The Curve Continues To Tip Down

Berhe W., The Monitor (Addis Ababa), July 18, 2000

A workshop on the current status of forest genetics of Ethiopia held on July 11, 2000 in Addis Ababa startled many people here when the report on TV said that the forest resources in Ethiopia now stands at 2.3% of the country's total area; down from 4%. This last figure, 4%, was a fixture for so long that we were wondering when it would go up or down.

It was suspected all along by many people anyhow that the prevailing curve would go down rather than up under the conditions. Simple reality check: The volume of charcoal that comes in to Addis alone everyday couldn't have left anyone in doubt.

What are the implications of the revelation of this recent figure for the future? Were there major causes for this decline that we can pinpoint on hindsight?

Will this recent figure continue to plunge, stay put or will it show an upsurge as a result of, hopefully renewed reforestation? That, only time will show. What are the implications ?

• The most serious implication, perhaps, is that the country's ecological health is in considerable doubt and so far has been impoverished.

• How much genetic diversity has been lost is any body's guess. Any figure anybody gives should have equal plausibility.

• A great deal of the country's wildlife that lived in the forest that we were told has perished must also have, in all probability, done so . The landscape or more precisely the hills and mountains that the forest gave cover to are now bare.

• The regulated flow of water that the vegetation provided is no longer there, and therefore floods and soil erosion downstream have become commonplace.

All in all, the implication don't augur well and accretion of wreckage have been left behind Possible causes for the destruction : Here, it is only possible to give the really serious ones.

Let us assume that deforestation in the country is not just a recent phenomenon but that it started several generations back. If that is the case, every generation must have had its unique way of taking on their forest resources for whatever reason.

Don't please count out senseless or wanton destruction as important cause. To be fair to the unfortunate poor, don't count out deforestation out of desperation or out of " dire vital needs".

But let's not get it all wrong and think that it is only the poor that cut trees. Fast bucks, and plenty of it can be made out of valuable old-growth forests such as Zigba.

The large number of sawmills that existed on the periphery of the forest areas explained the extent of the lucre to be had. People that needed land in every age and had it only in the wake of burned forest have to be counted, too.

What does the future hold ? Who could forecast the future! One worst case scenario is that the tendency to deforest would continue until we have zero, in the real sense of the word, forest resources. The opposite, optimistic scenario is that we could turn things round: Keep the present natural forest untouched for their genes, aesthetics and ecological benefit and begin to plant trees in mass like our lives depended on it.

There is so much valuable experience to learn from the whole wide world of to-day. We only need the commitment.

Soil conservation and afforestation don't need much money. In fact, these might be the only two endeavours poor countries can do without applying to the World Bank.