Countdown to Armageddon
1990
The long awaited (and long-feared, in some circles) reunification of Germany becomes reality in October. The four power conferences (representing the United States, the United Kingdom, the USSR, and France) that recognize the inevitable, also guarantee Poland's territorial integrity. As a part of the agreement, NATO troops will maintain a presence in the newly unified republic (the only way some European nations will agree to the deed). The newly united Germany renounces any territorial claims outside of its post-WWII boundaries, but asserts continued interest in the welfare of ethnic Germans living outside of Germany. Membership in German ethnic organizations in western Poland grows, particularly in Silesia, where the floundering efforts of the new (non-communist) Polish government to convert from a controlled to a free economy result is only a partial success.
Poland attempts to negotiate a border treaty with Byelorussia, but is rebuffed and the official Byelorussia statement describes the city of Bialystok as "occupied" by Poland. Later in the year, Rumania refuses a summit offer by Hungary to discuss the condition of ethnic Hungarians living in Rumania. By the end of the year, Soviet troop withdrawals are under way from Germany, Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia.
1991
In March, both Croatia and Slovenia secede from Yugoslavia, and Bosnia-Herzegovina follows in short order. Violence soon broke out between the Serb-dominated federal governments and the militias of the breakaway states. Ethnic and religious violence in the Central Asian republics of the Soviet Union escalates, and the Soviet Union increases its troop withdrawal schedule in order to use the forces inside its own borders. Fighting is particularly heavy between Armenians and Azeris in the enclave of Nagorno Karabak. As the republics seize greater autonomy, Gorbachev continued to vacillate between an all-out drive for reform and an all-out commitment to a strong central government in the old style. The result is an accelerating slide toward chaos.
On July 1 the old Warsaw Pact is formally abolished, the last straw for many Moscow hard-liners. In August the hard-liners seize power in a bloody coup. On August 19, elements of the Taman Guards and Kantemir Motor Rifle Divisions move into the center of Moscow and seize the most important public buildings and radio stations. An eight-member Emergency Committee deposes Gorbachev (for "reasons of health") and bans strikes, protests, or public assemblies. Defiant protesters gather at the Soviet Parliament building, along with a few dissident military units and a cadre of armed Afghan War veterans, to defend Yeltsin and the Parliament. On August 20, elements of the Kantemir Division, spearheaded by the elite KGB "Alpha Team", storm the Parliament building and scatter the protesters. Russian President Yeltsin, along with an estimated 800 others, die in the assault.
With Yeltsin dead and Gorbachev imprisoned in the Crimea, acting Soviet President Yanayev declares the establishment of a "renewal government." The governments of Byelorussia, Ukraine, and the Baltic States (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia) denounce the new government as illegal and declare the Soviet Union to be dissolved.
1992
After early successes in holding down the Central Asian unrest, the Soviets suffer several major setbacks. TASS accuses Iran of supplying arms to rebels in Central Asia and Caucasus. Bloody fighting continues, with Islamic fundamentalist insurgents growing in strength. Late in the year, some Western observers begin to use the term "civil war" in referring to the Central Asian unrest. There are also continued riots in the Baltic States, but beefed up contingents of MVD (Internal Security) troops maintain a semblance of order. The Soviet Republic of Moldavia, made up largely of ethnic Rumanians, is torn by riots and strikes demanding political autonomy and an eventual union with Rumania. Riots are suppressed by Soviet MVD troops and Moscow accuses Rumania of having secretly encourages the unrest. In the fall, the Rumanian government announces the arrest of five KGB operatives who, they claim, have been encouraging unrest among Rumania's Hungarian minority.
In the United States, widespread perceptions of a lack of effective Republican leadership on the drug and trade front, and the foot-dragging on military demobilization, lead to the election of John Tanner (a Democrat from California). Tanner's Vice President, Deanna Pemberton (former representative from Ohio), is the first woman to hold such a high elective office.
1993
After several years on intensive investment in the eastern third of the country, Germany shows little signs of economic progress. Radical right wing political organizations swell in membership while skinhead violence against foreign workers and handicapped Germans escalates. Germany's governments responds to the threat weakly, seeming to compromise with the right, and passes a strict series of immigration laws which are widely compared to the Nazi "race laws" of the 1930s.
