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ASSOCIATED PRESS, Monday October 29 11:45 AM ET
Megawati: Indonesia May Explode
By SLOBODAN LEKIC, Associated Press Writer
JAKARTA, Indonesia - Nearing the 100-day mark as president of Indonesia, Megawati Sukarnoputri warned Sunday that the world's fourth most populous nation is in danger of breaking up and becoming the ``Balkans of the East.''
``If (violence) continues, we will split into lots of small races, into lots of small countries all of which will be weak in the face of outside forces,'' Megawati said at a ceremony commemorating the birth of Indonesia's nationalist movement in 1928.
``We will become the Balkans of the East,'' she said.
The president passes the 100-day milestone on Tuesday. Despite Sunday's warning, she is increasingly accused of doing little to defuse multiple ethnic and religious conflicts.
Analysts say Megawati's vague appeals for rival groups to end hostilities by simply working together indicate she underestimates the political complexities facing the vast archipelago.
On July 23, Megawati replaced Abdurrahman Wahid, the first freely elected president after 32 years of military dictatorship by President Suharto. The national assembly ousted Wahid after 21 erratic months in office during which Megawati served as vice president.
As head of the largest party in the assembly, Megawati is widely expected to stay in power until at least 2004 when elections are scheduled.
So far, her administration has managed to attract foreign financial support that had been denied to Wahid.
However, it has failed to carry out reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund. Plans to privatize key industrial and banking concerns have stalled, foreign investment is at a standstill and corruption remains endemic.
Critics charge she has abandoned Wahid's push to improve human rights and strengthen Indonesia's young democracy in an effort to win support from military hard-liners and key business interests.
Some of her popularity is based on the fact that she is daughter of Indonesia's founding President Sukarno. But unlike her firebrand father, Megawati rarely speaks to the media and remains conservative in words and actions.
She has recently struggled to balance Indonesia's strong ties with the West against rising Islamic anger over U.S.-led attacks in Afghanistan.
She has also repeatedly expressed fears that East Timor's breaking away in 1999 has sharply increased the likelihood of national disintegration.
Secessionist sentiments in Riau, Maluku, Sulawesi, Kalimantan and Irian Jaya provinces have been stoked by years of heavy-handed rule by the central government and massive human rights violations by the military. Thousands have died in an ongoing rebellion in Aceh, on the northern tip of Sumatra island.
Julia Suryakusuma, a Jakarta political observer, said Megawati's administration has proven more stable than Wahid's. But Suryakusuma added that the stability comes from Megawati's tendency to court, not confront, the entrenched political and military elite.
``Her management style is weak because she's very cautious,'' Suryakusuma said. ``She has made some firm statements about corruption, which is a good sign, but there has been no real action.''
The armed forces have traditionally played a key role in Indonesian politics. All four of Megawati's predecessors were deposed after losing support of the army brass.
Copyright © 2001 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
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