufferers of the Asian Crisis, notably Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia who have won praise for having carried out painful reforms and restructure and for having advanced considerably on their democratisation process. South Korea and Thailand have made strong recovery accompanied by high levels of foreign direct investment as well as portfolio investment. And Indonesia is poised to take off strongly with returning Indonesian Chinese as well foreign investors, following the recent installation of a new President, which is firmly committed to democratisation and economic reforms.

If BN is returned with a landslide victory, Mahathir will take it as a personal endorsement of his leadership and will expand on his rule "his way". This means more mega spending, more cronyism and corruption, more abuses of democratic process and more anti-west bashing. This will further lower Malaysia's ranking in this region for receiving foreign investment. Malaysia will then be expected to suffer the agony of a long economic malaise, characterised by weak political and economic management.

VOTING ACROSS PARTY LINES

Noting that DAP's traditional Chinese has dwindled, Malays must make it a point to vote for DAP candidates to avoid them being eliminated. Similarly, non-Malays must also vote for PAS , Keadilan and PRM to increase the total strength of the Alternative Front.

(This article was written a week before the past 10th General Elections)