Permintaan dan Penyediaan Energi Berdasarkan Kondisi Perekonomian di Indonesia dengan Menggunakan Model Nonlinear Programming
(Nonlinear Programming Model of Energy Demand and Supply with Considering Economy Condition in Indonesia)

Abstract

Energy demand and supply model is developed using combination of top-down and bottom-up paradigm. Mathematically, the model is represented as a nonlinear programming problem and solved using GAMS software. The model is implemented to forecast energy demand and supply in Indonesia from the year 2000 until 2030. Using personal computer with Pentium 200 MHz processor, the problem is solved in 3 minutes. Two scenarios were built to analyze the output, i.e. NOK scenario for a condition if there is no economic crisis and BAU scenario for the current situation with economic crisis. Output of the model shows that under NOK scenario energy demand grow with 4.3 % per year and with BAU scenario the growth is only 2.9 % per year. Coal is a main energy supply to fulfill the demand if there is no economic crisis. Under the current situation, natural gas and coal have a big share for primary energy supplies.