Highlights
of Economic Survey
1997-98
Growth
and Investment
- Agriculture
grew by 5.9 percent during 1997-98 against almost zero growth of last year.
- Major crops grew by 8.4 percent in 1997-98 against
a negative growth of 4.8 percent in 1996-97.
- Value added in large scale manufactures increased by
6.2 percent in 1997-98 from negative growth of 2.3 percent in 1996-97.
- Electricity & Gas Distribution Sector grew from negative 0.03 percent in 1996-97 to 9.3 percent in 1997-98.
- Transport, Storage & Communication Sector grew from 0.7 percent in 1996-97 to 8.8 percent in 1997-98.
- Per Capita Income at constant prices of 1980-81 increased from Rs 4227 in 1996-97 to Rs 4347 in 1997-98 indicating an improvement of 2.8 percent.
- Per Capita Income at current prices rose from Rs 17,634 in 1996-97 to Rs 19,741 in 1997-98 showing a rise of 11.9 percent.
- Per Capita Income in US$ increased from $ 452 in 1996-97 to $ 457 in 1997-98.
- Total investment stood at 17.4 percent of GNP in 1997-98 compared with 17.5 percent of GNP in 1996-97.
- National savings as percentage of GNP increased from 11.3 percent in 1996-97 to 15.0 percent during 1997-98.
Agriculture
Agriculture is estimated to grow by 5.9 percent in 1997-98 compared with 0.06 percent last year.
- Cotton production declined : Due to attack of leaf
- f rom 9.4 million bales in 1996-97 : curl virus and adverse
- to 9.2 million bales in 1997-98 : weather condition.
- Rice production increased to 4325 thousand tons in 1997-98 from 4305 thousand tons last year---an increase of 0.5 percent.
- Sugarcane production increased to 53.1 million tons in 1997-98 from 42.0 million tons last year---an increase of 26.4 percent.
- Wheat production increased to 18.6 million tons in 1997-98 from 16.7 million tons last year---an increase of 12.0 percent.
- Minor Crops: Increase in gram production 30%
Increase in bajra production 45.2%
Increase in jowar production 7.8%
Increase in onion production 6%
Increase in potato production 39.7%
- The fertilizer off-take stood at 2032.27 thousand nutrient tons in 1997-98 (July-March) as compared with 1899.24 thousand nutrient tons over corresponding period last year showing an increase of 7 percent.
- Agriculture credit amounting to Rs.23,328 million was disbursed in 1997-98 (July-March) as compared with Rs.19,548 million over corresponding period last year showing an increase of 19.3 percent.
Manufacturing, Mining and Investment Policies
- The following large scale manufactures recorded increase during July-March 1997-98 as compared to July-March 1996-97:
- sugar (46.06%), jute goods (36.39%), cigarettes (6.77%), motor tyres (35.54%) and tractors (35.81%) cotton yarn (1.78%), cotton cloth (1.96%), paper & board (1.19%), LCV`s (5.57%) and bicycles (1.61%).
- The following large scale manufactures recorded decline during July-March 1997-98 as compared to same period of 1996-97:
- fertilizer (2.09%), cement (3.87%), soda ash (4.19%), caustic soda (5.92%), motor cycles (20.37%), coke (7.62%), pig iron/ hot metal (11.24%), billets (8.11%) and trucks (36.59%).
- Manufacturing sector grew by 7.0 percent during 1997-98 while large scale manufacturing sector recovered from last year`s negetive growth of 2.3 percent to 6.2 percent. However, small scale manufacturing sub-sector maintained its previous growth of 8.4 percent.
- Industrial Investment increased by 15.8 percent during 1997-98 in manufacturing sector as a whole, 17.5 percent in large scale and 9.1 percent in small scale manufacturing.
- Foreign Investment stood at $ 639.9 million during July-March, 1997-98 as compared to & 633.7 million during July-March 1996-97, depicting an increase of 1.0 percent.
- New Investment Policy 1997 was announced to broaden the scope of foreign investment inflow to other sectors like agriculture, services alongwith manufacturing and energy. Now foreign investment allowed in these sectors constitutes three-fourth of GDP.
Fiscal Policy
- Budget deficit is estimated to be reduced from 6.2 percent of GDP in 1996-97 to 5.0 percent in 1997-98 (or Rs 148 billion).
- The CBR's revenue collection target of Re 324.0 billion was revised downward to Rs 297.6 billion, owing mainly to slow revival of economic activity and sharp decline in dutiable imports.