Fighting in Central Asia continues for most of the year, but the Soviet military gradually begins to gain the upper hand, and regains control of most of the cities of the region. A guerrilla war continues in the countryside, and many veterans of the fighting in Afghanistan a decade before find themselves fighting a very similar campaign.
Sporadic antigovernment rioting in Pyongyang and other large cities force the North Korean government to make further concessions toward a free market economy. Fighting continues in the former republics of Yugoslavia and becomes increasingly bitter. There is now no talk of reunifying the country; instead ethnic groups fight for as large a slice of territory as possible, and deal ruthlessly with the people of other ethnic groups living in their regions. The lucky ones become refugees.
1994
In China, underground pro-democracy organizations, with encouragement and financial aid from relatives in other countries, begin demonstrating in many of China's larger cities. While these remain relatively peaceful for a while, they soon erupt into violence, forcing military intervention. Better prepared than the students of 1989, the pro-democracy factions of the northeast hold out for months before the military manages to restore order. Elsewhere, things settle down more quickly. Some regional military commanders, increasingly mistrustful of the ability of the local government to maintain order, begin taking matters into their own hands, seizing direct control of local government and imprisoning government officials. Within a year, many regions are effectively ruled by military commanders, modern versions of China's traditional warlords.
Researchers in France and the US begin testing a vaccine which shows every sign of being effective against the HIV virus. Researchers soon yield to demands for an accelerated testing program and US FDA waives animal tests in favor of immediate large scale human experimentation. Still, it will be several years before pharmaceutical firms can gear up to produce the vaccine in sufficient quantities to deal with the massive outbreaks of the disease in third world countries (those hardest hit). Central Africa in particular is facing complete collapse of its health care system under an avalanche of AIDS victims and many health care professionals leave the region out of fear for their own lives.
1995
However, the Chinese surpass the expectations of most military analysts in their ability to mobilize reserves from the interior and shift them to the fighting front. While the Soviets continue to make impressive gains, their losses mount and the tempo of advance slows. Soon, large bodies of citizens' militia are operating in the rear areas, attacking installations and destroying supply convoys. More and more front line troops have to be detailed to mopping up these patches of guerrilla resistance, and the advance grinds to a halt.
When the main Chinese conventional forces counterattack, to the amazement of the world's military experts, large pockets of Soviet troops are formed. Most of the Soviet units, due to their superior mobility and tremendous firepower, are able to fight their way out of the pockets, but Soviet losses are great and the front is shattered. The Soviet Union had already been mobilizing additional troops from the western military districts, and this is now placed on an emergency priority basis. But the Far East has become a meat grinder, which devours divisions as quickly as they can be committed. Motor vehicles and railroad rolling stock are increasingly drawn out of the civilian sector to support the war effort. As the first snows of winter fall, military units in Byelorussia and the Ukraine declare their support for the separatists governments which had been suppressed two years earlier.
In response to increasing regional instabilities Germany declares its agreement on size and location of armed forces "obsolete in relation to the current European situation." The six eastern territorial brigades are immediately expanded to weak divisions while the original nine divisions are expanded to 12, the additional troops being provided by mobilization of reserve units from the western part of the country. Poland protests, begins bringing several divisions in western Poland to higher readiness states, and opens secret talks with Byelorussia (now renamed Belarus). These talks quickly break down over the status of the border city of Bialystok, however, and Belarus publicly announces that Poland had attempted to involve it in a "military adventure" against Germany.
In Rumania, antigovernment demonstrations by Magyars (ethnic Hungarians) in several Transylvanian cities are suppressed by Rumanian riot control police, with some loss of life. The Hungarian government protests the mistreatment of these people at the hands of what they claimed is an increasingly genocidal government. Several days of anti-Turkish rioting in Bulgaria are touched off when a Bulgarian national, arrested for attempting to assassinate the president of the Turkish republic, dies in custody. Despite Turkish protestations that his death was from natural causes, the incident soon assumes crisis proportions, and Turkish citizens are advised to leave Bulgaria. Later in the year, United Nations peace-keeping forces are sent to Sri Lanka to intervene in the civil war there.
1996
With an uncertain Germany to the west and an increasingly aggressive Belarus to the east, Poland opens secret talks with Moscow. Within months these result in the public signing of a mutual defense agreements between the Soviet Union, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, and the Czech republic. The treaty is signed in Warsaw and is officially called the Treaty on Collective Security. The world calls it the New Warsaw Pact.
