Energy Supply Optimization with Considering the Economic Crisis in Indonesia

Abstract

     The economic crisis that has hit Indonesia since middle 1997 has decreased the economic growth. Industrial sector has decreasing production capacity and energy demand. Due to that condition, energy demand and supply projection that conducted before 1997 is not accurate anymore and need to be updated. This paper discusses energy supply projection using optimization method with considering the economic crisis. The Markal model is used to make the optimization. In the model, optimization problem was formulated as an energy system network. Based on this network, linear programming matrix is constructed. The objective function of the model is minimizing total production cost of energy. The model is solved by GAMS software using personal computer.
     Optimization results show that coal will be main energy supply for the future because of abundant of coal resources. Share of coal utilization as primary energy will increase from 9 % in the current year to 34 % in the year 2025. Oil will also have a role as a primary energy because oil fuel in transportation sector is not easy to substitute by other fuels.