- During the first 10 months (July-April, 1997-98) of the current fiscal year, the CBR has collected Rs 225.02 billion which is 75.6 percent of the annual revised target and 1.8 percent higher than the last year's tax collection of the comparable period.
- In the consolidated budget, 1997-98, the total revenues have been estimated at Rs 461.29 billion. The total expenditure have been projected at Rs 609.29 billion, resulting in an overall deficit of Rs 148 billion.
- Current expenditure was budgeted at 519.2 billion which is 13.4 percent higher than last year and is estimated at 18.0 percent of GDP.
- Expenditure on general administration was budgeted at Rs 41.0 billion which is 2.4 percent lower than the last year.
- Development expenditure of Rs 90.1 billion was 5.8 percent higher than provisional actual of 1996-97 and is estimated at 3.1 percent of GDP.
- As of end June, 1998 the domestic debt stood at Rs 1160.8 billion against Rs.1048.8 billion at end June, 1997.
- The growing domestic debt, particularly the debt servicing is fast emerging as constraint on Pakistan's effort to reduce fiscal deficit at a sustainable level.
Money and Credit
- During the first nine months of 1997-98 money supply (M2) increased by 14 percent as against the target of 14.2 percent for the whole year and an expansion of 8.1 percent in the first nine months of 1996-97.
- Borrowing for budgetary support stood at Rs 39.5 billion compared to the whole year's target of Rs 58 billion and last year expansion of Rs 81.5 billion in the same period.
- Credit to private sector increased by Rs 78 billion during the first nine months of 1997-98 compared to Rs 56.4 billion in the comparable period last year.
- Net foreign assets increased by Rs 18.0 billion as compared to a contraction of Rs 57.9 billion in the same period last year mainly due to an improvement in current account balances.
Capital Market
- The stock market reflected encouraging growth during the first six months of the current year as a result of the Industrial Recovery Package of the Government, announced in May 1997.
- In the third quarter of the current year negative impact of currency crisis of South East Asian countries were reflected on our stock market. As a result main indicators of stock market recorded decline.
- Aggregate market capitalization decreased by 9 percent from Rs 469.2 billion on June 30, 1997 to Rs 427.1 billion on March 31, 1998.
- During July-March 1997-98 KSE price index declined by 11.4 percent.
Inflation
- Inflation during July-April, 1997-98 as measured by the changes in the CPI, declined to 8.2 percent as against 11.6 percent of last year.
- Factors responsible for decline in inflation rate are tight demand management policy, improved supply situation as a result of higher-than-target growth in agriculture, decline in international prices of major imports and little upward adjustment to administered prices.
External Sector
- The trade deficit (custom basis) was as high as $ 3,574 million or 5.8 percent of GDP in 1996-97. This has improved by 54.2 percent during July-April, 1997-98 and amounted to $ 1,325.2 million over $ 2,895.9 million of the comparable period last year.
- Exports grew by 4.6 percent (July-April, 1997-98) and imports declined by 12.9 percent as detailed below:
|
Exports |
% Change |
Imports |
% Change |
|
Primary Commodities |
20.2 |
Food Group |
29.4 |
|
Textile Manufactures |
-0.4 |
Machinery Group |
-24.5 |
|
Other Manufactures |
1.5 |
Petroleum Group |
-26.7 |
|
`Other’ Items |
34.4 |
Agri-Chemical Group |
-13.0 |
- The current account deficit in 1996-97 was $ 3,846 million or 6.2 percent of GDP. This has sharply declined to $ 1,127 million during July-March, 1997-98 as against $ 3,288 million of the comparable period last year reflecting an improvement of 65.7 percent.
- The private unrequited transfers (July-March, 1997-98) rose to $ 2,792 million indicating a sharp rise of 33.6 percent. The workers remittances (July-April, 1997-98) increased by 11.9 percent to $ 1,266 million. The foreign exchange reserves has risen to $ 1,359.2 million by end April, 1998 with 11.5 percent built up over the level of $ 1,219.4 million recorded at end June, 1997.
Foreign Economic Assistance
- The disbursed and outstanding external debt (medium & long term) are estimated by end June 1998 at $ 24,545 million exhibiting an increase of 6.0 percent over last year.
- The debt servicing during 1997-98 would amount to $ 2,416 million (or 3.8% of GDP) indicating a growth of 6.7 percent.
