The Metropolitan Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study:
A Doom's Day Scenario
The Metropolitan Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) cites “many
research studies indicating that active phases of the Marikina Valley Faults are approaching and that estimated magnitude will be around 7
or higher. It also raised the possible intensity from 7 to even 9, which could be devastating.”
The study virtually painted a doom's day scenario of a Marikina Fault
earthquake that is sure to happen! It projected a "big" earthquake that is "unlike any tragedy seen or imagined in Metro
Manila" claiming that 35,000 Metro Manila residents would die and up to three million others would have to be evacuated. The
study said that some 175,000 buildings would be damaged, and continued to say that the pressure of collapsed buildings and the inability to
rescue those who would be trapped inside would cause most of the deaths.
The seismic intensity generated by a Marikina Valley Fault earthquake and the
damage that could be felt in an area varies from place to place. The intensity can range from 7 in Quezon City, almost 8 and 9 alongside
Marikina River and Manila Bay, and 8 at west of Metropolitan Manila and 7 in other areas. Based on the Philvocs Earthquake Intensity Scale
(PEIS), intensity 7 is “destructive,” intensity 8 is “very destructive” and intensity 9 would be “devastating.”
Aside from the estimated death toll, a
Marikina Valley Fault earthquake would cause injuries to 118,200 persons, the study continued. The death toll would be higher if the
earthquake occurs during office hours where most of employees are working inside buildings, including people who come from the province to
transact various matters in the metropolis.
A Manila Trench earthquake, on the other hand, is expected to
destroy about 5,000 buildings, and another 16,000 could be destroyed in the Manila Bay fault. The Marikina Valley Fault earthquake will
cause the collapse of buildings in northeastern Quezon City, western Marikina, eastern Pasig, Muntinlupa-Laguna Bay and Mandaluyong-Makati.
Evacuation would be difficult in the perimeter of the metropolis particularly in the north, Taguig and Las Piñas, the MMEIRS study also
found.
The MMEIRS estimates the number of
refugees or evacuees at three million, which will include victims of fires and liquefaction caused by the earthquake. The figure would
include 1.3 million persons who would be uprooted from their homes if the aftershock would last about seven days.
Liquefaction could cause a possible regional separation of Metro Manila, with
the western part of the metropolis isolated from its other parts. The same thing would happen to the northern and southern parts due to
building collapse especially in the area intersecting Makati and Mandaluyong. Meanwhile, all road networks running east-west that are on the
fault would be broken, the study concluded.
Other infrastructures such as bridges
and power posts will also be destroyed. Collapses would lead to electrical short circuit, petroleum and LPG
leakages from storage tanks, among others, would cause fire. The study identified the areas highly vulnerable to fire as Valenzuela,
Caloocan, and south of Quezon City west intersection.
The Angat reservoir and water
purification plant would likely be damaged, causing a long-term stoppage in water supply. Public transportation facilities such as airport
runways would be closed, leaving only helicopters available for operations. Ports in the North and South harbors would be damaged and tilted
by liquefaction, making these inaccessible for loading and unloading. Damages would likely be expected on roads and bridges.
Residential buildings around Malacañan
Palace in Manila and the House of Representatives in Quezon City would be severely damaged.
The danger of spreading fire to the Malacañan presidential office is not ruled out. Liquefaction around the Batasang Pambansa Complex
might take place. Even the MMDA building would be severely damaged, the study adds.
(Excalibur News)
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