Successive collective labour agreements by previous administrations, including a clause requiring the maintenance a minimum number of employees, have placed Montréal at a disadvantage vis-a-vis other municipalities which have cut costs by privatizing a number of services.
Any future mayor will have to face these problems. If he is to overcome them, he will have to play a regional role, and work with the provincial government to redress past problem. Although all three of the front-runners have discussed these issues during their respective visits to Wednesday Night and all seem to be agreed that something must be done to negotiate a new fiscal pact with Québec, none of them appears to be capable of doing this.
The official campaign starts on Thursday, September 4th and runs for 58 days. There will be public debates between the mayoralty candidates. These bear watching.
(The Editor again: Saturday's Globe & Mail carried an excellent piece by Benoit Aubin in the Focus section - very upbeat- it is headed "For Quebec there's a catch to globalization". We are hoping to obtain a copy for the web site.)
R u s s i a
We in the west seem to believe that the only answer to
Russia's problems is capitalism. It must be remembered that Russia in fact, was the
birthplace of the communist revolution which was then exported to other east European countries. Rather than attempt to complete the conversion of Russia to capitalism by 2000, the west would do better to go slowly, a step at a time. The problem is that the central communist Russian government controlled the entire cash flow. With privatization, the central government continued to
have responsibility for the outflow of cash, but no longer received the fruits of production.
Marika Pruska- Carroll |
The cash flow was further reduced by the collapse of the oil market. The printing of money as an immediate remedy, exacerbated the problem. The collection of taxes proved impossible; the government is supported by people
in whose interest it is not to pay taxes. The solution of issuing high-yield treasury bills led to the discounting abroad of Russian treasury bill futures. Ultimately, this led to the collapse of the ruble.
The answer is not financial aid from the west. Any money given to the Russian government would quickly end up in private pockets and depart Russia for safer havens without ever being of any benefit to the beleaguered economy.
The answer for Russia is new laws and institutions, before any real reform can take place. Parliament remains the only democratic institution, freely and democratically elected.
Russians have a long history of surviving hardships. The danger is that in addition to today's hardships, Russians are now suffering the humiliation not unlike that suffered in post World War I Germany. The humiliation imposed by the treaty of
Versailles ultimately led to the rise of fascism and World War II. In Russia to-day, civil unrest and the resurgence of rabid nationalism are a strong possibility.
One of our experts who has recently returned from a summer-long visit in Russia commented that the situation of the individual is worse than it has been for a very long time. And now there is a very real threat of a potato famine this winter. The experts agree that the outlook is grim and it is doubtful, though not impossible, that Yeltsin will win the current battle with the Duma.
Meanwhile the Canadian government is still organizing a Team Canada visit and it appears that interest is high. Go figure!
On the note of Trade, the August 31st edition of Canadian Sailings, published by former Mayor of Westmount, Brian Gallery, and edited by our good friend Leo Ryan carries a good piece on Russia, but of course it does not take into account the events of the past few days.
R e a l e s t a t e
Bruce Bunnett |
Andrew Cross |
As for the Montréal, the commercial real estate market seems to have died down. Following a very active year, charlatan investors appear to have been attempting to buy properties for immediate sale at a profit.
M a r k e t s
Who got it right? -- again!
Please see our charts
DTNicholson Monday Aug 17, 1998 8:00am "Buy" however with a STOP 8200 see chart when 8200 is broken LOOK OUT for sharp drop and a fast rebound to test the neck line.
Andre Lemir |
WELL, it has been quite a week! Much of last week's extensive discussion continues this week - the Canadian Dollar, the Markets, the Russian political and economic crisis, impact on Asia of all of this.
John Melikoff |
Lacking participation by our usual vociferous experts, discussion of the market was limited to the sage comment that the roller coaster still has a way to go before the thrills are over.
ByHerbert Bercovitz
|
Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson
Susan Eyton-Jones
|
Saturday 6 March 1999
Crippled giants Russia, a vast land with natural riches and
talented people, is a disaster and its president,
Boris Yeltsin, is lurching and incoherent NORMAN WEBSTER (saved)
Friday, September 04, 1998 Russia: What is to be done?
By Peter Cook
Brussels -- It is nearly a century since Vladimir Ilyich Ulianov, who became known as Lenin, published a revolutionary tract on Russia, What is to be done? For him, the question was rhetorical. He knew perfectly well what he wanted done, the creation of a disciplined party of the proletariat strong enough to overthrow the Czar.