- The commitments and disbursements of foreign aid during 1997-98 are projected to grow by 88.8 percent and 43.4 percent respectively.
Transport and Communications
a. Transport
- During July-March 1997-98 the total length of roads in the country increased to 236,041 kms compared with 228,206 kms during 1996-97. Total number of motor vehicles on road stood at 3.832 million during July-March 1997-98 compared with 3.498 million during 1996-97.
- Islamabad-Lahore Motorway (M-2) has been completed and opened for traffic in November 1997.
- Pakistan Railways network comprises of 8,775 route kilometers and 781 stations. Its major assets includes 551 locomotives, 4,250 passenger coaches and 32,000 freight wagons. During 1997-98 it carried 64.28 million passengers and its gross earnings stood at Rs.10.095 billion during this period.
- PIA's network covers 55 international and 37 domestic stations. Its fleet consist of 47 aircrafts of varied types.
b. Ports & Shipping
- Karachi Port handled 17.020 million tonnes of cargo during July-March 1997-98 compared with 17.460 million tonnes during the same period last year.
- Port Qasim handled 11.021 million tonnes of cargo during July-March 1997-98 compared with 7.584 million tonnes during July-March 1996-97.
- The Pakistan National Shipping Corporation a national flag carrier owns 15 vessels of 261,836 dwt.
c. Communications
- During July-March 1997-98 over the comparable period last year, the number of telegraph offices increased from 427 to 444; telephone connections from 2.463 million to 2.652 million; public call offices from 9,998 to 10,057. During 1997-98, the television sets are estimated to increase from 2.824 million in 1996-97 to 2.965 million and VCRs from 278,200 to 281,000.
Energy
a) Crude Oil
- Production of crude oil per day declined to 55,992 barrels during July-March 1997-98 from 58,797 barrels per day during the same period last year showing a decrease of 4.77 percent.
- Total production of crude oil declined to 15.342 million barrels during July-March 1997-98 from 16.110 million barrels during the comparable period last year showing a decrease of 4.77 percent.
- Sectoral consumption of oil and oil products accounted for by transport sector (42.34%), power sector (37.78%), industrial sector (13.01%), households (3.17%), other government (2.23%) and agriculture sector (1.47%) during July-March 1997-98.
b. Natural Gas
- Production of gas per day slightly increased to 1,922 million cubic feet during July-March 1997-98 from 1,907 million cubic feet per day during the corresponding period of 1996-97 showing an increase of 0.79 percent.
- Total production of gas recorded at 526,628 million cubic feet during July-March 1997-98 compared with 522,518 million cubic feet showing an increase of 0.79 percent over the same period last year.
- Sectoral consumption of gas accounted for by power sector (29.44%), fertilizer industry (24.36%), households (21.60%), industrial sector (19.40%), commercial sector (3.27%), cement industry (1.87%) and transport (0.06%).
c. Electricity
- Total installed capacity of electricity (WAPDA, KESC, KANUPP & Private Producers) stood at 15,996 MW during July-March 1997-98 compared with 13,121 MW during the comparable period last year recording an addition of 2,875 MW or 21.91 percent.
- During July-March 1997-98, 45,038 gwh of electricity was produced against 43,605 gwh during the same period last year.
- The number of villages electrified increased to 65,473 during July-February 1997-98 from 64,568 during 1996-97.
- The number of consumers (WAPDA & KESC) stood at 11.50 million upto February 1998.
d) Petroleum Policy 1997
In October 1997, a new petroleum policy was announced which introduced various measures to exploit the existing energy resources and to built a tangible production base in the country. These measures are in the form of improved incentives, procedures, regulatory framework and transparancy. Efforts were focused in the policy to attract private sector investment in the off-shore areas where no drilling activity was carried out since 1990.
Education
- The government has recently announced new education policy 1998-2010.
- Literacy rate is estimated at 40% (51% male and 28% female) in 1997-98.
- There are 1,58,511 primary schools, 15,909 middle schools, 10,004 high schools, in 1997-98. For higher education the existing educational system is being strengthened and consolidated.
- Considerable improvement has been made in the enrolment ratios.
- Participation rate at primary level increased from 74.8% (85.5% male and 63.1% female) in 1996-97 to 77 percent (93% male and 61% female) in 1997-98.
- At middle stage participation rate increased from 31.6 percent (36.5% male and 25.8% female) in 1996-97 to 49 percent (62% male and 36% female) in 1997-98.
