The numbers of concerns...

As they used to say in the stock market,all the factors i.e foundamental  and technical, inclusive of greed and fears, will be summarised by the  price and
quantity of the shares traded.Similarly,a political party will be "priced" by the numbers of votes it received in the election.However,if we make a mistake in buying a wrong stock, only our fingers may get burnt.But if choose the wrong
government and leaders,the whole country may get burnt.

On the 29th Nov.,1999,Malaysians went to the polls-it is the  10th general
election. This time,it has produced a new political equation.It is more complex  than the last one, for it is capable of generating  many questions and answers with disturbing trend to the ruling party.(Mathematically speaking,it is an equation with a negative variable function).The numbers are especially worrying to UMNO .The  erosion of support from the Malays(ranging from 5%- 20%-state average) posed a threat to its dominant role as the backbone of Barisan Nasional (BN) in the future.How can UMNO play a dominant role in the Barisan Nasional with  just over 48% of the seats secured?In addition to that,only 53% of the voters support BN? And looking at the near future, how  will the new voters of about 1.5 million  vote in 2004 ? UMNO will have a real headache...

Back in mid-90's,the country got carried away with economic boom.Only a
few questioned how its success was achieved.But when  we had a currency
crisis that bleeds our economy in  the 3rd quarter of 1997,everyone got a
jolt,including the big boys. A year later,a political crisis made it worse.It began
when Dato' Seri  Anwar Ibrahim,the then deputy prime minister  was sacked.

The political and economic scenario of the last two years is very conducive for some soul searching among Malaysians.The public was bombarded with a lot of information and misinformation by the warring factions.A lot of dirty linens were hung for all and sundry to see,not to mention the uncovering of skeletons in the
cupboards of a few prominent politicians.To make them more juicy,  the
public was exposed to a few sex scandals.As a Malaysian,I am very ashamed about all this public disclosures by all parties...

As a result of all these events,there were a lot of reviews and rethinkings in the minds of Malaysians about what were  going on in their country.The hearts and the minds of the people were divided.This is reflected in their votes  casted a few days ago-53% for Barisan Nasional and 47% for Barisan Alternatif.

A really  great divide!

Another point to note is that the total UMNO and PAS MP's represents only 51.2% of all parliamentary seats.They will still need the political supports from the others to make a sustainable ruling front.

This 10th general election is no ordinary one.It is the last election of the 20th century to usher Malaysians  into the 21st century and the new millennium.It should be a time for all parties to work as a united nation setting up the right model and engine to launch itself into the new era.Instead,it was a time
where the two warring factions were armed to the teeth to kill off one another. And I have witnessed one of the worst political warfares ever fought in Malaysian election history.

The people has spoken.Now,everyone knows the results and the verdict of
the people.The BN won the battle,but  UMNO has  lost the war.The onslaught by PAS is a real wake-up call.To remain relevant in the next decade,UMNO has to make changes across the board;failing which it will lose the confidence and trust of the Malays,especially to attract the younger ones and also to retain the greying UMNO supporters.Besides,PAS and KeADILan are waiting to welcome them with open arms.Subsequently,UMNO will also lose its leadership role in BN. How it is going to do it,we will have to wait and see.A few UMNO veterans have called for a revamp of UMNO to attract the  younger electorate and others are still waiting for the results of their post-mortems.The sooner UMNO pulls up its socks the better-for the  younger generation has less patience than the older one.

PAS is a force to reckon with.It is no more as the party of the 'ketayap and the sarong" people as being mentioned by some UMNO members.The dawn raid of Terengganu  is a proof of PAS  prowess and caught many by surprise,especially the state UMNO leadership. Most of them were still 'asleep' in their sarongs.The night before the election,they were confident of retaining 24 of 32 DUN's.Not only they lost  28 DUN's ,but they also lost ALL 8  parliamentary seats! A friend likens the PAS attack is similar to the way the Japanese came to conquer Malaya from the British during WWII.They started from Pantai Sabak in Kota Bharu, Kelantan and slowly they cycled all the way down south.With the 'good roads ' these days,they may arrive sooner than expected.I overheard that Kedah and Pahang are their next destinations.

As a Malaysian,I am looking forward to have a  clean,effective and responsible government (Bersih Cekap dan Amanah).At the same time,we  also must have
an effective opposition front to maintain the check and balance.It is all up to  us Malaysians to ensure that we have a good  and responsible government.

As the saying goes,the people  rightly deserve the governments  they elected and the governments also deserve the people who elected them .And for God's sake,  don't blame anyone for it-especially the foreigners.It is time we as citizens of independent nation must be accountable and responsible for all our actions.

NEGARA KITA TANGGUNGJAWAB KITA

Percentage the number of vote between BN and non-BN/BA

Johor 68% 32%
Terengganu 40% 60%
Melaka 56.6% 43.4%
Pahang 57% 43%
Negeri 9 59% 41%
Selangor 54.7% 45.3%
KL 50.2% 49.8%
Kelantan 38.9% 61.1%
Perak 55.5% 44.5%
P.Pinang 51.36% 48.64%
Kedah 55.75% 44.25%
Perlis 56.17% 43.83%
National level: BN 52.9% non-BN/BA 47.1%
(These statistics only refer to the votes for MPs, and for mainland Malaysia)

It is clear that only 53% of the population actually voted for the BN, and not 2/3 (which would be
66.66%).

Total Vote : 4,985,399
for BN: 2,638,464
non-BN/BA: 2,346,935

DIFFERENCE: 291,529 !
The opposition only needs 145,765 votes to get 50% of the votes. So if 680K voters come in, what will happen ?