Russia's political and financial chaos continued, even as BILL CLINTONBORIS YELTSIN at a summit in Moscow. The Communist-
dominated Duma refused to endorse Mr Yeltsin's appointee as prime
minister, Viktor Chernomyrdin, leaving the country without a
government. The rouble went on sliding.
Stock Market History
Monday, August 31, 1998 close
Blue chips and technology stocks finished with massive losses Monday as the
market continued last week's heavy selling and sharp declines. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average fell 513 points, or 6.4%, to 7539. The
technology-laden Nasdaq Composite Index fell about 140 points, or 8.6%, to
1499, its largest one-day drop and well below its opening 1998 level.
Friday, August 28, 1998 An early attempt at a recovery on Wall Street faltered Friday, as investors remained worried about troubles in Russian and Asian economies. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average fell about 114 points, or 1.4%, to 8052. The
Nasdaq Composite Index fell 47 points, or 2.8%, to about 1640. The
composite ended the day more than 18% below its all-time high, just short
of the 20% threshold that would suggest a bear market for Nasdaq.
Saturday, August 22, 1998 Fear grips markets; dollar falls below 65¢ Stocks swing wildly in Toronto, New York
Bay Street looks bleak as the bear looms
Investors sing the blues as reality bites into market
By Eric Reguly and Andrew Willis
Don't be lulled by yesterday's soft landing. The mood on Bay Street and Wall Street is grim. If we're not in a bear market, we're so close it hardly makes a difference. After a fall of 126.73 points, the Toronto Stock Exchange 300-stock composite index is down 19.5 per cent from its April 22 high of 7,822.25. That puts the index one bad session away from a 20-per-cent decline, or official bear status. The Dow Jones industrial average has fared better, with a drop of 8.6 per cent from its July peak, while the Standard & Poor's 500 is off 8.9 per cent.
Class-action fever threatens Canadian firms By Eric Reguly
Forget about hiring brokers and investment advisers. Get a lawyer instead and start a class-action suit. It's easy, it's fun and can produce small fortunes with little effort. Shareholders of Livent , the live theatre company accused of funny accounting, believe that there's gold in Livent's misfortunes. The first of a flurry of class-action suits came only 24 hours after Livent suspended founder Garth Drabinsky and his sidekick Myron Gottlieb and said it may have to restate financial results for the past two years.
RUSSIA stories
See Monday, February 15, 1999 The Oettinger Letter on Risks in Russia
also Wed 861 0n Russia
Russian Ramifications from 'Applied Derivatives Trading'[ADT]
Tuesday, September 01, 1998 Yeltsin, Clinton meet as turmoil spreads
Two weakened leaders will try to bolster
Russia's crippled economy
By Geoffrey York And Paul Koring
Moscow and Washington -- GEOFFREY YORK in Moscow PAUL KORING in Washington
U.S. President Bill Clinton meets President Boris Yeltsin in Moscow today in an effort to stiffen Russian resolve for economic reform as the country plunges toward chaos.
Tuesday, September 01, 1998 Russian bear kills U.S. bull for good
Investors switch to cash
By Brian Milner
New York -- Stock strategists aren't sure what to expect next but most agree on one thing: The bull market that has enriched ordinary investors and moved traders and fund managers into high-rent districts isn't going to reappear any time soon. Stock-market investors are so jittery these days that it doesn't take much -- some gloomy U.S. purchasing managers, stubborn Russian parliamentarians, perhaps even a North Korean missile test -- to set off a stampede to the exits.
The Economist
Monday, August 31, 1998
RUBBLE
Any remaining confidence in the ROUBLE vanished as Russia's financial
crisis worsened. In its biggest one-day fall in four years, the Russian
currency sank 40% against the D-mark; the central bank gave up trying
to support the currency, and suspended foreign-exchange dealing. Three
big banks, Uneximbank, Menatep and Most Bank, said they would merge.
The IMF, due to release $4.3 billion soon to Russia as part of an aid
package, is watching glumly.
Foreign investors started to run up big losses in their RUSSIAN
INVESTMENTS. Credit Suisse First Boston, an investment bank, said it
had lost at least $250m in less than two months, mainly thanks to
Russia. And George Soros's Quantum Fund said it had lost up to $2
billion -- ironic this, since Mr Soros helped to trigger the latest
crisis.
World stockmarkets sagged again, partly in response to Russia's
difficulties. Tokyo's shares fell to a six-year low as political
wrangling over JAPAN'S BANK REFORM, and over intervening to support the
yen, depressed the Nikkei share average.
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