The spate of MPs defecting from their parties has increased voter disenchantment with MMP. Since the election 10 MPs have left their party. Only one of these has resigned from Parliament. There was wide spread outrage in 1997 when a Mana Motuhake member of the Alliance caucus, Alamein Kopu, left the Alliance to setup her own party, Mana Wahine. This occurred just days after she had signed a pledge for the third time in which she promised to resign from Parliament if she left the party. Most the criticism she received focussed on fact that she was a list MP, in Parliament only as a representative of her party. Since leaving the Alliance she has consistently supported the government of the time.

For a time the Kopu affair seemed to be an isolated incident. This belief was shattered in August 1998 when half the NZF party defected. Surprisingly, given their history, Peters and Bolger had formed a strong bond as Prime Minister and deputy, forged, reportedly, over numerous glasses of whiskey. When Shipley rolled Bolger in late 1997 this was seen as a major threat to the stability of the coalition. The brief given to Shipley by her supporters was quite clear: stand up to NZF. While Peters was angry that National had dumped Bolger, anger turned to fury when Shipley announced in her first press conference as PM, that she would not run the country over a bottle of whiskey. A state of mutual antagonism prevailed for close to nine months, until finally at a special cabinet meeting on the sale of Wellington Airport Peters led the NZF contingent out of the cabinet room. Within a week Shipley had advised the Governor-General to withdraw Peters warrant. Peters then attempted to bring down the government by taking NZF into opposition. At this point NZF fell apart. Only half his caucus followed him onto the cross-benches. He left behind four of the five Maori MPs, who had become disillusioned with Peters when he orchestrated the dumping of the Minister for Maori Affairs, Tau Henare, as the party's deputy leader. He also lost all but one of the NZF ministers, who decided that their real loyalty lay with the Shipley government. With the support of Act New Zealand, the United New Zealand party and Alamein Kopu this was enough to give Shipley's administration a two-vote majority in the House. This has since been reduced to one vote with the resignation from Parliament of former NZF Minister for Youth Affairs, Deborah Morris and her replacement by a NZF MP. A possible solution to the problem of List MPs defecting can be found in the private members bill proposed by the deputy leader of the Labour party, Dr Michael Cullen, which would force List MPs who leave their party to resign from parliament.

A Failed Experiment?

MMP has not had the introduction its supporters would have wished, but after one election surely it is too soon to consign the system to the dustbin. The personality of Winston Peters and the internal dynamics of his party have been crucial role to the way the system has operated over the last two and a half years, but on current polling it seems most unlikely that Peters will be in the same position again. Critics of MMP argue that if New Zealand had remained with FPP this situation would never have occurred in the first place. This is unclear. It must be remembered that the 1993 election resulted in a Parliament that was one seat from giving NZF the balance of power. If the 1996 election had been conducted under FPP this would certainly have effected the behaviour of both the parties and voters. This makes it difficult to speculate on the likely result. However, it is far from clear that the result would have been much different. If we look at the electorates won, as set out in table 5 below, it seems that NZF would have been in the same position. The internal tensions would have remained, though the Maori wing of the party would have been strengthened greatly.

Table 5. Electorate Seats by Party 1996

Parties	Electorate Seats (65)
National	30
Labour	26
NZF	6
Alliance	1
Act	1
United	1

Currently New Zealand politics is peopled by politicians drilled in the tradition of two party politics. The leaders of all the parties represented in Parliament were members of either the Labour or National caucus in the 1984-1990 period. Perhaps once the voters and politicians have become more accustomed to the system it will prove itself capable of providing stable government that reflects the voting choices of the majority.

While support for MMP has collapsed, there is a high level of support for the principles of proportional representation. When asked whether the party with the most votes (using 40% as an example) should get about 40 per cent of the seats, or should it get more than half of the seats so that it can govern on its own? a clear majority of respondents favored proportionality. Despite the performance of NZF when the question was applied to minor parties almost two-thirds of respondents wanted to see a party with 15% of the vote get about 15% of the seats with only 30% believing such a party should get less than 15%. When the premises of proportional representation and FPP were put into direct competition, respondents by a very small margin, supported the principle of giving parties proportional representation over ensuring one party received over half the seats in parliament. This is particularly interesting given that a clear majority of respondents preferred single party governments (59%) to coalitions (37%).

Despite headline opinion polls suggesting that MMP is dead, it seems that voters still have an attachment to the principle of proportionality and most are not convinced by the traditional arguments mounted in favour of FPP as an electoral system. This seems to support the idea that it is the way MMP has operated in the current parliament, rather than the concept of proportionality per se, which voters are rejecting. It should also be noted that MMP has lived up to many of its claims. The representation of women has increased, from just over 20% in the last Parliament elected under FPP, to just under 30% in the current Parliament, although the proportion of women MPs was already increasing, as Figure 1 shows. At the same time the representation of Maori has increased, to a position where the proportion of Maori in Parliament is roughly proportional to the number of Maori in New Zealand. There are now three Pacific Islanders in Parliament, up from one previously, though this still sees New Zealand's Pacific Islander community under-represented. The first MMP election also saw the election of New Zealand's first Asian MP. So to the extent that microcosmic representation is important, MMP has been a success.

Also the very outcomes that have caused such disenchantment can also be seen as some sort of success for MMP. When voters opted for MMP in 1993 they were expressing a lack of trust in the two major parties to govern alone. With this in mind they chose a system that would prevent these two parties from enjoying unbridled power. This seems to have been achieved.

MMP has not had the introduction its supporters would have wished. However it has not been the complete failure many commentators suggest. To the extent that New Zealand has experienced political instability recently it is not clear that this is the fault of MMP. Indeed it may well have happened under FPP. Majoritarian electoral systems based on single-member electorates did not prevent the emergence of minority governments at the state level in Australia. The rise of NZF was a phenomena that pre-dated MMP. With its decline perhaps MMP will prove capable of providing greater stability. A parliamentary review of the system is due for 2002. The committee is likely to be dominated by members of the two largest parties, both of which contain many members would prefer a return to FPP. By the time of this review we will be in a better position to judge the experiment. However this opportunity might not arise. On Anzac Day New Zealand's Prime Minister, Jenny Shipley, announced that if a National-led government was returned to office at this years election, it would hold a referendum mid-term. The referendum, modeled on the 1992 vote, would ask voters whether they want further electoral reform and if so which of four systems (the three unsuccessful systems put forward in 1992 plus FPP) they would prefer. A second referendum would pit MMP against its most popular rival.

While it may be too early to tell whether the MMP experiment has failed, it looks like the experiment may be close to running its course.

Marcus Ganley is a doctoral student in the Department of Political Science at the University of Western Australia. He holds a Masters degree, with first class honours, from the University of Auckland, New Zealand, where in 1996 and 1997, he was Commonwealth Scholar from Australia.