Surrounded by enemies, Belarus resistance quickly collapses and, to the shock of the West, it is partitioned by Poland and the Soviets. As Poland prepares to move divisions into the former territory of Belarus for occupation duty, seven ethnic German soldiers in the division announce their intention to resist transfer out of the country. A wave of demonstrations in western Poland by ethnic Germans supporting the seven soldiers is violently suppressed by riot police, resulting in several deaths and numerous injuries. Germany protests and moves several divisions closer to the border.
In June a small group of senior officers of the German Army, as well as at least one German cabinet minister, open secret talks with the leadership of several German ethnic organizations in eastern Poland. Shortly thereafter, another round of demonstrations break out and are again violently suppressed. This time, however, small groups of demonstrators fight back with military small arms. Polish army units move in and soon Pomerania and Silesia appear to be in the grips of a civil war. Poland charges that many of the rebels are German right-wing nationalists who have crossed the border with the collaboration of the German Army. Berlin denies any involvement with rioters, but admits that it is possible that German nationals have crossed into Poland, and German military units move closer to the border to step up security.
In mid-July there are several border incidents between units of the Polish and German armies and frequent exchanges of artillery fire. On July 27th elements of the German III Corps cross the frontier in retaliation for what they describe as a "full-scale attack" by the Polish 4th Mechanized Division. Within two days Poland and Germany are officially at war. From the very beginning this is a "come as you are" war; neither side is adequately prepared. The German Army has just finished a period of very rapid growth and rebuilding, many of its units being equipped with tanks and vehicles which have sat idle in warehouses for four or five years. The Poles and Soviets are at the end of several years of very limited military spending capped by a war in the east which has drawn off much of their best equipment already. The Poles are supported by the three Soviet divisions still stationed in Poland as part of the New Warsaw Pact joint command, but are still outnumbered by the Germans.
What tips the balance against the Germans is the entry of the Czech Army in the war on the side of the NWP. By the end of November, the Bundeswehr is in serious trouble. Soviet Frontal Aviation has left their most modern aircraft in the west; these are qualitatively and quantitatively a match for the Luftwaffe. The Czech Army finally cracks the line of German reservists holding the southern flank and cuts north into Germany itself, closing on Berlin. Heady with victory, the Warsaw Pact leadership announces their intention to occupy and repartition Germany as a guarantee against future aggression.
Claiming that their actions were justified by the military provocation of Poland and that they now face dismemberment as a state, Germany turns to its NATO partners for assistance. While the political leadership of the European members of NATO debate the prudence of intervention, the US Army crosses the frontier. Within a week France, Belgium, Italy and Greece first demand that US troops withdraw to their start line and (when these demands have no effect) withdraw from NATO in protest. British and Canadian forces cross the border however, while Danish and Dutch troops remain in place, still partners in NATO but not a party to war.
In the far north, Soviet troops make a bid for quick victory in northern Norway. Most of the best Arctic-equipped divisions have already been sent east, however, and the third-line troops available are unable to break through to the paratroopers and marines landed in NATO's rear areas. As crack British commandos and US Marines join the battle, the front line moves east again toward the Soviet naval facilities on the Kola Peninsula, and the elite Soviet paratroopers and marines are isolated and destroyed.
At sea, the Red Banner Northern Fleet sorties and attempts to break through the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom Gap into the north Atlantic. For three weeks the opposing fleets hammer each other, but the western fleet comes out on top, badly bloodied but victorious. Eighty percent of the Soviet northern fleet surface tonnage rests on the bottom of the Norwegian and North seas. Scattered commerce raiders break out however, and by year's end are wreaking havoc on NATO convoys bringing reinforcements, ammunition, and equipment across the Atlantic.
When Rumanian police shoot and kill a man crossing the border between Hungary and Rumania, the Hungarian government suspends diplomatic relations. The Rumanians claim he was a smuggler, bringing arms to antigovernment forces. Three days later, Hungarian army spies or Rumanian government provocateurs (depending on which side you believe) blow up a Rumanian railway station in Cluj. The Rumanians conduct mass arrests of Magyars throughout Rumania. Police sweeps are met with armed resistance and within a week a secessionist Magyar government declares its independence from Rumania. As Rumanian troops move north to crush the rebellion, the Hungarian government protests, is ignored, and then (with its allies) declares war.
