Asia Times, Sep 14, 2006
Osama's on the move again
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
"Osama bin Laden and other terrorists are still in hiding. Our message to them is
clear: no matter how long it takes, America will find you, and we will bring you to
justice."
- President George W Bush, September 11, 2006
"On the anniversary of 9/11, the trail [of bin Laden] is stone-cold."
- US intelligence official
KARACHI - Osama bin Laden is on the move, and Tuesday's terror attack on the! US
Embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus, could be a tangible result of this.
Exclusive information obtained by Asia Times Online shows that the al-Qaeda leader
recently traveled from the South Waziristan tribal area in Pakistan to somewhere in
the eastern Afghan provinces of Kunar and Nooristan, or possibly Bajour, a s mall
tribal agency in the Federally Administered Tribal Area of Pakistan in North-West
Frontier Province.
According to a witness, bin Laden traveled in a double-cabin truck with a few armed
guards - not in a convoy. Apparently, this is how he now prefers to move around.
Bin Laden, with a US$25 million bounty on his head, has not been sighted for some
time, and he has not been seen on any new videotape since late 2004, although audio
tapes purporting to be him speaking surfaced this year.
At the same time, a close aide responsible for bin Laden's logistics and media
relations told Asia Times Online that bin Laden had recovered from serious
kidney-related ailments.
In Tuesday's attack in Damascus, four men tried to drive two explosives-laden cars
into the US Embassy compound. Four of them and a security official were killed. One
of the cars exploded outside the compound.
The incident not only carries al-Qaeda hallmarks, it is also very much in line with the
al-Qaeda leadership's focus, agreed on during the Israel-Hezbollah war, to extend the
flames of conflict across the region.
In this vein, bin Laden's No 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, warned on Monday that the Persian
Gulf region and Israel would be the next targets of al-Qaeda. He was speaking in a
video message released to coincide with the fifth anniversary of the September 11
terrorist attacks on the United States.
In addition to bin Laden's improved health, al-Qaeda has in the past few months
gained some breathing room to regroup and solidify its logistics as a result of the
situation in the semi-autonomous North and South Waziristan tribal areas.
This area has long been home to al-Qaeda elements, but until recently they had been
under intense pressure from Pakistan's security forces. However, as the tribals gained
more strength - some Taliban-affiliated districts have even been declared independent
of Islamabad - the authorities realized they were fighting a losing battle.
This culminated last week in security officials and the "Pakistani Taliban" agreeing to
a temporary ceasefire. Previously choked channels between the Waziristans and
other parts of Pakistan were now fully opened, allowing al-Qaeda to start moving
money again.
The bigger playing field
A new dynamic among militant groups has emerged in Egypt to complement
al-Qaeda's designs in the Middle East. Tuesday's Damascus attack could also be an
illustration of this.
Many youths previously associated with the militant Gamaa Islamiya of Egypt have
formed independent cells, while some Egyptian youths of Palestinian origin have
created underground organizations to target the pro-Israeli Egyptian government and
US interests.
Credit goes to al-Qaeda that in the past six months it established inroads into these
organizations, to the extent that they are now directly under the command of the
al-Qaeda leadership.
This was confirmed by Zawahiri last month in a videotape aired on Al-Jazeera news
network: "We announce to the Islamic nation the good news of the unification of a
great faction of the knights of the Gamaa Islamiya ... with the al-Qaeda group."
Al-Qaeda has evolved into more of an ideological inspiration to sharpen Muslim
reaction against the West and create a backlash than a militant group. Five years of
the US-led "war on terror" damaged its structure and it was forced to melt into the
local resistance movements of Iraq and Afghanistan. Already, the Taliban and Iraqi
resistances complement each other, sharing experience, skills and even logistics.
From this position, al-Qaeda will work to bind all local resistance movements into one
coordinated unit against the US and its allies, with the ultimate aim of creating a
universal Muslim backlash against the West.
The Israel-Hezbollah war proved the ideal starting point for this plan. The successful
defense of Lebanon by Hezbollah was largely taken in the Arab world as the first Arab
victory against Israel. Sentiment on the streets of the Middle East turned noticeably
against the US, Israel and pro-West Muslim rulers.
Al-Qaeda wants to keep this mood, and inflame it even further. Attacks like the one in
Damascus could be such pot-boilers. More, and bigger, ones are most likely being
plotted by the masterminds sitting in the tribal areas between Pakistan and
Afghanistan.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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