* CLASH EXPECTED
* THE DANGER TO THE STATE OF ISRAEL

CLASH EXPECTED
(Courtesy of Arutz 7) June, 2000
The IDF's operative assumption is that an armed clash with the Palestinians is very likely in the coming months. (See our Special Insert following this report, detailing the dangers of such a clash following the giveaway of almost all of Judea and Samaria.) Arutz-7 correspondent Haggai Huberman reports that the army is supplying arms to the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria, and is reinforcing its own units in the region. "The army no longer has any doubts," said Huberman today, "that we will see an ongoing escalation of tension and violence from now through September 13, the scheduled date for the declaration of the Palestinian state. Both sides are preparing for a real showdown in September. Arafat is no longer interested in preserving quiet; he sees the enthusiasm of his people over the events in Lebanon and on Nakba Day [when Palestinian forces opened fire on Israeli soldiers]."

Huberman said that one scenario for which the IDF is preparing is that of Palestinian citizens marching en-masse upon Jewish settlements: "The IDF has solutions for a civilian takeover of this nature. They involve the Hagmar ["haganah merhavit" - regional defense] soldiers who live in the settlements themselves, thus that it all comes down to the communities defending themselves within the framework of, and with reinforcements from, the army. A more extreme scenario is a genuine armed clash, with tanks and helicopters and the like. The PLO is afraid of this, as it knows that it cannot hope to compete with the IDF in this area. During the recent clashes, it was this Israeli advantage that forced Arafat to give the order to cease fire." Huberman added that little by little, the PA is turning its para-military police force into a real army, albeit without heavy weapons.

A resident of Netzarim was injured when a terrorist-planted explosive went off near a convoy of cars last night. An official of Netzarim told Arutz-7 today, "In the last two months, there have been three grave incidents of this nature, but there have also been many other incidents that have gone unnoticed. There was a shooting on a resident this week, a shooting into Kfar Darom before that, and the like, but no one is paying attention."

The security cabinet met again this morning for yet another discussion of the Palestinian negotiations. Prime Minister Barak has made an official proposal for a Clinton-Barak-Arafat summit in Washington two weeks from now, despite American and Palestinian evaluations that the "ground is not yet ready for such a summit." Foreign Minister David Levy is also not optimistic, saying yesterday, "Summits are not convened merely for the sake of convening them."

THE DANGER TO THE STATE OF ISRAEL
by Moshe Hagar

First and foremost, danger is masked in transferring territory from the most important area, the Jordan Valley, which is our defense line against the eastern front during a general war. Accessibility to the Jordan Valley will be involve warfare; the Palestinian army will delay or prevent access to this key territory. During exercises conducted lately, it took the IDF a full day to reach this key territory, as a result of Palestinian roadblocks; this is prior to a full withdrawal. In addition, our emergency warehouses are located in their areas in Judea and Samaria, around Jerusalem, in order to protect Jerusalem. The accessibility to these will be exceedingly difficult. The Israeli army is based primarily upon reserve soldiers, making the time schedule extremely significant. Every minute is liable to be critical. For example, in order to access emergency war reserve-warehouses between Jericho and Jerusalem, we must pass through Anatot and Hizma, both in Palestinian territory. Every person with any intelligence realizes the significance of such happenings during a state of emergency.

AS A RESULT, FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE FOUNDING OF THE STATE, THE NEXT ALL-OUT WAR WILL FACE THE ISRAELI ARMY FROM FRONT AND BACK, with Jordanian and Iraqi forces from the east and with Palestinian forces from behind.

In addition, within the framework of a withdrawal, the IDF will be forced to abandon emergency warning stations, situated high in the mountains, above Hatzur and Mt. Aival. As opposed to those casting illusions, despite the technology, topographic height was, and still remains the most significant factor when war approaches.

These early warning stations are of vital importance, providing critical data and warning. In place of this data we are offered data via an American satellite. However, experience has taught us that the Americans supply us with minimal data, and at times intentionally block us out, as happened during the Gulf War.

Terrorists will easily be able to smuggle weapons into Yesha via Jordan, for the security strip will be 2 - 3 kilometers wide. As a result of the opening of the Gazza port to Palestinian ships, weapons will flow freely, including missiles against tanks and missiles against airplanes, which we will be faced with during the next armed uprising. Judea and Samaria are liable to become a second Lebanon, with all that implies.