As Hungarian, Bulgarian, and Soviet troops cross the border, Rumania formally declares war on the three invading nations, and appeals to NATO for assistance. The first nation to rally to Rumania's assistance is her neighbor, the Ukraine. Within 24 hours, three divisions and five brigades cross into Rumania and two days later are at the front under Rumanian command, where they are joined by a Serbian expeditionary force. The Ukraine also recognizes the incorporation of Moldavia into Rumania. NATO responds shortly thereafter with the offer of full membership in the alliance to both nations, which they accept. More concrete assistance takes the form of the Turkish 1st Army, which launches its offensive against a thin Bulgarian covering force in Thrace on Christmas Eve.
In July, the Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) guerrillas take advantage of the international chaos to make a bid for control of Peru. They do not succeed in overthrowing the government, but they do succeed in wrestling about half of the country from central control. Other South and Central American countries experience varying degrees of political instability.
1997
During January, continuing Turkish successes in Bulgaria spark a wave of patriotism in the Turks, particularly since Greece has remained neutral in the war. On Cyprus, unoccupied and supposedly reunited for three years, the Turkish Cypriots demonstrated in favor of Turkey. The demonstrations turn into anti-Greek riots, and the Cypriot Army moves to restore order. In response, the Turkish Army invades Cyprus and quickly occupies most of the island. Greece first sends military units to Cyprus to resist the Turks and then declares war on Turkey and attacks the Turkish forces in Thrace.
In late February, the socialist governments of Italy and Greece conclude a mutual defense pact. While Italy is not obligated by the pact to enter the Greek-Turkish war, the Italian government declares to war to be a regional conflict unrelated to the more general war raging elsewhere, promising to intervene of Greece's side if NATO tries to tip the balance in Turkey's favor. Within a week, Greece declares a naval blockade against Turkey and warns the world's shipping that the Aegean is now considered a war zone.
In an attempt to restore the situation in Germany, Soviet and Czech troops return to the offensive in southern Germany but do not have the strength to make any significant gains. With the coming of spring, the NATO offensive gains momentum and in April the first German troops cross the frontier into Poland. By June 17th Warsaw is surrounded, and Polish army units and the citizens of the city prepare for a siege.
By late spring, NATO's Atlantic Fleet has hunted down the last of the Soviet commerce raiders, and the surviving attack carriers and missile cruisers move to northern waters. The NATO drive in the north has bogged down on the banks of the Litsa River, but the Northern Front commander now contemplates a bold move to destroy the remnants of Soviet naval power there. While US and British units attempt a rapid outflanking move through northern Finland, the NATO Atlantic Fleet will close in on Murmansk and Severomorsk, subjecting the Soviet fleet anchorage's and air bases to a massive bombardment. On June 7th the ground offensive is launched and the fleet closes in on the Kola Peninsula shortly thereafter.
Finland had been expected to offer token resistance to the violation of its territory; instead the Finnish Army fights tenaciously, seriously delaying the flanking move. At sea the plan fares even worse, as coastal missile boats and the remnants of Northern Fleet's shore-based naval aviation inflict crippling losses on the NATO fleet. By mid-June the last major naval fleet-in-being in the world has been shattered.
In the south, the front in Rumania stabilizes and enters a period of attritional warfare. Soviet mobilization-only divisions, largely leg-mobile and stiffened with a sprinkling of obsolete tanks and armored personnel carriers, enter the lines. Although the Rumanians prove better soldiers that the over-aged and ill-trained Soviet recruits, the manpower difference begins to be felt.
The best Soviet troops are shipped further south to Bulgaria, and by May have managed to halt the Turkish drive. As Greek pressure on the Turkish left flank in Thrace builds, unit after Turkish unit is shifted to face the Greeks. It becomes clear that, without aid, the Turkish Army will have to fall back or be defeated.
On June 27th, a NATO convoy of fast transports and cargo ships, accompanied by a strong covering force, attempts the run to the Turkish port of Izmir with badly needed ammunition and equipment. Light fleet elements of the Greek Navy intercept the convoy and, in a confused night action off Izmir, inflict substantial losses and escape virtually unharmed. Two days later, NATO retaliates with air strikes against Greek naval bases. On July 1st Greece declares war against the NATO nations, and Italy, in compliance with her treaty obligations, follows suit on the 2nd.
