BN win in Sanggang is not cut and dried

BN win in Sanggang is not cut and dried

With signs pointing to a close result, Umno has brought in its big guns and changed its tactics to try and counter PAS efforts to win the key by-election

NEWS ANALYSIS By BRENDAN PEREIRA MALAYSIA CORRESPONDENT

For the past week, the weather has been more predictable than ground sentiment in Sanggang, where a key by-election will be held on Saturday.

The prognosis over the weekend was bleak for the Barisan Nasional.

Reports from the ruling coalition's operations rooms and a household count of voters suggested that retaining the constituency, which has been in its grip since independence, would be tough.

The cavalry was called in immediately.

Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Badawi stayed overnight in the sleepy hollow, two hours' drive east of Kuala Lumpur, and campaigned non-stop.

He reached deep into the constituency to visit modest village homes and spoke to farmers late into the night.

A day later, Umno Youth chief Datuk Hishammuddin Tun Hussein led a team from the youth wing into several areas identified as PAS strongholds. They worked the ground and even stopped to shake hands with supporters from the opposition party.

Their efforts have seen the pall of gloom in the BN camp lift slightly over the past 48 hours.

The forecast now is that Mr Redzwan Harun of Umno will defeat Datuk Hishammudin Yahya of PAS by a slim margin.

The ruling coalition expects to take between 70 and 80 per cent of the 5,000 Chinese vote and 3,000 of the Malay vote.

A caution, though. The pendulum could swing either way before Saturday.

The reason: A segment of the 9,000 Malay voters remains undecided on who to vote for.

Their uncertainty is evident from their body language. They smile and are courteous to politicians from both camps, but offer no other clues as to where their votes will go.

An Umno Youth executive council member said: "There is no hostility towards us. In fact, many of the people here are our members. But that was also the case in Terengganu."

After being under the control of the coalition for 40 years, the east coast state fell into the hands of PAS at the last general election.

A major factor for the defeat was the fact that many Umno members either voted for the opposition or did not turn out to vote, depriving the ruling party of several thousand votes in each of the 32 constituencies.

Like in Terengganu, PAS is playing hardball in Sanggang. Apart from distributing hundreds of copies of photographs of a jolly Pahang Mentri Besar Datuk Adnan Yaakob showing an obscene gesture, the Islamic fundamentalist party has also been circulating letters condemning the adulterous ways of a Cabinet minister -- tactics designed to reinforce its claim that Umno leaders are immoral and unIslamic.

At the same time, the party has co-opted university students to go from house to house bearing this message: Government leaders are corrupt and must be rejected.

Umno politicians are concerned over the effect the undergraduates will have on the rural voters, aware that students played a major role in influencing voters in Kelantan during the general election.

Umno has tried to tweak the strategy and image to meet the PAS threat.

There are no more rallies or convoys of expensive cars making tracks on village roads.

The emphasis is on visiting homes, spending time and trying to convince the 6,000 Umno members who live in the constituency that they should not desert the party.

Party members have also been told to cut out loud talk, dress simply and leave the swagger at home.

Party leaders feel that a victory, especially by a bigger margin than the general election, will give Umno members the belief that PAS has not sewn up the Malay vote.