Concession of the Jordan Valley to the Palestinians has additional implications: the very real possibility that the Hashemite Kingdom in Jordan will collapse. The majority of the Jordanian population is Palestinian. This will create an eastern front from Teheran and Baghdad, leading to the outskirts of Kfar Saba and Netanya.

The greatest danger will be to Jerusalem, being adjacent to an enemy Arab population of 250,000 people. This population will have access to the center of Jerusalem, and will derive strength from the Palestinian State in Abu Dis. Jerusalem will be threatened by the possibility of a Palestinian take-over: Barak plans on giving the PLO municipal autonomy within the city, as he has with Abu Dis, and will make possible transfer, later on, of the area's security.

An agreement is usually expected to prevent war. However, unfortunately the opposite is true. These agreements create a situation whereby it is worthwhile for the enemy to fight us, because he will have the ablity to easily be victorious. The Palestinians are today speaking of adopting the same tactics used by Hizbullah in Lebanon, and they will be able to reach the fences of our communities. Will the State of Israel be able to deal with the slaughter of a community, G-d forbid? The withdrawal from Lebanon was defined as an Israeli weakness and the collapse our military capability. This created a stimulus for declaring war. All additional concessions will create a situation whereby Israel will be defeated without a battle. Security regulations prevent me from revealing further details. But it is clear that Israel will stand before mortal danger.

THE DANGERS TO RESIDENTS OF YESHA

• Removal of the IDF from military bases and from a majority of the communities, thereby abandoning 100,000 settlers.
• Total control by the terrorists of all the of the lifelines - water, electricity, food, evacuation of women about to give birth, people injured, etc. Children being transported daily to and from school, mothers and fathers traveling to and from work, shopping, will be a matter of life and death.
• In the event of an all-out war, the primary IDF forces will be engaged in stopping the enemy on the borders. Yesha will be abandoned and there will not be anyone to prevent thousands of armed terrorists from attacking communities. In the event of an attack on one of the communities, or on several at one time, the IDF will not be able to come to their aid and save them, especially if this will cause an all-out conflict with the Palestinian Authority.
• In addition: According to the present orders concerning use of firearms, it is forbidden to shoot at anyone not carrying weapons. Thousands of Arabs are liable to attack, using their bodies as weapons against IDF outposts or communities, without being fired on. The distance between major Palestinian population centers and Jewish communities is very short. This is liable to lead to a general slaughter of people, G-d forbid. During the battles following "Nakba Day" - The Day of Catastrophe, a few weeks ago, the real cause that ended the violence were two helicopters flown above the rioters. The P.A. was threatened with the bombing of their headquarters. However, during a war, these helicopters will be at the front and will not be able to deal with Palestinian threats, which will ignite the territories. This is liable to be a one-on-one battle, with a clear advantage to the Palestinians, against Jewish communities facing surprise attack, isolated and exposed.

Therefore, I have decided that with such a situation at hand, I cannot hide behind my army rank and sit quietly. I sense that I must warn that the expected dangers as a result of the current process are very real and very terrible. I turn to every Jew to act now, doing everything possible to save our people and our state.

In summary, I add three points:

1. I am not dealing with the ethical values of transfer of Eretz Yisrael, and not with the subject of water. Both of these are of supreme importance and should be dealt with separately. I am dealing with security and saving of life.
2. The idea that peace and economic interests may prevent war may be correct. However these considerations are limited by time. We are obligated to our children and the following generations.
3. Even if theoretically Judea and Samaria were to be an arms-free zone (which today they are not), Palestinian control of the border with Egypt and Jordan will allow the flow of two million Palestinians into their state. They will undoubtedly want to improve their standard of living, for which the Palestinian Authority will be unable to help them. The distance from here to Arafat's total loss of control is minimal. Escalation, even against his will, is guaranteed. The pressure will overflow into our borders, with clear significance: Israel will be overrun with Palestinian refugees, with "tourists," and unwanted and illegal Arab immigrants, (which has already begun and includes tens of thousands), violence, theft, etc.

(Ed. note - Moshe Hagar served as a full colonel in the IDF and is presently in the reserves. He resides in the Southern Hebron Hills community, Beit Yatir.)