In early July, Italian airmobile and alpine units cross the passes into Tyrolia. Scattered elements of the Austrian Army resist briefly but are overwhelmed. By mid-month, Italian mechanized forces are debauching from the Alpine passes into southern Germany, and their advanced elements are in combat against German territorial troops in the suburbs of Munich.
The Italian Army enjoys tremendous success in the first month of its involvement in the war, primarily for logistical reasons. Most of its opponents have already been at war for six months or more. Their peacetime stocks of munitions and replacement vehicles had not yet been depleted, and their industries had not yet geared up to wartime production. The Italians have intact peacetime stockpiles to draw on. As summer turns to fall, however, the Italians too begin to feel the logistical pinch, aggravated by the increasing flow of munitions and equipment from the factories of their opponents.
In Asia, pro-Soviet India and anti-Soviet Pakistan drift into war through an escalating spiral of border incidents, mobilization, and major armed clashes. Outright war begins in the spring, and by mid-year the Indian Army is slowly advancing across the length of the front, despite fierce resistance.
By early July, NATO advanced elements are closing up on the Polish-Soviet frontier in the central region, while continuing the siege of Pact-held Warsaw. The Polish government in exile establishes its temporary capital in the city of Poznan, and asserts its claim to the pre-1939 Polish borders in the east. In the Far East, Pact forces begin major withdrawals all along the front, and the mobile elements of the Chinese Army begin a victorious pursuit.
On July 9th, with advanced elements of the 1st German Army on Soviet soil, the Soviets begin using tactical nuclear weapons. In the West they are used sparingly at first, and for the first week are used only against troop concentrations no further than 50 kilometers from the Soviet border. In the Far East, however, they are used on a massive scale. Chinese mechanized columns are vaporized, caught in the open on the roads in imagined pursuit. Strike aircraft deliver warheads on the northern Chinese pollution and industrial centers still in Chinese hands. The Chinese response is immediate, but Soviet forward troop units are dispersed and well prepared. Ballistic missile attacks on Soviet population centers are frustrated by an active and efficient ABM system, and the Soviet Air Defense Command massacres the handful of Chinese bombers that attempted low-level penetration raids. Within a week, the Chinese riposte is spent, but Soviet attacks continue. The Chinese communication and transportation systems, already stretched to the breaking point, disintegrates. The roads are choked with refugees fleeing from the remaining cities, all of the potential targets. China begins the rapid slide into anarchy and civil disorder.
On the western front, the forward elements of both armies on the Soviet-Polish frontier are hit hard by tactical nuclear strikes, as NATO matched the Warsaw Pact warhead for warhead. By late August, the first of the Soviet divisions released from the Far East enter the lines. Although the front lines are fluid everywhere, they begin moving gradually west.
On September 15th, the siege of Warsaw is lifted, and a week later Czech and Italian troops begin a renewed offensive in southern Germany. The southern offensive gains momentum, and NATO forces in Poland increase the rate of their withdrawal, practicing a scorched earth policy as they fell back. At the same time, advancing Warsaw Pact forces occupy Slovakia and force its reincorporating with the Czech Republic.
The Soviet and Bulgarian forces in Thrace also begin a major offensive against the Turks in September. The one-sided use of tactical nuclear weapons breaks the stalemate, and by month's end Bulgarian tank brigades are racing towards Istanbul. Simultaneously, Greek and Albanian troops launched a drive against southern Serbia, and the Serb expeditionary force in Rumania is recalled for home defense. But before it can return Beograd has fallen to the Italian mechanized columns. At the same time, the limited use of tactical nuclear weapons, in the increasing numbers of Soviet reserves, and the withdrawal of the Yugoslavians cause the Rumanian front to collapse. As Warsaw Pact columns sweep through both countries, isolated military units withdraw into the mountains and begin to wage a guerrilla war. In the west, NATO air units begin making deep nuclear strikes against communication hubs in Czechoslovakia and Poland in an attempt to slow the Warsaw Pact advance. The Pact responds with similar strikes against German industrial targets and major port cities. NATO's theater nuclear missiles are launched against an array of industrial targets and port cities in the western Soviet Union. Throughout October the exchanges continue, escalating gradually. Fearful of a general strategic exchange, neither side targets the land-based ICBMs of the other, or launches so many warheads at once as to risk convincing the other side that an all-out attack is in progress. Neither side wishes to cross the threshold to nuclear oblivion in one bold step, and so they inch across it, never quite knowing they have done so until after the fact.
