GUESSING GAME
by Aleksander Wagner
While writing the "Flat Deal" an old league hand came into my mind. Another guessing game but with a twist to it: the outcome wasn't flat at all. Let's say you were West and it all happened like this:
J8 KQ94
A10863 N K6
AQ972 W E 3
6 S AKQJ83
My table The closed room
W N E S W N E S
--------------------- ---------------------
1H p 2C p p p 1C p
2D p 2S p 1H p 1S p
3D p 3H(?) p 2D p 3NT p
4H p p p 4D(?) p 4H p
p p
If clubs break 3-3 or 4-2 you have either 11 or 12 tricks in NT, the 12th trick depending on the diamond finesse. But somehow on both tables East-West landed in rather dubious 4H.
Your partner's 3H was a clear-cut case of spring madness (he should have had a strong hand with a good three or even four card fit in hearts), he clearly should have bid either pessimistic but natural 3NT or more optimistic but still justifiable 4NT.
In the closed room the situation was more delicate: West could have bid 4D to show his fifth diamond, but he shouldn't have done it since the chance of a misfit was too high.
But all this was history. On both tables North led the spade 3, South took with the Ace and returned the spade 2 which North ruffed. The 2 of spades was a clear Lavinthal signal and North obediently followed with a club. South's intentions were obvious: he wanted his partnet to cut you off your dummy and he definitely succeeded! You drew two rounds of trumps finishing with the King and had to decide whether to draw dummy's high spades or clubs, without your opponents ruffing with their last trump.
The decision was a tough one, you could find good reasons for drawing spades and almost equally good reasons for drawing clubs. Did I say almost? Let's see:
(1) South had six spades, how probable it was that he had three hearts? Wasn't it more probable that North had four hearts together with the spade singleton? If so, South had another trump left and we couldn't play spades! On my table West reasoned along this line and played the Ace of clubs.
(2) In the closed room West asked himself why North led his singleton! Would he have led it with two almost certain trump tricks? Would he have wanted to ruff? West decided it wasn't very probable, hence North had three trumps at most and at this stage had no trumps left. This West played the King of spades from the dummy.
Wouldn't you like to know what really happened in this hand? First of all I was South and not West. The guess luckily enough wasn't mine to make but my opponent's.
The full hand looked as follows:
3
J92
KJ1085
10952
J8 KQ94
A10863 N K6
AQ972 W E 3
6 S AKQJ83
A107652
Q74
64
74
To make the long story short, my opponent's guess was wrong and he went down, our teammate in the closed room made the contract, and the only question that remains is whether it really was a guess.
My opinion is very simple: less than average player would probably try clubs (spade they already ruffed, so let's try clubs!). For an average West player it was a real 50-50 guess. But the better player West was, the higher the chance of him considering the level of his LHO (North). Our North (my partner) was an expert and I don't think he would have wanted to ruff with QJ92 in trumps, although a lesser player might lead automatically without even considered something as far-fetched as this.
Correct me if I'm wrong.