- At high school level participation rate rose from 29.7 percent (36.2% male and 22.3% female) in 1996-97 to 34 percent (43% male and 25% female) in 1997-98.
- Expenditure on education stood at 2.25 as percent of GNP in 1997-98 and the government is committed to raise it to 4 percent of GNP by the year 2010.
- Substantial progress has been made under the education component of SAP to increase access of girls to primary education.
Health and Nutrition
- At present there are 865 hospitals, 4523 dispensaries, 5121 basic health units, 853 maternity and child health centres at national level in Pakistan.
- In the calendar year 1997 there was one doctor for 1724 persons, one dentist for 42823 persons, one nurse for 5460 persons, one nurse for 3.6 hospital beds and one hospital bed for 1504 persons.
- The total outlay on health is budgeted at R 19.7 billion which is 7.2 % higher over last year.
- During 1997-98, 53 basic health units, 17 rural health centres and 10 urban health centres were constructed.
- 55 rural health centres and 200 basic health units were upgraded, 2164 new beds were added in the hospitals, and 3140 doctors, 298 dentists, 2198 nurses and 5250 paramedics completed their courses. 6.1 million children were immunized and 19.75 million pockets of ORS were distributed.
- National Health Policy announced during 1997 aims to improve the health status through primary health care approach.
- 42250 lady health workers have been trained and are deployed mostly in the rural areas under the P.M's programme for family planning and primary health care.
- Cancer treatment, anti-AIDs Programme and malaria control programme were carried out in 1997-98.
- A massive drive against drug trafficking was undertaken by the government.
- Per capita caloric intake per annum is 2579 calories while per capita protein availability is 69.63 grams in 1997-98 which show improvement of 1.9% and 2.6% respectively over the last year.
Human Resource Development
Human Capital
- Population of Pakistan is estimated at 139.024 million by 1st January, 1998.
- The current population growth rate is estimated to be 2.7 percent during 1997-98.
- The crude birth rate which was 43.30 per thousand population in 1981 has declined to 37.6 per thousand in 1994 and is estimated to be around 36.000 per thousand in 1998.
- The total labour force is estimated at 38.18 million.
- Agriculture is the largest source of employment (46.8%) followed by Finance and social Services (14.3%), Trade (14.5%), Manufacturing and Mining (10.5%.
- The estimated rate of open un-employment for 1997-98 is 5.37 percent.
Housing and Environment
- The 8th Five Year Plan estimated shortage of houses at 6.25 million (4.31 million units in rural and 1.94 million units in urban areas) in 1993. It envisaged to meet the incremental shortage of 150,000/- houses every year.
- During 9th Five Year Plan period (1998-2003), the major objectives in the Housing sector will be to minimize the disparities and reduce imbalances in between rural and urban areas.
- Under the Social Action Programme (SAP.II), 1997-98 to 2001-2002, the 71.5 percent population will be served with safe drinking water supply and 36.7 percent sanitation facilities.
- Under the development programme for the current year an allocation of Rs.10.1 billion (Federal Rs.2.1 billion and Provincial Rs.7.9 billion) have been made for Housing sector. Out of this about 71 percent has been earmarked for water supply and sewerage/sanitation projects.
- Under the Prime Minister's relief package for widows/ orphan(s) and retired Government employees, the HBF has allowed remission to total number of 1181 for Rs.76.7 million.
- The Government has allocated Rs.269.7 million for Environment Sector in Federal PSDP 1997-98, whereas, the overall sectoral allocation under Provincial PSDP Rs.794.1 million.
Social Action Programme
- The Social Action Programme is a programme of multi-sector approach with aim to correct the poor status of the social sector.
SAP-PHASE-I
- Duration 1993-1996
- Expenditure Rs. 108.5 billion
- Foreign assistance was 12.3% of the total expenditure.
- The focus of the programme was on the provision of basic service to most vulnerable or marginalized groups of society, e.g. female education, infants care and un-reached rural inhabitants in the four major sectors of Primary Education, Primary Health Care, Population Welfare and Rural Water supply & Sanitation.
SAP-PHASE-II
- Duration 1997-2002.
- Estimated expenditure Rs 498.8 billion.
- Foreign assistance is Rs 60.8 billion to be provided by donors.
- The focus of SAPP-II will be on consolidation of SAP sector services rather than their expansion, excepting some additional components in education ( middle schooling, technical/teacher training non-formal executions etc) and health sector (Tehsil/district headquarter hospitals, Tuberculoses and nutrition etc).