First, military targets are hit (including the first decapitation strikes at US targets). Then, industrial targets clearly vital to the war effort, followed by economic targets of military importance (transportation and communications, oil fields, and refineries). Then major industrial and oil centers in neutral nations are targeted, to prevent their possible use by the other side. Numerous warheads are aimed at logistical stockpiles and command-control centers of the armies in the field. The civilian political command structure is first decimated, then eliminated (almost by accident in some cases). The exchanges continue, fitfully and irregularly, through November and then gradually peter out.
Pakistan and India wage their own nuclear war. Facing defeat, Pakistan launches a preemptive strike on India's economy and nuclear strike force. Although industrial centers are hit hard, enough of India's nuclear arsenal survive to launch a devastating retaliatory strike. The Indian-Pakistani war soon winds down, as each country's economy no longer can feed its civilians, let alone supply military units.
1998
With the spring thaw, the unburied dead finally bring on the epidemics the few remaining medical professionals had dreaded but were powerless to prevent. Plague, typhoid, cholera, typhus, and many other diseases sweep through the world's population. By the time they have run their courses, the global casualty rate will be 50%.
In Europe, France and Belgium had been hit the lightest and stand virtually alone in maintaining a semblance of internal order throughout the cataclysm. As refugees begin flooding across their borders, the French and Belgian governments close their frontiers, and military units begin turning back refugees with gunfire. The French governments authorizes the army to move to the Rhine to secure a solid geographical barrier. As the refugees pile up on the French and Belgian frontiers, a large lawless zone springs into existence. Open fighting for food is followed by mass starvation and disease, until the lawless zone becomes barren and empty.
The average strength of NATO combat divisions at the front has fallen to about 8,000, with US divisions running about half of that. Warsaw Pact divisions now varied widely in strength, running from 500 to 10,000 effectives, but mostly in the 2000-4000 range. Lack of fuel, spare parts, and ammunition temporarily paralyze the armies. Peace might have come, but there are no surviving governments to negotiate it. Only the military command structures remain intact, and they remain faithful to the final orders of their governments. In a time of almost universal famine, only the military as the means of securing and distributing rations. Military casualties have been much lower than casualties among the civilians.
In the Balkans, the partisan bands in the mountains of Rumania and former Yugoslavia have escaped almost untouched, while many Pact regular units have been destroyed in the exchange or have just melted away after it. The Rumanians and Serbs begin forming regular combat units again, although still structured to live off the land and subsist from captured enemy equipment. At first, there is a great deal of enemy equipment just lying around waiting to be picked up.
There are border changes as well. The Italian Army delineates the borders of Croatia, Serbia, and Slovenia, while the Greek Army directly annexes Macedonia. The Albanians claim Kosovo province, but both Greece and Italy support Serbia's claim to the area. Albania first protests, then withdraws from the temporary alliance, and finally begins sporadic attacks on Greek military units. They are joined by ethnic Albanian partisan units from Macedonia and Kosovo. At the same time, many Italian and Hungarian units are withdrawn from the Balkans and shifted to Czechoslovakia and southern Germany.
In North America, a flood of hungry refugees begins to cross the Rio Grande, and most of the remaining military forces of the United States are deployed to the southwest to deal with the mounting crisis. They move at the orders of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the de facto government of the United States. Widespread food riots and violence in refugee areas are met with military force. The Mexican government protests, and within months Mexican Army units cross the Rio Grande to protect Mexican lives. More US units are shifted south. Scattered fighting grows into open warfare, and Mexican armored columns drive northeast toward Arkansas and northwest into southern California. Elsewhere in the US civil disorder and anarchy increase with the withdrawal of army units.
In late June, the Pact forces in southern Germany renew their offensive in an attempt to seize the scattered surviving industrial sites in central Germany. Actually, the most intact parts of Germany were those areas in the south which has been under Pact occupation, as neither side was willing to strike the area heavily. Galvanized into renewed action, NATO forces made a maximum effort to reform a coherent front, and the Pact offensive finally stalls along a line from Frankfurt to Fulda. In late August, NATO launches its own offensive from the area of Karl Marx Stadt, driving south to penetrate the Pact rear areas in Czechoslovakia. The thinly spread Czech border guard units are quickly overwhelmed and Pact forces in central Germany begin a precipitous withdrawal to Czechoslovakia, laying waste to southern Germany as they retreat.
A simultaneous offensive by the remnants of the Yugoslavian Army drives north in an attempt to link up with NATO. The Yugoslavians are halted near Lake Balaton, however, and then thrown back.
As more Pact units arrive in Czechoslovakia, the NATO drive runs out of steam and loses its sense of direction. Troops are shifted west to garrison the recaptured but devastated south of Germany, and many lives are wasted in a futile attempt to force the Alpine passes into Italy. As the autumnal rains begin, NATO and the Pact initiate a short and weak second nuclear exchange, directed primarily at surviving industrial centers in the United Kingdom and Italy. Fighting gradually runs down to the level of local skirmishing as both sides prepare for another winter.
1999
(Although Cummings' decision will later be widely criticized, there is much validity to his position. Many congressional seats are disputed; several of the congressmen in attendance are merely self-appointed local strongmen who have gained control of large parts of the old congressional districts, and some have never seen the districts they purport to represent. There is at least one confirmed gunfight between rival claimants to a seat while Congress is in session.)
General Cummings declares a continuation of martial law until such time as a new census is practical, that being necessary for a meaningful reapportionment of congressional seats and presidential electoral votes. President Broward responds with a demand for Cummings' resignation, which Cummings declines to submit. While some military units side with the new civilian government, the majority continue to take orders from the Joint Chiefs, particularly those overseas, for two simple reasons. First, the habit of obedience is deeply ingrained, and, in many cases, is all that has allowed units to survive thus far. Second, the Joint Chiefs control virtually all surviving telecommunications networks.
In North America, the main effect of the split is a further erosion of central authority. Forced to choose between two rival governments, both with considerable flaws in their claims to legitimacy, many localities simply choose to ignore both.
The surviving foreign and national organizations dealing or concerned with the United States choose between the rival governments. The German military government and the Polish government in exile continue relations with the Joint Chiefs, while the partisan commands of Yugoslavia and Rumania recognize the civilian government. The remnants of the CIA obey the orders of the civilian government, while the National Security Agency, loyal to the Joint Chiefs, organize a field operations branch to replace the CIA "defectors". Officially, forces of the two governments refrain from violent confrontation, but there are sporadic local clashes over key installations, occasional bloody coups within military units, and numerous assassinations and "dirty tricks" by rival intelligence agencies.
In the autumn the dispatch of troops to Europe resumes, although only as a trickle. A few warships are available as escorts, and various old merchant vessels are pressed into service as transports. Initiated by the civilian government, both governments briefly compete in a struggle to outdo the other, viewing success as a litmus test of their ability to mobilize the nation. In fact, the call-ups affect only the Atlantic coast and lead to widespread resistance. The dispatch of troops, supplies, and equipment to Europe makes little sense to most, considering the appalling state of affairs in the United States.
The actual reinforcements sent include a small number of light vehicles and ammunition, but consist mostly of light infantry. Mortars are becoming the most popular support weapon for troops, as they can be turned out in quantity from small machine shops and garages.
In Europe, the fronts are static for most of the year. Low troop densities mean that infiltration raids become the most common form of warfare. The "front" ceased to be a line and becomes a deep occupied zone, as troops settle into areas and begin farming and small-scale manufacturing to meet their supply requirements. Local civilians are hired to farm and carry out many administrative functions in return for security from the increasing number of marauders roaming the countryside. In other areas, with security the military unit provides to its civilians was from the unit itself, a post-nuclear version of the ancient "protection" racket. Many units stationed in barren areas drift apart or turn to marauding when supplies do not arrive. Although most attacks by large bodies of marauders are directed at areas held by "the enemy", they begin to be directed at "allied" units as well, though at first not against units of the same nationality.
The effects of the chaos ensuing from the destruction of world trade and the death of a sizable portion of the population are felt globally. Central Africa is hit particularly hard, as the war cuts off production and shipment of the HIV anti-virus just as the AIDS active infection rate tops 50%. No territory though, however remote, remains untouched by the war. Even scientific stations in Antarctica and orbiting space laboratories, are abandoned as the war drags on.
2000
In early summer, the German Third Army, spearheaded by the US Eleventh Corps, moves out of its cantonments on what is to become one of the last strategic offensives of the war.